COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (2 Viewers)

[UncleTrvlingJim]

One of the most frustrating things about this is the uncertainty. Honestly, if we told everyone to just stay home for 2 weeks, no friends over. No going out to eat, just hunker down for two weeks. And then followed that up with tons of testing sites, so that anyone can get tested, and tested frequently, coupled with targeted quarantines for people who test positive and anyone in direct contact with them. We could get back to something like 80% of normal in 3 or 4 weeks. And just keep that up until a vaccine arrives.

However, we all know that isn't going to happen b/c people will break isolation. Some people will not get tested even if they start to feel sick (and probably still go to work), and so the odds of actually keeping this small and contained until a vaccine is developed is pretty small, and instead we're probably going to have to do a month of somewhat normal activity and a month of lockdowns alternating for months.

Sigh.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Jesus Christ here is a another Darwinism award.

Mandeville country club catches heat for open pool, bingo party during coronavirus crisis

While gyms and other recreational facilities have been closing in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Beau Chene Country Club in Mandeville has let its members know

www.nola.com

and if you are wondering they still don’t get it.

They are correct that the virus probably won't be transmitted in a pool. And this would probably be ok in a scenario where the virus is mostly contained (see my post above). However, since we're in an outbreak right now, crap like this prevents us from getting to a point where we can do what they are suggesting. Grrrr....

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

I feel like this an important thread for us all so I want to make a comment that I hope is not taken as a personal slight. There are a few posters who are consistently leaning toward the sensational and it's making it difficult to read the thread for information. If there's a piece of information, an observation, or an opinion that doesn't align with worst case scenario projections, we don't have to immediately respond with a dramatic 'reality check'.

I hope everyone is doing well. We are ok so far. The information, work uncertainty, and life changes are stressful and I want to be able to read this thread without feeling like a few people are deliberately twisting the knife every page.

Peace.

What I've had a hard time balancing is the news from the White House and where does it cross the "political" line in our discussions. It does play into our discussions because it is one of the news sources that are a part of the many other reports we gather. And it is our source for how we, the US, are combating it. Feelings get bent when the White House gets critiqued, but we're critiquing all of the sources and that's why I find this thread so valuable. The POTUS's penchant for exaggeration don't work well in this situation. Do you judge it as positive spin for the morale of the country? Or do you take it as continuing to sugarcoat the facts? And it doesn't help when Trump continues to slip in potshots at the previous administration as it dilutes the seriousness of the message and turns into a political message opportunity. It gets critiqued because he's still sending mixed messages. After gleaning his statements, there is some positives to take from it, and a some exaggeration and half-truths. We need honest information right now.

Fact-Checking 5 Trump Administration Claims On The Coronavirus Pandemic

The White House has announced a flurry of actions it says are making a difference against the coronavirus pandemic, but a closer look finds some aren't what they seem and others remain to be executed.

www.npr.org

 

[HoustonGold]

They are correct that the virus probably won't be transmitted in a pool. And this would probably be ok in a scenario where the virus is mostly contained (see my post above). However, since we're in an outbreak right now, crap like this prevents us from getting to a point where we can do what they are suggesting. Grrrr....

Quoting the article

“On the coronavirus section of its website, the Centers for Disease Control says that proper maintenance and disinfection with chlorine and bromine "should remove or inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19."
But some worry that people in a pool could increase the chances of airborne transmission.
Sabrina Pierre, who lives near Beau Chene and was among those who called Lorino, said the concern is for the bigger picture. "Are they carriers, are they going out in public and leaving the neighborhood?"
She said that Beaver told her husband during a phone call that he was insulted at the insinuation that the club doesn't care about its members.
"Your actions say otherwise when they directly contradict what the governor is telling people to do, " Pierre said. "This is bigger than your pool party."

 

[superchuck500]

New Orleans Bounce DJ Black N Mild Dies at 44 After Coronavirus Diagnosis — Billboard

Longstanding New Orleans bounce DJ and radio personality Black N Mild has died after testing positive for coronavirus. The Orleans Parish coroner's office confirmed Friday (March 20) that the DJ, born Oliver Stokes Jr., died Thursday after contracting the virus. He was 44.

apple.news

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Quoting the article

“On the coronavirus section of its website, the Centers for Disease Control says that proper maintenance and disinfection with chlorine and bromine "should remove or inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19."
But some worry that people in a pool could increase the chances of airborne transmission.
Sabrina Pierre, who lives near Beau Chene and was among those who called Lorino, said the concern is for the bigger picture. "Are they carriers, are they going out in public and leaving the neighborhood?"
She said that Beaver told her husband during a phone call that he was insulted at the insinuation that the club doesn't care about its members.
"Your actions say otherwise when they directly contradict what the governor is telling people to do, " Pierre said. "This is bigger than your pool party."

And Sabina Pierre is correct. Since we're in an outbreak right now, and the New Orleans area is one of the hotspots. Any concentration of people (even if they are at tables spread apart), just prolongs the spread of this disease.

If we had this mostly contained with lots of testing available, we could get to a point where people can start doing modified versions of their normal activities... but stuff like this delays that, and quite frankly I don't have faith that people would follow the rules after we get to a "new normal".

 

[saint-fan]

I'm reading links off of the one SuperChuck just posted that kind of addresses this and CajuninVA's concerns.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

How can we stop viral overload before it reaches the point of needing a ventilator?

Can we start testing (and more importantly monitoring) people who have been exposed, built immunity, and have "recovered" to see the effects of repeated exposure? Can we rotate staff to prevent that overload?

The diagnostic testing that's being done now is not the same as testing for antibodies. To me, if you've been exposed and have built immunity, and are not shedding, you shouldn't need to be quarantined. Right? I'd imagine you'd have to build in a time factor so your body would be ready to fight the next invasion.

Edit: Here's one just now being marketed: $10 a piece
https://www.biospace.com/article/re...-10-minute-test-for-covid-19-virus-exposure-/

I hesitated posting until I read this:

This could be/is a positive. I've read (posted here somewhere back thread) that there have been some beneficial impact of using recovered people's plasma to assist infected people. Combining these efforts might help more of those infected.

 

[bclemms]

Some testing numbers. These are the states with the highest percentage of positive tests. Pretty good indicator which states are severely limited by testing.

1) Alabama- 79%
2) New Jersey- 72%
3) Maryland- 61%
4) Ohio- 55%
5) Deleware- 52%
6) Tennessee- 29%
7) Lousiana- 28%
8) New York- 25%
9) Conneticut- 24%
10) Hawaii- 22%
11) Michigan- 21%
12) Georgia- 18%
13) Missouri- 17%
14) Arizona- 17%
15) Indiana-14%

The lowest percentages belong to these states, all are below 3%. Ak, ND, Mt, SD, Wy, Ne, NH, Vt, NM


Fewest test issued per capita belongs to Alabama, Maryland, Missouri, Tennesse, New Jersey, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Florida. Of these, Alabama and Maryland stand out as the most extreme cases of under testing. All of these states combined have tested less than Washington.

 

[bclemms]

This could be/is a positive. I've read (posted here somewhere back thread) that there have been some beneficial impact of using recovered people's plasma to assist infected people. Combining these efforts might help more of those infected.

It's also huge to see just how at risk the world is during a 2nd wave. If we get up to around 35% of people having immunity the second wave wont be that bad. If it's around 3% immunity then it would be catastrophic.

 

[Snakehead]

 

[LonghornSaint]

It's also huge to see just how at risk the world is during a 2nd wave. If we get up to around 35% of people having immunity the second wave wont be that bad. If it's around 3% immunity then it would be catastrophic.

I would think a good approach for this would be to encourage everyone, over the next few months to get tested, and if they test positive for covid-19 antibodies, they should be encouraged to donate plasma, with that plasma labeled as [covid-19 recovered] and frozen for future use if necessary.

According to the red cross website, plasma can be stored for up to a year if frozen, so that would help.

Not certain if this was the link that @saint-fan was referring to, but this is promising...

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

How the blood of coronavirus survivors may protect others from COVID-19

Scientists racing to stave off a tidal wave of coronavirus infections show renewed interest in a little-known medicine: convalescent plasma.

www.latimes.com

 

[bclemms]

I would think a good approach for this would be to encourage everyone, over the next few months to get tested, and if they test positive for covid-19 antibodies, they should be encouraged to donate plasma, with that plasma labeled as [covid-19 recovered] and frozen for future use if necessary.

According to the red cross website, plasma can be stored for up to a year if frozen, so that would help.

Not certain if this was the link that @saint-fan was referring to, but this is promising...

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

How the blood of coronavirus survivors may protect others from COVID-19

Scientists racing to stave off a tidal wave of coronavirus infections show renewed interest in a little-known medicine: convalescent plasma.

www.latimes.com

Yes, would likely be very helpful. Still a long way away from that right now though. We still have tens of thousands of sick people that can't get tested.

 

[DaveXA]

After reading some of the last few pages, I do want to say that there is some room for commentary on the approach to dealing with this pandemic and whether we think the measures being taken are a good idea, i.e. lockdowns vs. 'herd' immunity, more testing vs. less and such. I think these are important parts of the discussion.

An example, a poster earlier talked about a hospital busting out windows in order to ventilate the air to get the carbon dioxide and virus out of circulation. But this flies in the face of the previous thought that the virus isn't aerosolized. So I think a discussion of studies is germane to the thread topic. Facts are certainly important, but facts are often useless without some sort of context.

 

[Krodwhodat]

 

[bclemms]

Yeah, this isn't good.

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients

“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy sheet, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”

www.propublica.org