Derek Carr was a top 10 QB in 2023 (1 Viewer)

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TenTwo

TenTwo

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I’ve lost half of you at the title. But stay with me…

How do you evaluate and rank QB play? This can be an exercise that’s both objective and subjective. It’s easy to be swayed by the eye, either positivity or negatively.

I think many people default to statistics, so which statistics are most important?

Here is my case for Carr as a top 10 QB:

Did you take care of the ball?
8 ints, 3 fumbles lost, 11 total which ties him for 5th best in the league at taking care of the football.

How about TD/INT ratio?
25/8 TD/INT ratio or 3.13 which has him 6th best in the league

We care about completion percentage right?
His completion percentage of 68.4% ranks him 5th in the league for QBs with over 200 attempts.

Did he take too many sacks?
His sack rate of 5.5% is 9th best of QBs with at least 200 snaps.

Okay what’s his passer rating?
97.7% which is 10th best in the league (min 200 snaps)

The only stats he doesn’t shine in, yards per game (15th) and yards per attempt (14th). Still good.

If you weighted these categories evenly, that gives you an average number of 8.

Even if you’re not a stats guy (and if this describes you I’m sure you think Drew Brees was overrated) Carr never had a choke moment. He consistently came through in the clutch when the lights were brightest. He played with heart. I think you’ll have a hard time disputing this.

This is the same fan base that will tell you how great Archie Manning was despite him playing on terrible teams but turn around and tell you that Carr has been mediocre his entire career despite the fact that this year was his first year ever to play on a team with a top 20 defense.

Instead of digging in on an opinion you developed in week 8, step back and evaluate the total picture. It’s okay that you were wrong to boo him. It’s just time to admit it and forgive yourself.

Derek Carr was a top 10 QB in 2023.

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He was 17th in DVOA, hard to consider him a top ten QB last year because that adjusts his performance for opponent and situation. Watching some 2021 Vikings games yesterday and today (because of Kubiak), one thing Carr will need to improve on is being more aggressive in the red zone. Cousins is throwing contested TD’s in those games that Carr likely would shy away from. You can’t always scheme a guy wide open, you have to give your guys a chance to make a play when they get one on one.
 
I’m not putting Carr ahead of the following QBs when healthy:

Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow, Allen, Stroud, Lawrence, Stafford, Herbert, Purdy, Goff, Rodgers, Dak, Love, Hurts, Cousins.

He’s in a group with Tua, Mayfield, Geno Smith, etc who can look really good when stuff around them is perfect.
 
Saint Spud said:
I’m not putting Carr ahead of the following QBs when healthy:

Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow, Allen, Stroud, Lawrence, Stafford, Herbert, Purdy, Goff, Rodgers, Dak, Love, Hurts, Cousins.

He’s in a group with Tua, Mayfield, Geno Smith, etc who can look really good when stuff around them is perfect.
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Respectfully, you’re reaching. Stats don’t lie but I’ll take a shot at arguing subjectively.

Lawrence is two years away from competing for a starting job. Rodgers is on the decline. Dak is a choke artist. Goff is a choke artist. Stafford is brittle. Love is a choke artist. Hurts is a choke artist. Cousins is a choke artist. Jackson is a choke artist. Tua is a choke artist. Mayfield, you guessed it, a choke artist.

Your list of players you place above and on par with Carr is trash. Respectfully.
 
Rouxble said:
He was 17th in DVOA, hard to consider him a top ten QB last year because that adjusts his performance for opponent and situation. Watching some 2021 Vikings games yesterday and today (because of Kubiak), one thing Carr will need to improve on is being more aggressive in the red zone. Cousins is throwing contested TD’s in those games that Carr likely would shy away from. You can’t always scheme a guy wide open, you have to give your guys a chance to make a play when they get one on one.
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You bring up some good points about being more aggressive and throwing contested balls. I agree that has to improve and I will have to say that Carr was doing a better job at that towards the end of the season especially in the last game against the Falcons.Maybe he finally developed his trust in the young guys that gave him the confidence to throw such? I sure hope so and carry that over to the next season. If that happens, he can be a top ten QB.
 
TenTwo said:
Respectfully, you’re reaching. Stats don’t lie but I’ll take a shot at arguing subjectively.

Lawrence is two years away from competing for a starting job. Rodgers is on the decline. Dak is a choke artist. Goff is a choke artist. Stafford is brittle. Love is a choke artist. Hurts is a choke artist. Cousins is a choke artist. Jackson is a choke artist. Tua is a choke artist. Mayfield, you guessed it, a choke artist.

Your list of players you place above and on par with Carr is trash. Respectfully.
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Whew. I’m glad you were “respectful” :ROFLMAO:

But I’ll let others dissect your opinions on why you’d take Carr over the QBs you mentioned. Should be a fun thread to read lol
 
TenTwo, I stayed with you though I disagreed--until your reply post.

I would suggest that Carr's numbers in 2023 were inflated by the Saints playing a historically weak schedule and that there is merit to Matt Moscona's argument that Derek Carr is the Emperor of Empty Yards.

I would also suggest that most of the quarterbacks you assailed as "choke artists" will be ranked higher in the quarterback rankings we will see before the 2024 season. And the quarterbacks you think little of have actually played in big games unlike Derek Carr, who in 10 seasons has had only three winning seasons (including the Saints' 2023 season) and has played in only one playoff game.
 
RJ in Lafayette said:
TenTwo, I stayed with you though I disagreed--until your reply post.

I would suggest that Carr's numbers in 2023 were inflated by the Saints playing a historically weak schedule and that there is merit to Matt Moscona's argument that Derek Carr is the Emperor of Empty Yards.

I would also suggest that most of the quarterbacks you assailed as "choke artists" will be ranked higher in the quarterback rankings we will see before the 2024 season. And the quarterbacks you think little of have actually played in big games unlike Derek Carr, who in 10 seasons has had only three winning seasons (including the Saints' 2023 season) and has played in only one playoff game.
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Lazy take. How did HE perform when it mattered? That’s like saying Brees was trash when his defenses were terrible. Only so much one player can do.
 
I think next season we will be able to say for sure if Carr is the guy or not. We will probably address the line in the draft or free agency and add at least one more weapon. We have a new coordinator and play caller, so can’t point the finger at that anymore. He will be healthy with a whole year and an offseason playing with the receivers, so again no excuses.
It’s not really about stats for me. Quarterbacks should be judged by wins and losses. Taking care of the football and getting the protections right are sometimes more important than yards and touchdowns. It’s a huge show me year for both Carr and DA. In my opinion if we don’t win the division we should move on from both, and then a lot of the responsibility shifts to Loomis who will face the toughest offseason maybe in his entire career.
 
TenTwo said:
Respectfully, you’re reaching. Stats don’t lie but I’ll take a shot at arguing subjectively.

Lawrence is two years away from competing for a starting job. Rodgers is on the decline. Dak is a choke artist. Goff is a choke artist. Stafford is brittle. Love is a choke artist. Hurts is a choke artist. Cousins is a choke artist. Jackson is a choke artist. Tua is a choke artist. Mayfield, you guessed it, a choke artist.

Your list of players you place above and on par with Carr is trash. Respectfully.
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I kinda have a tough time when people refer to players as “trash”. I usually reserve that term to describe a severely dirty player, but not anyone who has enough talent to make it to the NFL, let alone show something. I get what you are saying. For me, it’s Patrick Mahomes and everyone else can fight for 2nd place. He’s the only elite QB that I see in the NFL. Dont get me wrong, I would happily take Allen, Burrow, Lamar, etc, but I can not (in good faith) put DC4 into the top 10 as of right now. So do I believe he can get there? Sure he can, but I need to see it from a winning standpoint first. Just my $.02
 

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