TBH Atlanta played their cards right. You have to look at this like a card player where the other players (GMs) are trying to figure out your moves.
1. Did Atlanta over pay for Cousins - No, that was his market value. Minnesota offered the same deal but for only 3 years, because they were going to draft a QB. Cousins wanted more security so Atlanta offered 4 years. Atlanta paid what any other team would have to pay to beat Minnesota's offer.
2. Atlanta could have given that money to a journeyman QB, and drafted a QB. No, if the intent is to win the division, by maximizing the offense, a journeyman QB is not beating out Carr, Mayfield, or a bouncing back Young at QB. Plus, you'd be tipping your hat in the draft, and other GMs could then counter.
3. Atlanta could have given that money to a journeyman QB, and drafted a QB. No, once again you lose leverage in the draft for trading up for a QB because teams know you NEED a QB not wanting one. This also motivates lower seeded teams to trade ahead of you. You need ALL teams convinced you're intentions are not to draft a QB
Signing Cousins was the right move for a multiple of reasons. Assuming he comes back healthy it solidifies the most important position for 12-14 years if paired with drafting a promising QB. It also throws the sent off other GMs guessing your moves. If Atlanta didn't sign Cousins every GM would know Atlanta is in the market for a QB in the draft. This would have motivated Min, Vegas, or Denver to move ahead of Atlanta if they valued Penix higher than McCarthy or Nix. Signing Cousins clearly threw the sent off drafting Penix by just how everyone reacted to the pick. You can validate this even more by how fast McCarthy and Nix immediately came off the board soon there after.
I'm not saying singing Cousins was meant to be a smoke screen for drafting Penix, but it was, and if any team wanted to trade back Atlanta could come from the position of not needing to give up as much draft capital because they were perceived with drafting a later round QB, Atlanta was tied to Rattler of all things.
So, in the end the ONLY real risk was money if Cousins couldn't give you 2 solid years and Penix wasn't ready to come in sooner. The good thing is Atlanta front loaded the contract so if Cousins didn't come back to form (which we all saw he didn't), it was structured like a 2 year rental. 3rd year is 10mil in dead money, 4th year is no cap hit if released.
I expected the Falcons to release Cousins after two years regardless, unless Penix was not impressing. So, when the Falcons signed Cousins they knew they were going to eat cap. They just didn't know how much or how soon, but they knew it was unavoidable. The rational was if Penix lives up to the hype he'd be on a rookie deal and all that money going to Cousins was simply the cost of masking your draft strategy and giving Penix time to mature and learn from Cousins while you're racking up division wins.
1. Did Atlanta over pay for Cousins - No, that was his market value. Minnesota offered the same deal but for only 3 years, because they were going to draft a QB. Cousins wanted more security so Atlanta offered 4 years. Atlanta paid what any other team would have to pay to beat Minnesota's offer.
2. Atlanta could have given that money to a journeyman QB, and drafted a QB. No, if the intent is to win the division, by maximizing the offense, a journeyman QB is not beating out Carr, Mayfield, or a bouncing back Young at QB. Plus, you'd be tipping your hat in the draft, and other GMs could then counter.
3. Atlanta could have given that money to a journeyman QB, and drafted a QB. No, once again you lose leverage in the draft for trading up for a QB because teams know you NEED a QB not wanting one. This also motivates lower seeded teams to trade ahead of you. You need ALL teams convinced you're intentions are not to draft a QB
Signing Cousins was the right move for a multiple of reasons. Assuming he comes back healthy it solidifies the most important position for 12-14 years if paired with drafting a promising QB. It also throws the sent off other GMs guessing your moves. If Atlanta didn't sign Cousins every GM would know Atlanta is in the market for a QB in the draft. This would have motivated Min, Vegas, or Denver to move ahead of Atlanta if they valued Penix higher than McCarthy or Nix. Signing Cousins clearly threw the sent off drafting Penix by just how everyone reacted to the pick. You can validate this even more by how fast McCarthy and Nix immediately came off the board soon there after.
I'm not saying singing Cousins was meant to be a smoke screen for drafting Penix, but it was, and if any team wanted to trade back Atlanta could come from the position of not needing to give up as much draft capital because they were perceived with drafting a later round QB, Atlanta was tied to Rattler of all things.
So, in the end the ONLY real risk was money if Cousins couldn't give you 2 solid years and Penix wasn't ready to come in sooner. The good thing is Atlanta front loaded the contract so if Cousins didn't come back to form (which we all saw he didn't), it was structured like a 2 year rental. 3rd year is 10mil in dead money, 4th year is no cap hit if released.
I expected the Falcons to release Cousins after two years regardless, unless Penix was not impressing. So, when the Falcons signed Cousins they knew they were going to eat cap. They just didn't know how much or how soon, but they knew it was unavoidable. The rational was if Penix lives up to the hype he'd be on a rookie deal and all that money going to Cousins was simply the cost of masking your draft strategy and giving Penix time to mature and learn from Cousins while you're racking up division wins.
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