How Conflicted Are You In Winning or Getting a Better Draft Pick (5 Viewers)

[Winter]

We have 8 picks in next years draft. We haven't had more than 7 since 2015. I think our draft situation will be fine. May even give us a chance to move up. Not something I would do, but with more to work with, thats always a possibility. Best thing the Saints can do is to continue to work out the issues and make changes/moves that make this a more attractive place for the next HC. Winning cures all and if we end up with 6 or 7 wins despite all the injuries and a HC change, I think that will make New Orleans an attractive destination. I think securing the right head coach is more important than throwing more chips into the draft lottery.

 

[Saintfan4life]

I want to see wins. Want to see what exactly do we have on this team. I’m in the minority that we have talent on this team, despite injuries.

I want to win to see us win losing upsets me and the drive home is more pleasant after a win. I also believe that we have talent but we need better coaching. The most important thing that we need is a real good to great coach who can get the most out of the players.

 

[mrwrench77]

I look at like this...if we win 5 or 6 of the last 7 games then we probably aren't that far off so a mid first round draft pick is ok, and then the post first round, maybe second round picks use to work on depth. That seems to be, Imo, the best route moving forward.

 

[St. Widge]

Looking both at us and the league as a whole, I’ve grown to believe that ‘better at drafting’ just means ‘luckier at drafting’
But yes I hope we return to being lucky at drafting

Obviously there is some skill involved in drafting. First in evaluation to some extent and second in being able to predict where guys will be drafted so that you increase the value of your picks. I think first and second round picks are more about skill than luck, but after that luck pretty much so takes over.

And the best way to account for luck is to better your odds by having as many many picks as possible. Bill Belichick had a notoriously bad hit rate in the draft but he had so many picks that it put the odds in his favor so he ended up having a bunch of good players from the draft despite hitting on picks at a low rate.

So, I think in many ways the way to get good at drafting is to put a premium on getting more picks and not trading away picks to move up. But you do also need to be good at scouting for the early rounds and to cut the luck factor down some.

 

[Big_L]

I think winning and losing are a mindset. I'd rather win as many games as possible to create a winning foundation to build upon. I get we lost some games, but winning a few, even if Rizzi isn't retained, will work wonders, especially with the injuries. I'm sure there are some good prospects in the draft, but QB is real weak this upcoming draft. We can win a few more games and still get some good picks. However, what good are picks if we don't develop those picks or put them in a position to succeed (Baun)? I think some coaching/staff changes would work wonders. This team isn't as talent depleated as the record my suggest. Get BRIAN FLORES in here!!!!!

 

[St. Widge]

I'm just taking the season as it goes. I'll never root for a loss but at the same point I won't be all that upset at losses since the get you a higher draft pick. At the same point I don't think there is a huge amount of value in the top 5 or maybe even the top 10 of this draft so I'm fine is we pick in the lower part of the top 10 or even in the 10 to 15 range. I guess you could theoretically trade down for more picks if you have a top 5 pick, but I'm not sure we would do that anyway.

So, I'm really at peace with wins or losses. I'm really more interested to see what Rizzi, Woods, and Kubiak can do without DA and in seeing some of the young guys get snaps and develop. At the same point I do think it would be better if we can at least be around .500 in the last 7 games because I think a 5 to 7 game losing streak would be bad for the locker room, make it harder to get a good head coach, and could become a habit of losing.

 

[BreesusSaves]

I'm just taking the season as it goes. I'll never root for a loss but at the same point I won't be all that upset at losses since the get you a higher draft pick. At the same point I don't think there is a huge amount of value in the top 5 or maybe even the top 10 of this draft so I'm fine is we pick in the lower part of the top 10 or even in the 10 to 15 range. I guess you could theoretically trade down for more picks if you have a top 5 pick, but I'm not sure we would do that anyway.

So, I'm really at peace with wins or losses. I'm really more interested to see what Rizzi, Woods, and Kubiak can do without DA and in seeing some of the young guys get snaps and develop.

I think a lot of us are waiting to see if the Saints can get a fully healthy OL and see if that brings Kubiak's offense closer to how they started the year. Would answer a lot of questions about him as an OC.

 

[Elvis]

This team has nearly no chance of making the playoffs and an even lower chance of winning a playoff game in 2024. So a big part of me wants them to lose out while trying to win out, if that makes any sense. What I don't want to see is them flat out give up on the season because that is loser mentality. It's fine for fans to have that, but cancerous for players to have it. You certainly don't want that mentality carrying over into future seasons.

So if they lose a bunch of one score games and get a top 5 pick, I'm on board with that to get some higher quality players or even just one.

 

[St.Dan]

Repeating my prediction of a 6-11 finish, given the overall weakness of the remaining schedule compared to the overall strength of the first half of it. I'm thinking that puts the first round selection somewhere between 5 and 10. Works for me.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Obviously there is some skill involved in drafting. First in evaluation to some extent and second in being able to predict where guys will be drafted so that you increase the value of your picks. I think first and second round picks are more about skill than luck, but after that luck pretty much so takes over.

And the best way to account for luck is to better your odds by having as many many picks as possible. Bill Belichick had a notoriously bad hit rate in the draft but he had so many picks that it put the odds in his favor so he ended up having a bunch of good players from the draft despite hitting on picks at a low rate.

So, I think in many ways the way to get good at drafting is to put a premium on getting more picks and not trading away picks to move up. But you do also need to be good at scouting for the early rounds and to cut the luck factor down some.

isn't the hit rate for drafts about 50% overall?

but yes, more picks = more chances to get lucky
i also wonder if trading out of the 1st and accumulating picks would help with our cap if we didn't have to pay a top 10 1st rd salary (but i don't know how rookie salaries apply to the cap)

 

[RJS]

You know you can root for the Saints to win and root for all of the other 2 and 3 win teams to win as well. Best of both worlds.

 

[SaintRob]

I want to go on a run! The Falcons might have been the toughest game left on the schedule. We're getting healthy (except at WR) and we can beat anyone that's left on the schedule. I don't have any delusion or expectation that we will, but if I got what I want, we'd end on an 8 game winning streak and snag the final wild card spot. There's no 100% sure-fire guarantee in the draft. Win each week, if possible.

 

[texasjefe]

We don't play and we don't coach, so we have no control of this. If DA were still coaching, I'd choose the high draft pick. If Rizzi wins at a nice clip the rest of the way, I will easily be able to live with that. Rizzi in his first game beat a good team, which DA never did. (At Tampa Tom 2021 does not count to me). If Rizz shows he can motivate the undermanned roster and win, then that's a positive outcome.

It could also keep Kubiak, who I still think is a valuable OC to have, if they can get healthier and re-stocked on the offensive line.

 

[DerrickB]

I prefer that this team try to win with Rizzi.

 

[St. Widge]

isn't the hit rate for drafts about 50% overall?

but yes, more picks = more chances to get lucky
i also wonder if trading out of the 1st and accumulating picks would help with our cap if we didn't have to pay a top 10 1st rd salary (but i don't know how rookie salaries apply to the cap)

I think I've seen that 50% is the hit rate in the first round, around 33% in the 2nd round, 15% in the third round, 8% in the fourth. It gets progressively much lower after that down to like 1% in the 7th. That's part of why I think there is more skill involved in the 1st and 2nd round because the hit percentage is higher. But that could just be that teams have more information about those guys than later round picks.

Trading down would likely help the cap some, but I'm not sure how much and there will likely be a point in the draft's first round where you no longer have guys on the board that are worth a 1st round pick. That is to the extent teams are right about that sort of thing since, of course, some guys drafted after the first or who didn't have 1st round grades end up being better players than guys drafted high in the 1st.

I think that is more or less the strategy Belichick used. He often traded way down even when they had a reasonably high pick and even when they had lower picks. He often traded out of the 1st IIRC. That helped his cap situation but I think mostly because he has so many picks that he had quality talent to replace guys instead of having to give them a big second contract. That's something the Saints seldom have or do. Although they did seem to do it with Lattimore at least near the end of his 2nd contract.