If the refs aren’t overwhelmingly biased against the Saints, please explain this: (2 Viewers)

[State Of Affairs]

Just a random fan here...
but aren't half the teams going to trend above average for penalties and half below?

Is there a graph showing the top 5 most penalized?
If the Saints are always one of the top 5 consistently over that many years, it would be more compelling evidence.

But also, it could just be a coaching mindset as well to play more aggressively or to coach into the grey area more than another coach.
To really determine that you would need to analyze a lot of plays of when holding should have been called and wasn't to see if some teams are getting called more and also getting away with more non-holding calls.

Interesting graph, but I think more data needs to be shown.

Saints opponents only have 63 penalties for 512 yards. Both numbers are the lowest in the league.

The team with the most opposing penalties is Philadelphia with 107 penalties for 980 yards.

Doesn’t include declined/offsetting penalties. Difference of 44 penalties and 468 yards.

 

[NeverGiveUP2]

Pssst, Tracy - stay to the outside and you score!!!

I have always said that also. Good Lord the Dome would have collapsed

 

[JustaSharkie]

It is not a conspiracy if it's proven to be true.

 

[bclemms]

If anyone believes the officiating is honest after seeing what refs did with the pass interference penalties being reviewable are in denial. It was the most incredible display of cult officiating I've seen at any level of professional sports. They didn't try to hide it, they told coaches everywhere that if you challenge it you will lose a timeout and the challenge will equate to nothing more than a symbolic gesture by refusing to overturn calls.

The statistics from top to bottom are all skewed heavily against the Saints in every aspect. When you break it down even farther to "judgement calls" vs "non-judgement calls" it gets even worse. It's obvious, intentional and to the point we should file a class action suit against the league with all the data.

So get ready for another heartbreak in the playoffs whether it be from something obvious or not. Rarely do officials allow us to pull away in games or get back into them. If they want us to get routed they simply start throwing pass interference and defensive holding penalties on us while allowing other teams to be as physical as they like against our receivers and it is game over. You know how we have those games where our receivers just can't seem to get open or we have those games where our defensive line just doesn't show up? Watch closely and many times it becomes really apparent. The game against Philly was really obvious with the lack of offensive holding calls. Cam Jordan got ejected for taking matters into his own hand after getting dominated by a practice squad OT all game. Diamond in the rough? No, he was just allowed to murder Jordan every single snap.

No, it doesn't have to be some giant conspiracy inolving hundreds of people either. All it takes is for Riveron to leave little bread crumbs for officiating crews to follow. We know the league office talks to officiating crews to "watch" for certain things with certain teams before each game. At most the Saints pull the same ref crews 2-3 times per season so it's not like it gets repetitive. Riveron simply tells the crews to watch the Saints for the very physical play of the Saints secondary and offensive lines. Mix a little bit of that with inspiring some animosity among officials for Payton wanting to replace them with constant reviews and computer chips and allow that to fester. Instruct them not to overturn pass interference reviews unless it they make abosolutely terrible calls and plant the seed that if it gets overturned it means you did your job horribly. Promote the officiating crews that buy in. It's all really easy to do without ever leaving any evidence of intent. It doesn't take a whole lot because humans are so easily manipulated with the power of promotion. One more 3rd down penalty, one more offensive holding penalty, one more big pass interference penalty per game for the opponent while the Saints get one less of each and suddenly it is a whole lot for a team to overcome in a league with so much parity.

All this begins to snowball. Saints' secondary becomes hesitant and playing afraid of the flag. Saints offensive linemen get less physical. Meanwhile opposing offensive linemen keep holding more and more because they aren't being penalized, the secondary is getting more and more physical with each route and human nature takes over for the players as they naturally push it farther each play. So on top of the penalties being skewed against the Saints now one or two less sacks happen each game, one or two less receivers are getting open each series on top of the penalties.

After this happens for a while and evidence starts to pile up that can be interpreted two ways. Either the Saints are disproportionaty penalized OR the Saints are an undisciplined team that needs close monitoring each game by officiating crews. Riveron can now feed off of this and it is much easier for officials to think the Saints are undisciplined because in order for it to be the Saints are being unfairly judged by the refs it would mean the refs would have to admit to themselves they have been doing a poor job, something very difficult for humans to admit.

Want to see it work the opposite way? Watch the Chiefs on offense when they run crossing routes. They are allowed to send WR's blocking 10 yards downfield before the ball is thrown in bunch formations. Watch the pick plays where Kelse is allowed to be a human bowling ball knocking defenders off receivers. Watch the WR screen plays to hill in which the offensive linemen release immediately and are 5 yards downfield before the ball is thrown. Watch the amount of offensive linemen blocking downfield on RB screens, it never gets called against them and it's not borderline. They are playing offense with a different set of rules than everyone else. It's not by chance they are the team on the other end of the spectrum with penalty differential.

Don't think it can get worse? You are wrong. If 2020 has taught me anything, it is just how far misinformation campaigns, the power of suggestion, confirmational bias and propaganda can stretch people, refs included. Most people really struggle with statistics and even more simply don't care until they are personally being adversly impacted. So if you are expecting non-Saints fans to get upset about this, hope you aren't holding your breath.

The officiating campaign against allowing pass interference penalties to be reviewed was so outlandish that conspiracy went out the window and the statistics since that point is so dramatic that the theory is being proven by piles of data. My only question is when does it stop?


Also, does anyone have stats that show scoring plays negated by penalty? I know we've had a bunch of big plays and scoring plays called back this year. I'd love it if someone put all this data in one place. A few years ago I would have been all in and did it myself but I used to care a whole lot more before the no-call. Now it's more just entertainment value knowing the NFL is influencing the outcome of games.

 

[UFCSaint]

I believe, when Payton walks away 100% from the game, including post coaching jobs (analyst, TV commentator...etc.), he may well write a book of all that he has experienced. Good and bad, both

The title of his book should be;
“The OFFICIAL review, of the NFL”

I showed several numbers and graphs to a friend of mine. He agreed that it's obvious that we aren't officiated fairly. But then he said that Payton may want to lay off griping about the officials for a while. I said, that's just it.. he rarely complains about officiating although he has plenty of reason to. He probably complains less about officiating than Mora, Haslett, and Ditka did.

 

[blackadder]

If anyone believes the officiating is honest after seeing what refs did with the pass interference penalties being reviewable are in denial. It was the most incredible display of cult officiating I've seen at any level of professional sports. They didn't try to hide it, they told coaches everywhere that if you challenge it you will lose a timeout and the challenge will equate to nothing more than a symbolic gesture by refusing to overturn calls.

The statistics from top to bottom are all skewed heavily against the Saints in every aspect. When you break it down even farther to "judgement calls" vs "non-judgement calls" it gets even worse. It's obvious, intentional and to the point we should file a class action suit against the league with all the data.

So get ready for another heartbreak in the playoffs whether it be from something obvious or not. Rarely do officials allow us to pull away in games or get back into them. If they want us to get routed they simply start throwing pass interference and defensive holding penalties on us while allowing other teams to be as physical as they like against our receivers and it is game over. You know how we have those games where our receivers just can't seem to get open or we have those games where our defensive line just doesn't show up? Watch closely and many times it becomes really apparent. The game against Philly was really obvious with the lack of offensive holding calls. Cam Jordan got ejected for taking matters into his own hand after getting dominated by a practice squad OT all game. Diamond in the rough? No, he was just allowed to murder Jordan every single snap.

No, it doesn't have to be some giant conspiracy inolving hundreds of people either. All it takes is for Riveron to leave little bread crumbs for officiating crews to follow. We know the league office talks to officiating crews to "watch" for certain things with certain teams before each game. At most the Saints pull the same ref crews 2-3 times per season so it's not like it gets repetitive. Riveron simply tells the crews to watch the Saints for the very physical play of the Saints secondary and offensive lines. Mix a little bit of that with inspiring some animosity among officials for Payton wanting to replace them with constant reviews and computer chips and allow that to fester. Instruct them not to overturn pass interference reviews unless it they make abosolutely terrible calls and plant the seed that if it gets overturned it means you did your job horribly. Promote the officiating crews that buy in. It's all really easy to do without ever leaving any evidence of intent. It doesn't take a whole lot because humans are so easily manipulated with the power of promotion. One more 3rd down penalty, one more offensive holding penalty, one more big pass interference penalty per game for the opponent while the Saints get one less of each and suddenly it is a whole lot for a team to overcome in a league with so much parity.

All this begins to snowball. Saints' secondary becomes hesitant and playing afraid of the flag. Saints offensive linemen get less physical. Meanwhile opposing offensive linemen keep holding more and more because they aren't being penalized, the secondary is getting more and more physical with each route and human nature takes over for the players as they naturally push it farther each play. So on top of the penalties being skewed against the Saints now one or two less sacks happen each game, one or two less receivers are getting open each series on top of the penalties.

After this happens for a while and evidence starts to pile up that can be interpreted two ways. Either the Saints are disproportionaty penalized OR the Saints are an undisciplined team that needs close monitoring each game by officiating crews. Riveron can now feed off of this and it is much easier for officials to think the Saints are undisciplined because in order for it to be the Saints are being unfairly judged by the refs it would mean the refs would have to admit to themselves they have been doing a poor job, something very difficult for humans to admit.

Want to see it work the opposite way? Watch the Chiefs on offense when they run crossing routes. They are allowed to send WR's blocking 10 yards downfield before the ball is thrown in bunch formations. Watch the pick plays where Kelse is allowed to be a human bowling ball knocking defenders off receivers. Watch the WR screen plays to hill in which the offensive linemen release immediately and are 5 yards downfield before the ball is thrown. Watch the amount of offensive linemen blocking downfield on RB screens, it never gets called against them and it's not borderline. They are playing offense with a different set of rules than everyone else. It's not by chance they are the team on the other end of the spectrum with penalty differential.

Don't think it can get worse? You are wrong. If 2020 has taught me anything, it is just how far misinformation campaigns, the power of suggestion, confirmational bias and propaganda can stretch people, refs included. Most people really struggle with statistics and even more simply don't care until they are personally being adversly impacted. So if you are expecting non-Saints fans to get upset about this, hope you aren't holding your breath.

The officiating campaign against allowing pass interference penalties to be reviewed was so outlandish that conspiracy went out the window and the statistics since that point is so dramatic that the theory is being proven by piles of data. My only question is when does it stop?


Also, does anyone have stats that show scoring plays negated by penalty? I know we've had a bunch of big plays and scoring plays called back this year. I'd love it if someone put all this data in one place. A few years ago I would have been all in and did it myself but I used to care a whole lot more before the no-call. Now it's more just entertainment value knowing the NFL is influencing the outcome of games.

Bravo.

"...just how far misinformation campaigns, the power of suggestion, confirmational bias and propaganda can stretch people, refs included. Most people really struggle with statistics and even more simply don't care until they are personally being adversly impacted. So if you are expecting non-Saints fans to get upset about this, hope you aren't holding your breath."

The point above I will add is now pervasive in our society.

You can go back to how bounty gate was managed to manipulate public opinion against the Saints. It was a well planned media "propaganda"/misinformation campaign. Leaks were planned and scripted on a cadence, usually with negative information on the Saints released with timing to maximize exposure. Then they got into outright lies with the story about the Saints bugging opposing locker rooms. No evidence necessary.

Sports, politics, whatever. Everyone is playing a gaslighting game. The NFL essentially is a media/entertainment conglomerate and Goodell out of New York definitely runs the thing ruthlessly with economic intimidation tactics behind the scenes and definitely deploys the finest in propaganda artists to massage narratives as required.

I also see KC running really a lot of pick plays. They are the offensive version of what the Seattle Legion of Boom was on defense, allowed to operate under a different set of rules, except maybe when they are up against Tom Brady, then the refs will be more conflicted.

I fear you are right about the playoffs.

If it is not something like the no call it will be a series of lopsided calls (or no calls) to keep it close or keep the other team in it.

 

[blackadder]

I showed several numbers and graphs to a friend of mine. He agreed that it's obvious that we aren't officiated fairly. But then he said that Payton may want to lay off griping about the officials for a while. I said, that's just it.. he rarely complains about officiating although he has plenty of reason to. He probably complains less about officiating than Mora, Haslett, and Ditka did.

Publicly, but do we know if he is picking up the phone to the league?

I would be torn as the coach between going to Riveron and Goodell and saying "look, I know what you are doing. Look at this data. It can't be explained by anything but bias but I can't prove it. But I KNOW what this is. So, please stand down."

But even then I think Goodell would interpret as a threat and then himself double down.

I don't know how to let them know we know without triggering an even worse screwing. And I'm not sure they even care that we know. Maybe it's the intent that Payton feel helpless before the onslaught...

 

[gboudx]

***bclemms spoke a lot of truth***

You just very succinctly explained why I no longer get excited, either before or during Saints games. The NFL has ruined it for me.

 

[The Unrest Cure]

You just very succinctly explained why I no longer get excited, either before or during Saints games. The NFL has ruined it for me.

There is no doubt as to why I feel the same way: it is difficult to get excited for a post-season when you realize how fine the margin is between success and failure ... and NFL officiating so often and so critically is that difference.

Frankly, the NFL is not a just league. It may have never been, to be honest, but now it is baldly apparent to me. And that takes a big chomp out of my satisfaction with "competition".

 

[Domeination]

I've seen the officiating bias against us and know it has affected the outcome of some games, namely the 2018 NFC Championship, but I refuse to allow that to take away from my enthusiasm for this year's squad and what the team can do in the postseason. Even in that Rams game, there were some key plays that helped lead to the outcome before the no-call, like Dan Arnold's TD drop and the fake punt against us (which was really a turning point in the game). Last year, Minnesota beat us fair and square in the postseason. They had a better game plan than we did and exploited our biggest weakness on the interior of our O line, and Payton didn't adjust soon enough. If our team is dialed in and remains healthy, we have the potential to go all the way this year, even against Green Bay in Lambeau.

 

[blackadder]

Actually its not, many members of SR think the rest of us are conspiracy theorists or cry babies making excuses.

You're not paranoid if they really are out to get you...

There is a debate as to how "conspiracy theory" became the "go to" way of trying to discredit arguments that more is going on than meets the eye:

There's a conspiracy theory that the CIA invented the term 'conspiracy theory' – here's why

John F Kennedy's assassination was a turning point in how conspiracy theorists became viewed.

sports.yahoo.com

Whether you want to say that the CIA "invented" the term or it's use to discredit critical thinking beyond media-approved simplified "narratives", to me the interesting thing is the term took off with the Kennedy assassination and dissatisfaction with the official explanations put forth. At that time the US had a permanent secret intelligence agency with a large secret budget (to be spent on secret conspiracies) for only about 15 years. You can read all the accounts of all the shenanigans the CIA has been up to much of which emerged in the 1970s, and continue.

As people are aware there is a lot that goes on behind the scenes and that sometimes conspiracies are real, of course you try to fill in the blanks with a "qui bouno" line of thinking. You can casually Google historical conspiracies that were real and documented. Has human nature changed so much that we would think powerful people would no longer conspire to rig something?

Anyway, I don't want to really hijack with politics but to illustrate the point...the CIA and the intelligence agencies of almost every other major country are spending probably around a trillion dollars a year to secretly lie, cheat and steal to influence politics, events and public perception of events. CIA secret budget is estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars then throw in China, Mossad, Russia, European nations etc and add it all up. At any given time all around you are events that are being manipulated and channeled by competing forces. So of course conspiracies are real and media is used to set a narrative to obscure any connection of the dots as to who or what forces and agendas are behind the scenes trying to shove things one way or another.

To bring this back to the football point, of course NFL uses the same media scripts to set narratives around events in the league to keep the story away from, say, reforming officiating, which the technology and approaches are available to do. There is no reason to not have officiating be as effective as college football. Sometimes NCAA refs get it wrong but overall officiating is far superior and mostly gets it right and rarely to I watch a college game and get the feeling the refs are taking over or trying to keep it close.

So when you think of a powerful profit making media corporation like the NFL, and you want to assume they have integrity, you wonder why they don't invest some of all the money swimming in into next generation officiating to build confidence in the product. When you see how they resist it and how they treated PI review, then you ask the questions around "why?". And it at this point I am gladly called a conspiracy theorist because if you don't want to make the product as best as it can be and eliminate bias or flat out human error on the judgment calls I have to assume there is a reason you won't even consider it, and one of the reasons as we have discussed is that officiating is your best tool to influence the game outcomes and/or punish certain teams or individuals.

The way you set up the mechanisms to influence and channel the way refs call the games are outlined very well in bclemms post.

So call me a conspiracy theorist, thank you.

 

[ItFan]

Also, something that doesn’t show in the stats, are the judgements like the following.
Starting from the second Atl game, they went heavy on us. From memory:

1) Atl complete that was clearly not a complete. Payton challanged, the ruling stood.

2) The Eagles onside kick that we recovered.

3) Taysom Hill TD over the pylon, clearly a TD. Reviewed, not a TD. I guess it was against KC?

4) Identical DPIs in the endzone. The first, against the Vikings, was not called. The second, against us, was called. This shows in the stats but I still add it because it’s a blatant example of unfair judgement.

5) Scoring plays. There was at least a TD pass against us where Cam was held. Maybe two, I’m not sure (too much things to track down). Maybe one was the Hurts TD pass.
Scoring plays have direct consequences, so they’re more penalizing than a missing flag in a random spot of the field.

6) The Thielen TD that was not a TD.

 

[Saviorbrees]

What the real evidence is that I seen somewhere but can’t remember where is that someone showed the avg penalties per game a team has but when they face the saints that teams penalties go down significantly from thier avg. so teams just happen to play thier perfect games against us...I think not.

 

[SaintsFanatic]

What the real evidence is that I seen somewhere but can’t remember where is that someone showed the avg penalties per game a team has but when they face the saints that teams penalties go down significantly from thier avg. so teams just happen to play thier perfect games against us...I think not.

 

[blackadder]

It ends with the bias conclusion, which is where we have been, and blemms walked you through of how you can "cultivate" bias if you choose to.

Going the data route, this all reminds me again of bounty gate again when the league and media narrative was the Saints were a dirty organization paying players to intentionally injure opponents. Except that they weren't very good.

The data showed that the Saints were near the bottom of the league in causing injuries to opponents, let alone knocking them out of games. If you were paying big incentives to play recklessly, that is not an outcome you would expect.