Article Inside the trenches: How Sheldon Rankins is adding value to the Saints defensive line [Film Study] (1 Viewer)

[bobad]

I'll give you OPR, and points allowed, and a decent number of takeaways. But we were not in the top five in any single category, and below average in a bunch of them. Given all the above, and I don't think I am cherry-picking, I don't see how on earth anyone calls this a "very good defense" last year. They were average, and pretty beat up and fading at the end. I have no idea how this adds up to "very good."

We lost our last 4 road games, you need to play lights out after November.

 

[LAhotsauce]

I don't consider "points allowed" a defensive stat. Not unless you adjust and remove for points and field position that was a direct result of the offense and special teams.

Yards allowed and specifically yards per play has always been better barometer.

 

[Stalwart385]

Rankins gets discredited because he doesn't make splash plays. A lot of those splash plays come at a risk and I don't know if Rankins mindset is for him to take those risks. I think of Fairley's big year. I saw many plays where he would jump to penetrate and put himself way out of position. Even Rankin's sack last game gets discredited since he came off a block when Tyrod scrambled. Rankins pushing his guy up in the QB's face (along with DE's pressuring edges) caused Tyrod to make that move in the first place. He had no lane because Rankins was able to guard both sides of the block since he bull rushed.

I don't know if it's a step he needs to take to get those shots straight at the QB but I tend to think he just doesn't sell out as much to get those plays. Especially in a game against a scramble QB. I could be horribly wrong but regardless I think he does his job as well as you could hope short of having a superstar there.

 

[oneofamillion]

Great work.

Nit edit - you've got a typo: should be "fare" rather than "fair" in this sentence: "here is how those numbers fair against his peers"

Also, if you want to be a real grammar nazi, you'd make "peers" possessive (peers'), because you're referring to his peers' numbers -- how Rankins' numbers fare against his peers' numbers -- rather than how his numbers compares to his peers (a numbers to people comparison).

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Running down a bunch of defensive rankings in various categories from 2017:

Opponent passer rating (very very important IMO): 7th
Opponent yards per carry: 28th
Opponent yards per play: 23rd
Opponent yards per game: 17th
Takeaways: T9-11th
Points allowed per game: 10th
Average league rank of opposing offenses: 16.3 (note: this is just about average, but some of the best ones we played, Atl (8th, 2x) and TB (9th, 2x) are teams we're real familiar with, while on the other hand we fattened our numbers against real bottom feeders like NYJ, Chi, and GB w/o Rodgers)

To me, these are the numbers that count -- against slightly below average opposition, we did a nice job against the pass, primarily because of 20 INTs, which is not to be ignored, but otherwise we were average to below average.

Now, to that "points against" stat -- yes, it's important, but you need context.

First, we had among the fewest drives to defend against, as we were only 26th in number of drives against. Now, our offense was about the same in number of drives, but was fourth in average drive time (think time of possession), and you combine this with our opponents starting with the 30th worst average field position out of 32 teams. In other words, because we protected the ball so well, and have a great punter, and so many kickoffs out of the end zone, our opponents' average offenses had far fewer chances, and had to go further, to score, than most other defenses in the league had to face. It stands to reason you're going to give up fewer points than defenses that are on the field more times per game, and with shorter fields to defend.

The most important number might be points allowed, but to really judge your defense, you have to look at it in context. For that matter, the reductio ad absurdam is you just look at your won-lost record and don't look at any stats at all.

Also, we didn't finish too strong -- 455 yards and 31 points (18 in Q4!) in a season-ending loss to the Bucs in a game we really wanted to win, 413 yards and 26 points (14 in Q4!) to the Panthers in round one, and then 403 yards and 29 points (12 in Q4!) to the Vikings, in a game we fell behind 17-0 (and really should have been blown out in, but Zimmer choked and shut down his offense).

I'll give you OPR, and points allowed, and a decent number of takeaways. But we were not in the top five in any single category, and below average in a bunch of them. Given all the above, and I don't think I am cherry-picking, I don't see how on earth anyone calls this a "very good defense" last year. They were average, and pretty beat up and fading at the end. I have no idea how this adds up to "very good."

More context:
-4th in forced fumbles (19)
-T7th in sacks (42)
-Held opponents to a 66.3 and 69.9 QB Rating in the 3rd and 4th QTRs
-1st in pass deflections
-13th in rushing TDs allowed (11)
-12th in passing TDs allowed (22)
-7th in Passer Rating allowed (79.0)

Some of their problem areas (penalties - 19th, YPC 28th) are issues the team focused on fixing. So far this year they are 4th in YPC allowed (3.4) and 4th in fewest penalties (11).
There were some inconsistency issues with last year's young team as well (as noted by FBO's variance mark: 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Football Outsiders), but they were an above average team in the NFL. I think you kind of point out several of the reasons why those yardage numbers go up. The Saints built leads and went into prevent defense mode. They focused more on eating clock than they did preventing yardage. Now, the effectiveness of this strategy can be debated, but as a team defense they were very good, especially in comparison to recent New Orleans teams.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Rankins gets discredited because he doesn't make splash plays. A lot of those splash plays come at a risk and I don't know if Rankins mindset is for him to take those risks. I think of Fairley's big year. I saw many plays where he would jump to penetrate and put himself way out of position. Even Rankin's sack last game gets discredited since he came off a block when Tyrod scrambled. Rankins pushing his guy up in the QB's face (along with DE's pressuring edges) caused Tyrod to make that move in the first place. He had no lane because Rankins was able to guard both sides of the block since he bull rushed.

I don't know if it's a step he needs to take to get those shots straight at the QB but I tend to think he just doesn't sell out as much to get those plays. Especially in a game against a scramble QB. I could be horribly wrong but regardless I think he does his job as well as you could hope short of having a superstar there.

I tend to agree, but I love the discussion this has brought!

Great work.

Nit edit - you've got a typo: should be "fare" rather than "fair" in this sentence: "here is how those numbers fair against his peers"

Also, if you want to be a real grammar nazi, you'd make "peers" possessive (peers'), because you're referring to his peers' numbers -- how Rankins' numbers fare against his peers' numbers -- rather than how his numbers compares to his peers (a numbers to people comparison).

I'll pass that along to the editor!

 

[SaintJ]

More context:
-4th in forced fumbles (19)
-T7th in sacks (42)
-Held opponents to a 66.3 and 69.9 QB Rating in the 3rd and 4th QTRs
-1st in pass deflections
-13th in rushing TDs allowed (11)
-12th in passing TDs allowed (22)
-7th in Passer Rating allowed (79.0)

Some of their problem areas (penalties - 19th, YPC 28th) are issues the team focused on fixing. So far this year they are 4th in YPC allowed (3.4) and 4th in fewest penalties (11).
There were some inconsistency issues with last year's young team as well (as noted by FBO's variance mark: 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Football Outsiders), but they were an above average team in the NFL. I think you kind of point out several of the reasons why those yardage numbers go up. The Saints built leads and went into prevent defense mode. They focused more on eating clock than they did preventing yardage. Now, the effectiveness of this strategy can be debated, but as a team defense they were very good, especially in comparison to recent New Orleans teams.

First in pass deflections? Leaning on that doesn't help you. Stick with the meaningful stats.

10th in points, 13th in rushing TDs allowed, 12th in passing TDs allowed....those are all your best numbers, and you're about 1/3 from the top of the whole league in them. That's "good," not "very good". And you're cherry picking. The 2017 defense was a big improvement over the 2012-2016 toxic wasteland that cost Brees five years of his career, but that's faint praise. And they had a nice stretch in mid-season where they were "very good." But you've got some serious confirmation bias going on.

Peace out.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

First in pass deflections? Leaning on that doesn't help you. Stick with the meaningful stats.

10th in points, 13th in rushing TDs allowed, 12th in passing TDs allowed....those are all your best numbers, and you're about 1/3 from the top of the whole league in them. That's "good," not "very good". And you're cherry picking. The 2017 defense was a big improvement over the 2012-2016 toxic wasteland that cost Brees five years of his career, but that's faint praise. And they had a nice stretch in mid-season where they were "very good." But you've got some serious confirmation bias going on.

Peace out.

I don't think I'm leaning on any stat, I'm providing content. Ask a coach/scout/FO if PDs are meaningless. You also left out other metrics that I provided, to try and make your point(s) seem superior. Have a great day!

 

[mid-city fan]

Might be a nice article & video. Can't tell unless you subscribe.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Might be a nice article & video. Can't tell unless you subscribe.

Correct. Larry Holder and myself have both joined The Athletic and it is a subscription based news source.