Is it possible Auburn could be a Top 5 team and not win the SEC West (1 Viewer)

Saintman2884

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Well Auburn is ranked #6 right now and looks like they would be in the National Title hunt becuase of their record. Add in to the fact that Arkansas is the top team to win the SEC West in the currenbt standings and Auburn is out or would need help to win the SEC Championship or even get their. My theory is that Auburn may not win the SEC West or even the SEC Title game but they will still be in the Top 5 Rankings anyway and maybe a BCS Bowl in January.

Michigan and Ohio State will be playing one another later this month in Ann arbor and Louisville and WEst Vriginia will play one another Thursday night so if Auburn wins out and runs the table, could they go to the National title game even without even winning their division?

Michigan or Ohio State will lose, USC has already lost, someone will lose in WVU/Louisville, and Auburn is ranked ahead of them or slightly below them, will the tigers move up in the rankings just by default or rising up when the teams above them lose?

Anything could happen in the crazy world of NCAA Football.
 

JimEverett

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Yeah - it certainly is possible that Auburn could play for the national title.

I think Auburn and Tennessee are similarly situated, in that we are on the outside looking in when it comes to the SEC Championship, but that could, in fact, help us.
Here is a scenario for Tennessee:
UT wins out - which means they beat Arkansas
Florida wins out
Arkansas wins all remaining games but the Tennessee game.
Arkansas beats Florida in the SEC Championship

Auburn, obviously, has to win out. But then all they want is that neither Florida nor Arkansas win out and win the SEC Title. They want one of those two temas to lose a regular season game and then that team win the SEC (the Tennessee scenario above would do it for them as well).

Auburn is ranked higher right now, so that helps them a lot. Tennessee, though, has the advantage of still playing LSU and Arkansas (assuming they win out) so they can get mucho points if they win those games. Plus, Cal might be the PAc-10 champs and Tennessee beat them.

Other stuff has to happen as well - assuming the Ohio State-Michigan winner is in the title game then there is only one spot open. The Big East probably will have an undefeated Louisville or West Virginina (assuming Rutgers doesn;t spoil everything there). Texas is still there with one loss. Notre Dame will enter the picture again if they win out and beat USC, the computers seem to love Cal.
 

Ric Romero

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Ok how can Tennessee absouletly destroy Cal and Cal is ranked ahead of them in the BCS?

Oh and there is no way that Aurburn gets into the title game. BCS doesn't like them. If you might have forgotten they went undefeated in the SEC and get left out of the BCS title game a couple of years ago.

For the love of God implement a playoff system.
 

OhioSaint

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Sorry but the Ohio State and Michigan game is in Columbus not Ann Arbor. I would'nt hold my breath hoping Auburn gets in the NTG. I don't see it happening.No disrespect meant.Just to many ifs.
 

MLU

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The same way that USC can finish #1, but not win the Nat'l Championship: No playoffs.
 

JimEverett

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Ok how can Tennessee absouletly destroy Cal and Cal is ranked ahead of them in the BCS?

Oh and there is no way that Aurburn gets into the title game. BCS doesn't like them. If you might have forgotten they went undefeated in the SEC and get left out of the BCS title game a couple of years ago.

For the love of God implement a playoff system.
The computers have Cal ranked something crazy - like 3rd or 4th.

Auburn can make it to the title game. Right now they are the second best rankes 1-loss team. The biggest problem Auburn has is that they really don;t play anyone else that is going to be a quality win that might enable them to jump over people (unless they make it to the SEC Championship).
I am not trying to talk smack when I say that I think Tennessee has a better shot simply because they play LSU and travel to Arkansas. Of course the downside is that Tennessee could easily lose one or both of those games.

But I don;t think the BCS or anyone has it out for Auburn. In 2004 Auburn was barely in the top 25 to start the season, while USC and Oklahoma were at the top. All three went undefeated, but they just sort of stayed the same from the preseason rankings.
The team with the most to complain about the BCS is USC - for letting Oklahoma go the title game in 2003 despite losing their conference championship game.
 

Saint Will

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To answer someone's question about whether AU will play for the NC without playing for the SECCG and winning it...the answer is without question...NO

There is a 0% chance that AU goes anywhere near the NC game without winning the SEC.

It won't happen.

There is zero shot of it happening.
 

DCSaints_Fan

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Its not impossible, and it would be funny as hell if it happened and deliver yet another blow to the credibility of the BCS system with no playoff system. As much as they've tried to fix things, teams are still penalized more for a late losses than for early ones.

How about this scenario:

Auburn wins out
Rutgers beats Louisville
WVU beats Rutgers
Arkansas loses to someone (Tennesee/LSU most likely), they will have a single conference loss but hold the tiebreaker over Auburn
Arkansas wins the SECCG
Cal loses to someone besides USC (UCLA could be a tough game)
Cal beats USC
USC beats Notre Dame
The Michigan/OSU game is a convincing win for one team
Texas loses to someone (A&M might be a possibility)

That leaves the possibility only one undefeated team in the country(OSU and Michigan), besides Boise State, and theres no way they get in the title game. You would also have a bunch of two loss teams, and weak one loss teams who didn't win their conference. Basically you would have to have what happened to the ACC last year duplicated for all the other conferences. A mediocre team winning the conference(Florida State won the ACC last year despite having 3 losses)

The #1 and #2 teams have to play each other in the title game by law. If Auburn wins out and wins convincgly, they will not drop in the polls, but you do have the possibility of other teams dropping. But the pollsters would not put Auburn at #2 unless they had no other choice, and there are just too many things that have to go right for them for it to happen.

But I'd say there is about a 90% chance the NC game is going to be Louisville vs. OSU/Michigan(whoever wins when they play head to head)

You can't not give Louisville the nod assuming they win out.
 
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Saint Will

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It is impossible. There is not a chance in hell they would ever put AU in it while some other team wins the SEC with so many other 1-loss teams out there like ND, USC, ext...
 

JimEverett

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It is impossible. There is not a chance in hell they would ever put AU in it while some other team wins the SEC with so many other 1-loss teams out there like ND, USC, ext...
There are tons of scenarios showing that it is possible.
 

MLU

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It's no more impossible than say Oklahoma making it way through the season, but falling to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game and making it to the Nat'l Championship game.

Improbable? Absolutely.

Impossible? Sorry, but no. If the BCS has proven anything it's that anything is possible...
 

OhioSaint

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What if Ohio State and Michigan stay 1 and 2 in the BCS. Would the NC game be Ohio state v/s Michigan??? I can see this happening.
 

JimEverett

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There is a scenario showing Boise State to make it to the BCSCG as well.

But it won't happen under any circumstances
Boise St. is 14th in the BCS, Auburn is 6th - that's a huge difference.
Assuming Auburn wins this weekend tehy will be 5th in the BCS since West Virginia will fall back.
Auburn is the second highest ranked one-loss team in the BCS. Florids is the highest ranked one-loss team. If Florida loses and Auburn keeps winning it seems likely that Auburn will at least be third in the BCS after the Ohio St.-Michigan game. They could be second depending on how everyone ranks Louisville and if Louisville can get by Rutgers.
I wouldn;t say its highly likely Auburn makes it, but if a one-loss-team does make it this year, its more than likely going to be Florida or Auburn that does it.
 

ThibodauxSaint

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What if Ohio State and Michigan stay 1 and 2 in the BCS. Would the NC game be Ohio state v/s Michigan??? I can see this happening.
Well this would be a test for the BCS system. One of the things they were suppose to fix was late season losses counting more against a team than early season losses. If the system is indeed fixed, which I doubt, then the loser of the Ohio St./Michigan game should still have a shot at the NC game because their one loss would be against a much better opponent than any of the other 1 loss teams.
 

jasonl55

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Well this would be a test for the BCS system. One of the things they were suppose to fix was late season losses counting more against a team than early season losses. If the system is indeed fixed, which I doubt, then the loser of the Ohio St./Michigan game should still have a shot at the NC game because their one loss would be against a much better opponent than any of the other 1 loss teams.

Not necessarily, Arkansas lost to USC which was the number 2 team in the country and if not for a loss to Oregon State would still be the number 2 team in the country. It is way too early to say who should be playing for the National Championship. After watching Ohio State struggle against Illinois and Michigan against Ball State, Who knows!!
 

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