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Well this would be a test for the BCS system. One of the things they were suppose to fix was late season losses counting more against a team than early season losses. If the system is indeed fixed, which I doubt, then the loser of the Ohio St./Michigan game should still have a shot at the NC game because their one loss would be against a much better opponent than any of the other 1 loss teams.
Not necessarily, Arkansas lost to USC which was the number 2 team in the country and if not for a loss to Oregon State would still be the number 2 team in the country. It is way too early to say who should be playing for the National Championship. After watching Ohio State struggle against Illinois and Michigan against Ball State, Who knows!!