Is There Anyone In This Draft Worth Trading Up For Unless the Compensation Is Relatively Small? (2 Viewers)

[AdamWest]

They had a vision for these guys to develop into more and they didn't. What's that saying about missing 100% of the shots you don't take?

I notice you didn't mention trading up to get Olave.

They drafted an EDGE rusher in Baun and immediately tried to turn him into a off the ball LB. That is bad coaching from the jump.

Anyhow, to answer the question - what's considered relatively small? I'm going to go with Dalton Kincaid.

 

[sammymvpknight]

They drafted an EDGE rusher in Baun and immediately tried to turn him into a off the ball LB. That is bad coaching from the jump.

Anyhow, to answer the question - what's considered relatively small? I'm going to go with Dalton Kincaid.

Baun was never going to be a DE…way too small

 

[AdamWest]

Baun was never going to be a DE…way too small

Didn't say DE, I said EDGE. His role in the NFL should have always been that of a Justin Houston, Aldon Smith, Melvin Ingram, etc. An EDGE that plays from the 2-point position & predominantly is used to rush the passer on 80% of the snaps he is on the field. That's exactly who he was at Wisconsin. To draft him and immediately try to make him in a weakside linebacker was bad coaching all around. But, they might do the same thing with Andre Carter soon so we'll see.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Didn't say DE, I said EDGE. His role in the NFL should have always been that of a Justin Houston, Aldon Smith, Melvin Ingram, etc. An EDGE that plays from the 2-point position & predominantly is used to rush the passer on 80% of the snaps he is on the field. That's exactly who he was at Wisconsin. To draft him and immediately try to make him in a weakside linebacker was bad coaching all around. But, they might do the same thing with Andre Carter soon so we'll see.

DE and Edge are used interchangeably these days. Not all edges have their hands on the ground. Baun was significantly smaller than the guys you have listed. He’s 6’3” 225. At that size, he could be considered undersized at LB. Forget about edge/DE…or anything else you want to call the outside pass rusher.

 

[RJS]

I don't have any issue with trade ups like the one made for Trautman. I think context is important. Not all draft classes are equal in talent. The Saints may have only had draftable grades on +/- 100 players in the 2020 class.

Compare the players drafted in rounds 4-7 and see how many of them have been more productive than Callaway, Gilliken, Juwan Johnson, Malcolm Roach and Throckmorton.

 

[BigDSaintsFan]

I think we should just stay where we are. If we are going to trade, we should trade down. Team has a lot of holes to fill.

 

[jboss]

I think we should just stay where we are. If we are going to trade, we should trade down. Team has a lot of holes to fill.

Only way I see a trade down is a team that wants the fifth year option on a certain player. The 29th pick isn't a particularly appealing spot to trade into. Just gotta hope the war room takes more calls than they make.

 

[Bayouboy]

Only way I see a trade down is a team that wants the fifth year option on a certain player. The 29th pick isn't a particularly appealing spot to trade into. Just gotta hope the war room takes more calls than they make.

Saints will not trade down. Look at history. I don't think they ever traded down under Loomis.

 

[jboss]

Saints will not trade down. Look at history. I don't think they ever traded down under Loomis.

Starting the think the Saints war room phones are only set up to make outgoing calls

 

[AdamWest]

DE and Edge are used interchangeably these days. Not all edges have their hands on the ground. Baun was significantly smaller than the guys you have listed. He’s 6’3” 225. At that size, he could be considered undersized at LB. Forget about edge/DE…or anything else you want to call the outside pass rusher.

I understand that DE and EDGE as terms are interchangeable; however, how they play the position is still different. DEs often play out of a three-point stance to rush the passer or stop the run. EDGEs often play out of a two-point stance but depending on their function in team's specific defenses can only rush the passer at times. This was Baun at Wisconsin. The Saints eventually thought he could be what Kaden Ellis was last season or become Joe Schobert in his prime who was an EDGE in college who had a few seasons of being a good off the ball linebacker. It never made sense for Baun to be used that way especially since he struggled at it during the Senior Bowl. But the coaching staff has rarely tried to use him predominantly how he was deployed in college which again - was a bad projection, bad coaching decision and bad pick. When you throw in that they thought about taking Baun as high as Round 1 in 2020 then it's a big miss.

 

[madsaint1967]

Looking at percentages of players who earn a second contract that are picked after round 3 is eye opening. Less than 18% of picks 4-7 rnd, get a second contract or are still with the team. I think that rounds 1-3 are crucial and that's how Mickey looks at it. I'm coming over to the trade up idea but only if we use 4-7 round picks to do it, still don't like giving 1st and 2nd round picks away!

 

[Hedon James]

Looking at percentages of players who earn a second contract that are picked after round 3 is eye opening. Less than 18% of picks 4-7 rnd, get a second contract or are still with the team. I think that rounds 1-3 are crucial and that's how Mickey looks at it. I'm coming over to the trade up idea but only if we use 4-7 round picks to do it, still don't like giving 1st and 2nd round picks away!

I have been a vocal proponent of TRADE DOWN and accumulate MORE picks, for YEARS. Purely for statistical reasons. More picks = more opportunities for starters = more opportunities for an anomaly to defy the odds.

But you bring up an interesting point....the success rate in those lower rounds is actually quite low. A pick is a pick, but you would need at least 5 7th round picks to statistically simulate the success rate of a 1st rounder. That's not sustainable either.

We don't get to make those decisions, and nobody in the Saints org is listening to our thoughts (as it should be, LOL!), but I'll come around to your line of thinking if I can make 2 tweaks to your thoughts.....can we make rounds 1-4 the crucial rounds? The Saints have made some very good picks in the 4th round....off the top of my head, Jahri Evans and Ceedy Duce. Conversely, the Saints have not been very good in the 1st, IMO....performing below statistical expected average. Accordingly, they have been very good, perhaps one of the best, drafting in rounds 2-4 and with UDFA. I'm hard pressed to think of many solid picks in the 5th round (Carl Nicks is all I can think of)....we've been abysmal in the 6th....and outside of Marques Colston and Zach Strief, have any other 7th rounders made the roster? That's 2 that I can remember in 17 years. So yes, I could get behind the concept of packaging lower round picks to move up in the 2-4 rounds, where we have been VERY GOOD, IMO. In fact, that's good business to convert low-quality picks into leverage for your strength.

On the other hand, we're terrible in the 1st, IMO, during the Ireland/Loomis regime. Our 1st round picks are below the statistically expected "hit" rate. And we're trading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to do it. Sometimes MULTIPLE 2nd, 3rd, & 4ths. When the 1st rounder fails to perform, it has a multiplier effect, because we're lacking the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th round picks (that we're actually GOOD at) to either pick up the slack, or to challenge the under-performing 1st rounder for his starting role. So that's my proposed 2nd tweak....no more trading up in the 1st! Or maybe "capping" the number of slots to move up....no more than the combined value of the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders. If we see value in a player that's sliding, clearly sliding beyond their "bubble", we SHOULD consider moving up to grab them. But jumping up 10+/- slots is KILLING our mid-round selections, which is where our drafting strength really stands out. We're trading our KNOWN strength, for an educated GUESS...and we're wrong more often than right....and haven't gotten a single game-changer to show for it. I'd even argue for 1st round trade-downs to accumulate more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.

So those are my 2 proposed tweaks to your thesis....only trade up using 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders and CAP 1st round maneuvering using that restriction, or even trade down to gain more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. OR, stay put and draft the BDPA (best darn player available!)....even if that means you're drafting Deuce McAllister, despite Ricky Williams already being on the roster with the starting position locked up. You cool with those tweaks MadSaint? I'm onboard...

 

[madsaint1967]

I have been a vocal proponent of TRADE DOWN and accumulate MORE picks, for YEARS. Purely for statistical reasons. More picks = more opportunities for starters = more opportunities for an anomaly to defy the odds.

But you bring up an interesting point....the success rate in those lower rounds is actually quite low. A pick is a pick, but you would need at least 5 7th round picks to statistically simulate the success rate of a 1st rounder. That's not sustainable either.

We don't get to make those decisions, and nobody in the Saints org is listening to our thoughts (as it should be, LOL!), but I'll come around to your line of thinking if I can make 2 tweaks to your thoughts.....can we make rounds 1-4 the crucial rounds? The Saints have made some very good picks in the 4th round....off the top of my head, Jahri Evans and Ceedy Duce. Conversely, the Saints have not been very good in the 1st, IMO....performing below statistical expected average. Accordingly, they have been very good, perhaps one of the best, drafting in rounds 2-4 and with UDFA. I'm hard pressed to think of many solid picks in the 5th round (Carl Nicks is all I can think of)....we've been abysmal in the 6th....and outside of Marques Colston and Zach Strief, have any other 7th rounders made the roster? That's 2 that I can remember in 17 years. So yes, I could get behind the concept of packaging lower round picks to move up in the 2-4 rounds, where we have been VERY GOOD, IMO. In fact, that's good business to convert low-quality picks into leverage for your strength.

On the other hand, we're terrible in the 1st, IMO, during the Ireland/Loomis regime. Our 1st round picks are below the statistically expected "hit" rate. And we're trading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to do it. Sometimes MULTIPLE 2nd, 3rd, & 4ths. When the 1st rounder fails to perform, it has a multiplier effect, because we're lacking the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th round picks (that we're actually GOOD at) to either pick up the slack, or to challenge the under-performing 1st rounder for his starting role. So that's my proposed 2nd tweak....no more trading up in the 1st! Or maybe "capping" the number of slots to move up....no more than the combined value of the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders. If we see value in a player that's sliding, clearly sliding beyond their "bubble", we SHOULD consider moving up to grab them. But jumping up 10+/- slots is KILLING our mid-round selections, which is where our drafting strength really stands out. We're trading our KNOWN strength, for an educated GUESS...and we're wrong more often than right....and haven't gotten a single game-changer to show for it. I'd even argue for 1st round trade-downs to accumulate more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.

So those are my 2 proposed tweaks to your thesis....only trade up using 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders and CAP 1st round maneuvering using that restriction, or even trade down to gain more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. OR, stay put and draft the BDPA (best darn player available!)....even if that means you're drafting Deuce McAllister, despite Ricky Williams already being on the roster with the starting position locked up. You cool with those tweaks MadSaint? I'm onboard...

I like the 4th round too, just didn't realize the drop-off. But I'm good with it. AND I do think 2nd thru 4th round is our sweet spot.

 

[FlySaint]

I’d like us to stockpile picks in the first three rounds. And since there’s only 20 or so with first round value I’d be happier with a trade back to get another late 2nd or 3rd with #29.

If we have to move up we do have a bunch of 5th and 7th round picks. The odds of one of them contributing are long, plus we have to have room on the final roster.

If we can get 4 players in the first three rounds let’s do that.