It's been 7 years since a team made the Super Bowl without a 1st Round bye. And it gets worse. (2 Viewers)

[IceHot]

Exponentially might be an overstatement. Although the stat I found interesting in your graphic is that a team with a bye is 7.3x more likely to reach a super bowl than one without a bye. That's significant.

It's not quite as tragic as some of us would like to make out, though.

After all, we were sat in the #1 seed last year, all the stats said we therefore had a high probability of progressing. Of course we know what happened.

Play the games and let them come.

Exponential can be misleading with small sets of data:

2-squared
2x2
and 2+2 all solve to 4

Nonetheless long odds only define the slope of the hill, not the impassibility of a barrier


Odds are 50-50 to make it to the SB with 13 win teams playing in the wildcard game
Titans were once a 13-3 Wildcard team that played in the Superbowl
and the last time the NFC had 3x 13-win teams none of them played in the Superbowl

 

[Madmarsha]

Honestly? I wish I couldn’t. Logically, I know how it’s going to play out. But at this point, I’m so invested I’ll watch and suffer.

This better be some next level reverse psychology, man.

 

[Saint Spud]

This better be some next level reverse psychology, man.

LOL. I wish. It’s like that girl (or guy) that you know is going to break your heart, but the heart wants what it wants.

Thankfully I quit dating those girls 10 years ago and married the right one. Haven’t figured out how to move on when I know, logically, that the football ending will break my heart.

 

[whiteshadowen]

Sure we all want that Home Field advantage. But if you have followed us this year and you can sit there and moan and groan and say we are done.... My advice to you is to just turn your TV off, take a trip to the islands or something come playoff time. You have too much of a negative outlook on things to be following a sport like football. Personally, the way this team has played and the heart they have shown and how they are a TEAM. Well, I will believe in their chances and I don't care where they are playing or who they are playing. We can win this thing. And like I said, if you can't see that from this team then you are probably following the wrong sport.

 

[Saintsphere]

So, then I guess you won’t be watching the Saints in the playoffs since you already know the outcome? Or will you watch just secretly hoping they don’t advance so you can say “I told you so”? What a sad, negative outlook.

If we win it all, he and SaintKamara can brag about reverse jinxes or whatever.

If we don't, it'll be calling us out and saying they told us so.

Win-win for posters like that.

 

[Saintsphere]

LOL. I wish. It’s like that girl (or guy) that you know is going to break your heart, but the heart wants what it wants.

Thankfully I quit dating those girls 10 years ago and married the right one. Haven’t figured out how to move on when I know, logically, that the football ending will break my heart.

Give me a break. There's a difference between guarded emotion and purely crapping on your team and telling anyone who will listen we have no chance. What you and SaintKamara have been posting is laughable.

I do not know if we will win it all. A lot has to go in our favor. Even if we get lucky with a bye/HFA, we still have to battle things like inept officiating. I know one thing though, should we go on a legendary run and win it all, posters like you will be very lucky that all of us will be in too much jubilation to care about who was in the "We have no chance" camp. But you better believe many of us will remember.

 

[Swampy Saint]

If we win it all, he and SaintKamara can brag about reverse jinxes or whatever.

If we don't, it'll be calling us out and saying they told us so.

Win-win for posters like that.

Not if you use the ignore feature on both of them.

 

[roux]

Now we're crying over the probability of spilled milk based on stats? We've been in the golden age of the Saints. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Saint Spud]

Give me a break. There's a difference between guarded emotion and purely crapping on your team and telling anyone who will listen we have no chance. What you and SaintKamara have been posting is laughable.

I do not know if we will win it all. A lot has to go in our favor. Even if we get lucky with a bye/HFA, we still have to battle things like inept officiating. I know one thing though, should we go on a legendary run and win it all, posters like you will be very lucky that all of us will be in too much jubilation to care about who was in the "We have no chance" camp. But you better believe many of us will remember.

And that’s your opinion. I really couldn’t care less who remembers what. We’re all just sharing opinions about football and I don’t take anything personal.

I live in probabilities and likely outcomes. I will keep watching because I love this team and I will hold on to the incredibly slim chance they overcome all the odds.

But the reality is that last night was our best shot to get a bye. Without the bye, the overwhelming probability is that we will not play beyond the divisional round, much less win the super bowl.

 

[TCEd]

We had the #1 seed last year & didn't go, so..... what does all that stuff really mean, anything is possible, yes... anything, so take a step back, put down the bottle & look on the bright side for a change.

 

[Saintsphere]

And that’s your opinion. I really couldn’t care less who remembers what. We’re all just sharing opinions about football and I don’t take anything personal.

I live in probabilities and likely outcomes. I will keep watching because I love this team and I will hold on to the incredibly slim chance they overcome all the odds.

But the reality is that last night was our best shot to get a bye. Without the bye, the overwhelming probability is that we will not play beyond the divisional round, much less win the super bowl.

The probability last January had us with the best odds to win the Super Bowl. One bad call ended it. A LOT goes into this game and imperfect league. You can have the best of everything and still come up short. So again, I don't mind guarded emotion. I don't mind odds/stats/probability talk. What I do mind is taking those odds as if they are gospel and preaching it means we have no shot. I'm glad you can care less who will remember what because I can assure you a lot of us can care less about your "We have no chance!" drivel come playoff time.

 

[BoNcHiE]

Whatever.

We still have a shot at either top seed next week. Anyone that wants to write off the possibility is free to do so. I'll simply remember the multitude of examples this year of bad teams beating good teams (including us) when you least expect it. I don't get any comfort out of proclaiming it impossible for us to win a SB now.

And if we are the #3 seed, so be it. This team can beat anyone, anywhere. I'd love to go play the 49ers in SF.

 

[VPCajun]

Since the modern playoff format was introduced, 79% of Super Bowl participants got the bye.

Soooo...

using Logic, the Saints should trade their #3 seed (if that is what they end up with) with the NFC East to get that juicy #4 seed!

 

[DoubleSaint]

The Giants beat the 18-0 Patriots and they didn’t even win their division.

 

[brd13]

Since the modern playoff format was introduced, 79% of Super Bowl participants got the bye.

Well if the Saints are 3rd seed that stat will be broken and you'll have to find something new to talk about.