It's been 7 years since a team made the Super Bowl without a 1st Round bye. And it gets worse. (1 Viewer)

[State Of Affairs]

how many of those teams were 13-3?

I mean... this isnt your ordinary conference year... not by a long shot.

i was going to make this point. There is a reason the higher seeds usually win, because they’re usually are the better team. I would say the disparity is very slim this season and their could easily be a lower seed advance then in the past.

 

[Madmarsha]

We're going all the way.

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

Since the modern playoff format was introduced, 79% of Super Bowl participants got the bye.

So based on this, a Wildcard round team reaches the Super Bowl once every 5 years - seems like it's past due! Lol

 

[Hedon James]

Here's a statistic to wrap our heads around...every single team that has won the Superbowl was a result of going either 3-0 or 4-0 in the playoffs. EVERY SINGLE TEAM! Not a single loss in the playoffs by any team who has hoisted the Lombardi....EVER! This includes #5 and #6 seeded wild-card champs. All we gotta do is string together 3 or 4 victories in a row and the trophy is ours. #5 and #6 seeds with 9-7 or 10-6 records have run the table against teams with better records 4 GAMES IN A ROW!!! And it happened more than once. So why can't a #3 seed with the 2nd or 3rd best record in the entire NFL do the same?

You know what the OPs statistical table tells me? Seeding may help, or hinder, but it doesn't determine outcome.

 

[superchuck500]

Is what it is. Unless one of us has a Rick Sanchez multiverse portal gun, I think we’re gonna have to overcome the odds.

Ain’t much use in worrying about it.

 

[bush2007]

No way in hell we are winning 4 games in the playoffs. We aren't built for it.

1-5 on the road and that took the greatness of Drew Brees to pull that lone win out in Philly.

God shut up bro

 

[csg1027]

Why not? What’s stopping them from doing advance scouting on all their possible opponents?

As the 2-seed, they can only play the 3. 4 or 5. Not hard to do a ton of research into those three teams and come up with solid preliminary plans.

While I do see what you're getting at, I don't see at as the large advantage you're making it out to be.

 

[csg1027]

Where is that rule written?

Never said it was a rule. I have a hard time believing a coach would spend the bye week making two game plans. I could be wrong, but I don't see this as a vast advantage.

 

[mccombmike]

How many #3 seeds were 13-3?

I'm a big stats believer, but stats can lie.

According to the stats, 25% of teams with a #3 seed will make the Super Bowl. This sounds bad, but remember that most years the playoffs are full of 9-7 teams that just slipped in.

This year the NFC is stronger than the AFC, and there are four teams -- Saints, Seahawks, Niners, and the Packers -- that could each easily be #1 seeds in a normal year. This is one of those outlier years where the strength of the 3-4 seeds is so good that I wouldn't rule out a run by one of them.

You have to look at the depth of the teams that will make it.

Give me the Saints this year and a number 3 and I like the odds much better than the average 3 in an average year.

 

[Drummergirl]

So, then I guess you won’t be watching the Saints in the playoffs since you already know the outcome? Or will you watch just secretly hoping they don’t advance so you can say “I told you so”? What a sad, negative outlook.

 

[Saint Spud]

So, then I guess you won’t be watching the Saints in the playoffs since you already know the outcome? Or will you watch just secretly hoping they don’t advance so you can say “I told you so”? What a sad, negative outlook.

Honestly? I wish I couldn’t. Logically, I know how it’s going to play out. But at this point, I’m so invested I’ll watch and suffer.

 

[11saints]

Since the modern playoff format was introduced, 79% of Super Bowl participants got the bye.

Cool.

So from next year on we'll simply add NO '19* at 3rd seed and change %.

And let new team next year at the verge of 3rd seed worry about those improbable stats again.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Drummergirl]

Honestly? I wish I couldn’t. Logically, I know how it’s going to play out. But at this point, I’m so invested I’ll watch and suffer.

Actually, I feel ya. I try to temper my expectations so as to avoid the horrible feeling of suffering another last second loss. I don’t know that I can take another loss like we had the last two years. But I will still watch and cheer them on and try to be positive because they have proven a lot about their resiliency this year. Anything can happen if they come together and play like we all know they are capable of playing!

 

[Hedon James]

I'm a big stats believer, but stats can lie.

According to the stats, 25% of teams with a #3 seed will make the Super Bowl. This sounds bad, but remember that most years the playoffs are full of 9-7 teams that just slipped in.

This year the NFC is stronger than the AFC, and there are four teams -- Saints, Seahawks, Niners, and the Packers -- that could each easily be #1 seeds in a normal year. This is one of those outlier years where the strength of the 3-4 seeds is so good that I wouldn't rule out a run by one of them.

You have to look at the depth of the teams that will make it.

Give me the Saints this year and a number 3 and I like the odds much better than the average 3 in an average year.

EXACTLY! Baltimore already has #1 seed locked up at 13-2, so they could finish as the #1 seed at 13-3 in AFC this year. Slide over to the NFC and there's a very real probability that a 13-3 team will be a #5 seed wild card this year.

OP graph says over 75% of SB teams come from top 2 seeds. By correlation, those top 2 seeds represent the 4 best teams in the league in any given year. So over 75% of SB teams were one of the 4 best teams in the league that year? I'd take that bet EVERY year.

It just happens that there will likely be 5 13-3 teams this year (1 AFC & 4 NFC). Factor in the #2 AFC seed is likely to be 12-4, and there's probably 7 teams with 12-4 records or better this year; when 12-4 usually guarantees a #1 or #2 seed. So if there's a year when the OP graph means less, this is that year!

 

[26ISTHEMAN]

All I can say is thank God Super Bowls are not won or lost on statistics. There would be no need to play them if that were the case.

We may not win it this year, but gosh darn it, this team has overcome some ginormous adversity and sits at 12-3 with a chance at the 2 seed and a mathematical chance at the #1. If we go into the playoffs healthy, I think we're the best team in the NFC, and that's worth more than a seed based on tiebreakers.