Our Biggest Offensive Weakness Remains 3rd Down (3rd and 7+, specifically) (1 Viewer)

[Challenger]

Here's the info. I founded on Twitter.



I think we've all talked about how we need for at least one of our WR's besides Thomas to step up down the stretch, and that is probably the most logical way to go about getting better in this area, so a lot of our progress here will probably depend on how Smith and Meredith develop.

Now, I realize that most of the teams on the top of this category are not contenders this year, but neither are the Cardinals or Giants who join us at the bottom of this list.

If we could just elevate ourselves from the "worst of" in this category, it could really help take our offense to the next level, and would give us an edge over Carolina, who is right on our tail in the division race and also right there at the bottom with us.

This isn't a complaint, merely just a point of discussion; there will always be room for improvement, after all!

 

[St.Fury]

Now put up the 4th down numbers. ?

 

[mjcouvi]

Now put up the 4th down numbers. ?

Saints are 2nd in 4th down conversion percentage behind Tampa Bay. Saints are 87.5% (7/8), Bucs are (100%) 6/6.

Saints are tied for 10th in 4th down attempts.

 

[St.Fury]

I’d like a look deeper into these numbers. I have questions.
1) What is our percentage of being in a 3rd & long situation and how does that compare to other teams. If I recall correctly, we’ve only punted once in the last two games.
2) How many of those still ended in a FG?
3) Gow many of those resulted in a 4th and short where we converted?

We’ve done a really nice job of sustaining drives, it seems. Minnesota had a better time if possession, but that wasn’t because we couldn’t sustain drives. We had multiple long drives. But, we also had a short field at the end of the first half, as well as a defensive score which took away an offensive possession. Even in the Baltimore game, that first drive took a ton of time off the clock. How many times did we go for it on 4th in that drive? I think it was 4?

So, yeah. My point us, this graphic doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

[Stalwart385]

Now put up the 4th down numbers. ?

Good point. The number of attempts is also important imo. Here are the overall numbers.

3rd down attempts - 80 (31st)
3rd down % - 42.5% (11th)

4th down attempts - 8 (t10th)
4th down % - 87.5% (2nd)

Just how many 3rd & 7+ do we end up in? I would guess very low if our overall 3rd down attempts are that low and overall success rate that high.

So we rarely get in third down and when we do we tend to be close enough to go on 4th down, for a total success rate of 46.6%, 6th in the league.

 

[St.Fury]

Good point. The number of attempts is important also imo. Here are the overall numbers.

3rd down attempts - 80 (31st)
3rd down % - 42.5% (11th)

4th down attempts - 8 (t10th)
4th down % - 87.5% (2nd)

Just how many 3rd & 7+ do we end up in? I would guess very low if our overall 3rd down attempts are that low and overall success rate that high.

Great post.

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

If we could just rise up from the "worst of" in this category,

"Rise up"? Lol. Is that some kind of freudian slip? I know the Falcons are at the top of this tweet, but come on!

If we could just rise up from the "worst of" in this category, it could really help take our offense to the next level, and would give us an edge over Carolina, who is right on our tail in the division race and also right there at the bottom with us.

I don't think this 3rd down and 7+ stat is that important unless you are regularly only picking up 3 yards or less on the firsf two downs. Matt Ryan gets sacked so much this year that this stat is real important for the Falcons.

Here is the real 3rd down percentage rankings:

(Saints are #11 overall - and I believe they've been improving)

 

[Bartyboy]

Another thing.
4th in TOP
2nd in scoring.

 

[Challenger]

It isn't the whole story, but we were 1st in 4th down conversions last year despite our 3rd down rate being an all time low. I think it could have made a difference in the playoffs last year, as we were 2/9 on 3rd down against Minnesota in the div. round, and could not score until the 4th quarter. IMO, the dismal 3rd down rate came back to bite us in the end.

We also didn't face a lot of 3rd downs in 2009 or 2011 either, but were still in the top 6 both years in 3rd down conversion percentage. We're 11th overall in 3rd down this year. Our 3rd down woes from last year seemed to carry over into the 1st part of the season too, but this has gotten better as of late, so that, too, would affect the overall percentage.

Here's a breakdown of the last game. It's actually pretty good especially considering that it was against the #1 3rd down defense in the league... great, even.

It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. When we NEED to convert on 3rd and 7+, however, it would be nice to be able to. This is a game of inches, after all.

 

[Challenger]

"Rise up"? Lol. Is that some kind of freudian slip? I know the Falcons are at the top of this tweet, but come on!

Here is the real 3rd down percentage rankings:

(Saints are #11 overall - and I believe they've been improving)

Sorry about the "rise up" terminology. I should have known that would not do here! You'll see I have changed it!

Also, yes, as I mentioned in my last post, we appear to be improving. We were 11th on 3rd down over our last 3 games, however, we did just play two of the top five 3rd down defenses in the league, on the road, no less, so I think we did come out alright! Ideally, I would like to see us back to our top 5-6 selves, and I would like to see Smith and Meredith involved more, regardless, but 3rd down is no longer a huge weakness like it was last year. Ranking in the top half of the league there is not too shabby!

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

Sorry about the "rise up" terminology. I should have known that would not do here! You'll see I have changed it!

Lol. Yes, that's two words that should not be spoken when talking about the Saints.

Also, yes, as I mentioned in my last post, we appear to be improving. We were 11th on 3rd down over our last 3 games, however, we did just play two of the top five 3rd down defenses in the league, on the road, no less, so I think we did come out alright! Ideally, I would like to see us back to our top 5-6 selves, and I would like to see Smith and Meredith involved more, regardless, but 3rd down is no longer a huge weakness like it was last year. Ranking in the top half of the league there is not too shabby!

I saw these splits below and found them interesting...

The Saints are 44% 3rd down conv % on the road. Compare that with the Rams 3rd down conv % on the road. Also look how we've been doing the last 3 games and how bad we were last year.

 

[Challenger]

I don't think this 3rd down and 7+ stat is that important unless you are regularly only picking up 3 yards or less on the firsf two downs. Matt Ryan gets sacked so much this year that this stat is real important for the Falcons.

That's another very great point! It actually reminds me of something else I just saw regarding 3rd down.



Obviously, if most of your 3rd downs are 3rd and shorts, you can do this with a high success rate, and the teams that are approaching it this way - and that includes us - all have winning records. Surely, there is a lot that is right here thus far. By no means did I mean to imply that something was dreadfully wrong!

And I'd like to take a moment to thank everyone for what they've added to this discussion. It's great to have a civil discussion exploring this from different angles...

 

[BiloxiSaint1]

That's another very great point! It actually reminds me of something else I just saw regarding 3rd down.

That is a great find! It also means the Saints need to be prepared to stop Gurley for short gains on 3rd down. Hopefully our run D will be in top form.