Stats that matter IMO (2 Viewers)

[saints51]

I would like to post some stats that i personally believe tell more about a team than the general stats people always use. I have been a handicapper for many years and have designed systems to give me scores of games. Some of the key stats i use are yards per play on Offense and Defense and points per play. I think those stats tell you how good an offense or defense really is. There are a few more key stats I use but these tell me exactly how good a team really is on each side of the ball. Gonna make another post to discuss.

HERE IS THE OFFENSE YARDS PER PLAY.

Rank Team 2010
1 San Diego (6-6) 6.2
2 Philadelphia (8-4) 6.1
3 Houston (5-7) 5.9
4 NY Giants (8-4) 5.9
5 New Orleans (9-3) 5.9
6 New England (10-2)5.9
7 Green Bay (8-4) 5.9
8 Dallas (4-8) 5.7
9 Denver (3-9) 5.6
10 Kansas City (8-4) 5.6
11 Indianapolis (6-6) 5.6
12 Minnesota (5-7) 5.5
13 Pittsburgh (9-3) 5.5
14 Washington (5-7) 5.4
15 Tampa Bay (7-5) 5.3
16 Tennessee (5-7) 5.3
17 Jacksonville (7-5) 5.2
18 San Francisco (4-8)5.2
19 NY Jets (9-3) 5.2
20 Baltimore (8-4) 5.2
21 Oakland (6-6) 5.2
22 Miami (6-6) 5.2
23 Atlanta (10-2) 5.2
24 Buffalo (2-10) 5.2
25 Cleveland (5-7) 5.1
26 Seattle (6-6) 5.1
27 Chicago (9-3) 5.0
28 Detroit (2-10) 5.0
29 Cincinnati (2-10) 5.0
30 Arizona (3-9) 4.7
31 St Louis (6-6) 4.7
32 Carolina (1-11) 4.3



DEFENSE YARDS PER PLAY

1 San Diego (6-6) 4.7
2 Pittsburgh (9-3) 4.8
3 Chicago (9-3) 4.9
4 NY Giants (8-4) 4.9
5 NY Jets (9-3) 4.9
6 Miami (6-6) 5.0
7 Baltimore (8-4) 5.1
8 Minnesota (5-7) 5.1
9 Tennessee (5-7) 5.1
10 New Orleans (9-3)5.1
11 Carolina (1-11) 5.1
12 Green Bay (8-4) 5.1
13 San Francisco (4-8)5.2
14 Kansas City (8-4) 5.2
15 Philadelphia (8-4) 5.2
16 Cleveland (5-7) 5.3
17 Oakland (6-6) 5.4
18 St Louis (6-6) 5.4
19 Tampa Bay (7-5) 5.4
20 Indianapolis (6-6) 5.4
21 Buffalo (2-10) 5.5
22 Seattle (6-6) 5.6
23 Arizona (3-9) 5.7
24 Cincinnati (2-10) 5.7
25 Detroit (2-10) 5.7
26 New England (10-2)5.7
27 Denver (3-9) 5.8
28 Atlanta (10-2) 5.8
29 Dallas (4-8) 5.8
30 Washington (5-7) 5.9
31 Houston (5-7) 6.1
32 Jacksonville (7-5) 6.2



OFFENSE POINTS PER PLAY

1 New England (10-2)0.525
2 Philadelphia (8-4)0.439
3 San Diego (6-6)0.421
4 Green Bay (8-4)0.414
5 Tennessee (5-7)0.395
6 NY Giants (8-4)0.394
7 Indianapolis (6-6)0.386
8 Dallas (4-8)0.384
9 Houston (5-7)0.382
10 New Orleans (9-3)0.377
11 Kansas City (8-4)0.369
12 Pittsburgh (9-3)0.367
13 Atlanta (10-2)0.367
14 Oakland (6-6)0.363
15 Chicago (9-3)0.343
16 Detroit (2-10)0.340
17 Denver (3-9)0.336
18 Buffalo (2-10)0.335
19 Seattle (6-6)0.334
20 Tampa Bay (7-5)0.333
21 Jacksonville (7-5)0.332
22 Baltimore (8-4)0.331
23 NY Jets (9-3)0.328
24 Cincinnati (2-10)0.321
25 Cleveland (5-7)0.319
26 Minnesota (5-7)0.306
27 Washington (5-7)0.298
28 Arizona (3-9)0.295
29 St Louis (6-6)0.287
30 San Francisco (4-8)0.280
31 Miami (6-6)0.277
32 Carolina (1-11)0.210


DEFENSE ALLOWED POINTS PER PLAY

1 Green Bay (8-4)0.246
2 Pittsburgh (9-3)0.253
3 Chicago (9-3)0.259
4 Tennessee (5-7)0.276
5 Baltimore (8-4)0.277
6 Cleveland (5-7)0.304
7 Kansas City (8-4)0.308
8 NY Jets (9-3)0.309
9 New Orleans (9-3)0.315
10 St Louis (6-6)0.319
11 Miami (6-6)0.326
12 Atlanta (10-2)0.327
13 New England (10-2)0.330
14 Tampa Bay (7-5)0.339
15 San Francisco (4-8)0.344
16 NY Giants (8-4)0.346
17 Seattle (6-6)0.346
18 San Diego (6-6)0.351
19 Minnesota (5-7)0.354
20 Oakland (6-6)0.363
21 Washington (5-7)0.365
22 Philadelphia (8-4)0.377
23 Indianapolis (6-6)0.384
24 Carolina (1-11)0.386
25 Buffalo (2-10)0.405
26 Arizona (3-9)0.412
27 Detroit (2-10)0.415
28 Houston (5-7)0.419
29 Denver (3-9)0.422
30 Jacksonville (7-5)0.429
31 Cincinnati (2-10)0.437
32 Dallas (4-8)0.452

 

[saints51]

I use these stats often to guage a team on how good they are. if you plug in a few other stats and create a formula you can come up with scores of the games. I will not get into how to do it but would like to discuss this. It brings up interesting conversations when math nerds like myself love sports.

With the offensive stats you know the higher the number the better the offense.
On defense its the complete opposite. You want a lower number to be the best.

By looking at these stats you can see how the general stats can become skewed when looking at rankings. I am showing you 2 different ways from a handicappers prospective of stats that matter and they are still different to some degree.But I know these stats tell you a better way of looking at a teams ranking than the general crap they put on tv and in the papers.I hope yall enjoy them and feel free to discuss.

 

[SaintRob39]

If u tell me the rest of your formula then I will really find this post helpful.

 

[CantonLegend]

very interesting......it would seem like the league rankings are less helpful when you take these numbers into account

 

[Sophandros]

I like your use of efficiency metrics rather than just counting. One thing, though. I would use points per possession as another key stat, both on offense and defense. If you factor in yards per possession, then you get a more robust effeciency metric.

 

[saints51]

Lets do an example of a quick look without getting too deep.

SAINTS vs Rams

Saints Offense Rankings
tied for 3rd on OYPP
10th on OPPP
vs.
Rams Defensive Rankings
Tied for 8th on DYPP
10th on DPPP

Quick Summary - Rams defense is better than it appears and can give the Saints offense trouble. Injuries in the secondary will cause the numbers to become worse if the safety and corner are out who are the 2 best players in the secondary for the Rams if not the whole defense. Another way is to see what the Rams stats look like on the road and check the Saints stats at home and compare. Conclusion- Saints offense is the advantage because at home and Rams secondary injured.

Saints Defense
Tied for 5th on DYPP
9th on DPPP
vs.
Rams Offense
Tied for 12th(which is horrible) OYPP
29th OPPP

Summary - Rams offense will have a hard time scoring in the dome. Offense is horrible and going against a top 10 defense at home with noise will be hard to overcome. Rams offense will have to maintain drives to stay competitive or it could get ugly.



OVERALL - They key will be turnovers in this game. If the Saints stay 0 or +1 they should dominate this game. If they are -1 or worse the Rams can make this close. The only way the Rams win the turnover margin is if the safety and cornerback for the rams play. If not it will not happen. Saints offense may struggle early but if the defense goes 3 and out often the Rams defense should wear down rather quickly due to lack of depth in the secondary allowing the passing game to open up for big plays.

Also the special teams for the Saints will be key. if the kickoff and punt team keep allowing good field position for the opposition it may make this game easier for the Rams to stay in striking distance by having field position. This puts the defense in bad situations and can allow a close game. Special teams is key.

 

[saints51]

If u tell me the rest of your formula then I will really find this post helpful.

hehe. trust me it took me forever to figure it out. Its right infront of you. Trust me when i say right infront of you. Just think about it.

very interesting......it would seem like the league rankings are less helpful when you take these numbers into account

They really are. I just hear a lot of people get caught up in what I call the ESPN and USA Today stats. All junk. You have to look at it with different angles. We can all add up total yards made and allowed to make a ranking but what defines an offense or defense is how was it done and what does it take to score.

I like your use of efficiency metrics rather than just counting. One thing, though. I would use points per possession as another key stat, both on offense and defense. If you factor in yards per possession, then you get a more robust effeciency metric.

Points per possession is another good one. I do like that one and do look at it. I even have a formula for it but find the ones I am showing are more accurate in the makeup of offense/defense. But it is a good one to look at and if you would make a ranking to average them all out and get a list of 1-32 then i would include it also. Great little stat especially in hoops.(wink)

 

[lilvipa221]

anybody find it weird that the chargers are number one in like every stat?

 

[saints51]

anybody find it weird that the chargers are number one in like every stat?

like I said this is a better way of seeing how good a team is. There are a few more key stats I did not include. But you can guess what we need to look at. But I will say it. We still need to look at special teams and turnovers. I am sure we can find out why.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-play

There is the link. It has all the info you could imagine and all kind of cool stats to examine.

 

[saints51]

anybody find it weird that the chargers are number one in like every stat?

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/giveaways-per-game

San Diego ranked almost last in giveaways and is prolly why they are 6-6 but still need to dig deeper.

 

[Bartyboy]

I love stats as well. But your stats don't explain ATL.
OYPP
23 Atlanta (10-2) 5.2
OPPP
13 Atlanta (10-2)0.367
DYPP
28 Atlanta (10-2)
DAPPP
12 Atlanta (10-2)0.327

 

[Bongzilla]

I love stats as well. But your stats don't explain ATL.
OYPP
23 Atlanta (10-2) 5.2
OPPP
13 Atlanta (10-2)0.367
DYPP
28 Atlanta (10-2)
DAPPP
12 Atlanta (10-2)0.327

perhaps they do. Perhaps it tells us what everyone already knows, ATL is a pretty good but not great team. Which has (done what it takes/gotten lucky breaks all year)........................................... -> SO FAR

 

[saints51]

I love stats as well. But your stats don't explain ATL.
OYPP
23 Atlanta (10-2) 5.2
OPPP
13 Atlanta (10-2)0.367
DYPP
28 Atlanta (10-2)
DAPPP
12 Atlanta (10-2)0.327

This is one of the reasons I did it. I am sorry but ATL is having a run of good luck. See last season the Saints stats showed they were good and not a fluke. ATL is a fluke and will not win 1 playoff game. Plus some of the Falcon games I watched was influenced by the zebras. I seen the refs bail them out with some B.S. Also include other teams poor coaching. Mike Mc Carthy of the paks should of challenged that 4th down drop by butterfinger Gonzales but he didn't and 3 plays later 7 was on the board. If you flip that the Falcons are gonna be playing catch up all game. Its things like that is why the Falcons are where they are. They will fall. There season will last one week longer than the Panthers and instead of a top 10 draft pick will have to be in the back with us haha.

 

[saints51]

perhaps they do. Perhaps it tells us what everyone already knows, ATL is a pretty good but not great team. Which has (done what it takes/gotten lucky breaks all year)........................................... -> SO FAR

I hate the Falcons but will say they are decent but overrated. there not complete garbage but they sure in hell ain't in upper class either. There record is surrounded by jokes.

On a side note everytime I see that play 60 commercial with the Falcons on the bus I think of sexual predators that need to be arrested.

 

[Day1]

Statistics are not for losers. I know, it took me five tries to pass Stats.