The entire NFL is on the verge of major change on offense (3 Viewers)

[jahsoul357]

Do you use SIS Data Hub? I thought I saw you source it once. It has a few more pieces of data I wish I had, although I don’t remember it being play by play.

I love SIS Datahub and I did that Pro trial and was hooked but not enough to pay $99 a month..lol

 

[Rouxble]

I love SIS Datahub and I did that Pro trial and was hooked but not enough to pay $99 a month..lol

LOL, I get it, I was just curious if there was any additional data (play-by-play) to be had with the paid subscription. I can still get enough data from there through the trial, it would just be nice to tie some of it to individual plays.

FTN has their own service for the low low price of $600 per year, also out of my price range.

 

[jahsoul357]

LOL, I get it, I was just curious if there was any additional data (play-by-play) to be had with the paid subscription. I can still get enough data from there through the trial, it would just be nice to tie some of it to individual plays.

FTN has their own service for the low low price of $600 per year, also out of my price range.

I wish they had more play by play but for that, Stathead it is. I wish NGS had more.

 

[Goatman Saint]

So does this mean Allen is running Kamara up the gut for 2 yards again?

 

[Smooth_Criminal]

Watching the games the first 3 weeks of the season and it is amazing how fast the cream rises. Over the past couple of decades NFL defenses have become much faster and more complex. Between zone blitz schemes, games on the dline, crowding the line and making a QB guess on blitz vs drop and tweener LB/S and CB/S starting to take root it has become a game of making the QB hold the ball an extra second to allow defenders to get home. Defense had to evolve to stop the pass. The way it ended up working out was by defenses figuring out how to slow the pass by stopping the run with 6-7 man fronts. It's becoming increasingly rare to see offenses line up and just drive the defense off the ball, particularly early in games.

Offense is starting to evolve to defeat the modern NFL defense and it doesn't take a lot of watching other games to figure it out. Teams that can run the ball can throw the ball. Teams that can't run the ball can't hold up in pass protection. This is more than just the talent level of the offensive line. 7 of the top 8 running teams in the NFL are using a tremendous amount of motion, they are using constant misdirection and they are using speed. San Fransisco, Miami and the Chiefs are prime examples. The goal of the offense is to no longer run over the other team, it is to get them moving the opposite direction of players with speed to open up everything else on offense. Sure, they still run the ball between the tackles but instead of running a basic draw they might line up a speedy WR opposite a speedy RB next to the QB in the gun. Another speedy WR may motion to fake a jet sweep with one of the speedsters in the backfield flare out to the opposite flat and the RB gets a draw up the middle while the receivers all run routes. The motion and misdirection is designed to make space, pulling players a few yards one way or another to create space for speedy players. It's like having ghosts block for you. The end result of the play is still a pretty basic draw play. Scheming one extra long TD a game is the difference between the best offenses in the NFL and the worst. The defensive line may blow it up, they may make the tackles for 3-4 yard gains but it increases the odds one player on defense being out of position. Next, offenses can use the same formation, the same motion and pass the ball. They are moving the safeties a few steps here, a few steps there to create space for receivers. The play design is moving LB's or making them hesitate. One step can mean the difference between a typical play and a long TD in the NFL. With so much speed on the offensive side of the ball, it just takes one wrong step by a safety or LB to turn a play into a race with a track star.

Once defenses get frustrated and can't stop the run the idea is no different than it was 20 years ago. Bring an extra person down into the box to help. Well, once that happens then it creates more space in the passing game. The best teams are scheming a couple really big plays a game more than the other team. Everyone looks at Tua and the Dolphins last week with this explosive offense. What people fail to see is that they ran the ball for 350 yards.

As the game progresses, defensive linemen get tired, they get frustrated and they are suddenly a step slower.

Watching these new offenses like the Eagles, Dolphins, Chiefs and Niners is like watching a dam stop flood water that never stops rising. That dam may hold it back for a time but the water is going to continuously look for a weak spot, erode away at the dam until the whole thing collapses. These teams can start slow and then suddenly throw a 21 point quarter up. The best part, is they are keeping their QB clean by helping their offensive line and by moving the chains, keeping their defense fresh.

We have started using these concepts with Taysom some so I know the coaches are capable. When AK comes back I expect it to be even more effective. We have the speed with Olave, Shaheed and AK. I would really like to see us start using these concepts all the time because it has become quite obvious we can not run the ball without them and it has become quite obvious we can not keep the defensive line off of the QB. Making a defensive end hesitate by thinking has the exact same effect as chipping them with an extra blocker, except now the extra blocker is running routes. We have to use every eligible receiver on every part of the field and start making defensive ends worry about contain as much as they are worried about eating the QB.

It's a copycat league, time to start copying.

People hate on him, but Kyle Shanahan is a master at this.

 

[chameleonknight]

Wow great post. Definitely something to consider and I hope you’re right about Kamara

 

[woohoosaint]

Our play calling creativity has regressed while having more talented skilled positions. I don’t know if this is Carmichael putting less on new QBs plates (Winston, Dalton, Carr) until they are comfortable or just bad playcalling/scheme.

Also, execution is just bad. How does one of the best screen game teams not be able to run screens for 2 years? PFF had us 7th worst in screens with the least screens called in 2022. That’s how you give up QB hits with bad plays and execution.

 

[St. Geezy]

My goal is to share the data weekly once I get the templates built, so you’ll get the info either way.

Haha, yeah I am just clowning around. I am very familiar with it all…CSVs, pivot tables, vlookups or what have you…however I just wasn’t expecting this answer or trying to do all this work-related stuff for this data.

I definitely appreciate what you’re planning to do here though. This will be very helpful once completed.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

The Athletic just did a piece on Miami's offense. Some high points:

--Miami uses pre-snap motion on 60 percent of its plays, triple the league average.

--The five fastest runs this season were by three Dolphins--Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane. The range was 21.93 to 21.50 miles per hour. And then there is also Jaylen Waddle.

--Tua has been knocked down three times this season.

 

[play action]

Run into the brick wall or move it. If your fast enough just run. That's one of the reasons I like draws so much. The holes aren't as much blocking as selling. It's a different kind of movement. Great post,hope the coaches read it.

 

[Bill]

You can only say this offensive change will affect the "entire NFL" if the Saints do it too.

 

[liveoakh]

Good writeup. I definitely think there are still effective ways to move the ball and score points outside of this, but regardless I wouldn't expect any sort of change or copycat type of thing under this current staff. They'll scratch and claw to try and make this current offense work, unfortunately.

Hopefully next year we'll be able to hire an offensive coordinator who has a clear vision (innovative would be a nice bonus) and knows how to create a scheme with our existing talent as opposed to trying to force our current talent into an aged scheme.

You mean Ronald Curry? You weren't thinking this front office would be signing a young innovative OC from outside the building? Because that is likely not what they will do. It will be the same flavor, different guy.

 

[St. Geezy]

--Miami uses pre-snap motion on 60 percent of its plays, triple the league average.

Whoa…this is incredible.

They’re so creative.

I’m also starting to see teams utilizing pre snap motion often to give WRs head starts on their routes, faking out DBs before the play, with misdirection.

This is the type of stuff I am envious of that we just don’t seem to care to try.

 

[Rouxble]

Watching the games the first 3 weeks of the season and it is amazing how fast the cream rises. Over the past couple of decades NFL defenses have become much faster and more complex. Between zone blitz schemes, games on the dline, crowding the line and making a QB guess on blitz vs drop and tweener LB/S and CB/S starting to take root it has become a game of making the QB hold the ball an extra second to allow defenders to get home. Defense had to evolve to stop the pass. The way it ended up working out was by defenses figuring out how to slow the pass by stopping the run with 6-7 man fronts. It's becoming increasingly rare to see offenses line up and just drive the defense off the ball, particularly early in games.

Offense is starting to evolve to defeat the modern NFL defense and it doesn't take a lot of watching other games to figure it out. Teams that can run the ball can throw the ball. Teams that can't run the ball can't hold up in pass protection. This is more than just the talent level of the offensive line. 7 of the top 8 running teams in the NFL are using a tremendous amount of motion, they are using constant misdirection and they are using speed. San Fransisco, Miami and the Chiefs are prime examples. The goal of the offense is to no longer run over the other team, it is to get them moving the opposite direction of players with speed to open up everything else on offense. Sure, they still run the ball between the tackles but instead of running a basic draw they might line up a speedy WR opposite a speedy RB next to the QB in the gun. Another speedy WR may motion to fake a jet sweep with one of the speedsters in the backfield flare out to the opposite flat and the RB gets a draw up the middle while the receivers all run routes. The motion and misdirection is designed to make space, pulling players a few yards one way or another to create space for speedy players. It's like having ghosts block for you. The end result of the play is still a pretty basic draw play. Scheming one extra long TD a game is the difference between the best offenses in the NFL and the worst. The defensive line may blow it up, they may make the tackles for 3-4 yard gains but it increases the odds one player on defense being out of position. Next, offenses can use the same formation, the same motion and pass the ball. They are moving the safeties a few steps here, a few steps there to create space for receivers. The play design is moving LB's or making them hesitate. One step can mean the difference between a typical play and a long TD in the NFL. With so much speed on the offensive side of the ball, it just takes one wrong step by a safety or LB to turn a play into a race with a track star.

Once defenses get frustrated and can't stop the run the idea is no different than it was 20 years ago. Bring an extra person down into the box to help. Well, once that happens then it creates more space in the passing game. The best teams are scheming a couple really big plays a game more than the other team. Everyone looks at Tua and the Dolphins last week with this explosive offense. What people fail to see is that they ran the ball for 350 yards.

As the game progresses, defensive linemen get tired, they get frustrated and they are suddenly a step slower.

Watching these new offenses like the Eagles, Dolphins, Chiefs and Niners is like watching a dam stop flood water that never stops rising. That dam may hold it back for a time but the water is going to continuously look for a weak spot, erode away at the dam until the whole thing collapses. These teams can start slow and then suddenly throw a 21 point quarter up. The best part, is they are keeping their QB clean by helping their offensive line and by moving the chains, keeping their defense fresh.

We have started using these concepts with Taysom some so I know the coaches are capable. When AK comes back I expect it to be even more effective. We have the speed with Olave, Shaheed and AK. I would really like to see us start using these concepts all the time because it has become quite obvious we can not run the ball without them and it has become quite obvious we can not keep the defensive line off of the QB. Making a defensive end hesitate by thinking has the exact same effect as chipping them with an extra blocker, except now the extra blocker is running routes. We have to use every eligible receiver on every part of the field and start making defensive ends worry about contain as much as they are worried about eating the QB.

It's a copycat league, time to start copying.

First off, excellent post, as many have already said. I re-read it this morning while watching some clips of the various teams listed, including our own, trying to establish the run. A few thoughts, all numbers are from this year:

• Motion doesn't matter in the run game if you can't block the front. I can understand getting LB's and DB's out of position with some well-schemed movement for big plays, but if the DL is blowing up the run in the backfield, it doesn't matter.
  • 
    
  • So far this season, there is a slight negative correlation between rate of motion used in the run game and running success. Philly has the highest success rate (59.6%) and the lowest rate of motion (5.8%). Kansas City has the second highest rate of motion (73.8%), but the 10th lowest success rate (44.6%). If we remove Philly's numbers for being an outlier, motion only explains 4% of the variation in rushing success rate. I think success rate is the best measure since it displays which teams are consistently moving the ball versus YPC being skewed by big plays.
  • 
    
  • I would agree that motion can probably lead to more big run plays, but again there is almost no relationship between the rate of motion used and the rate of big runs (10+ yards). If I eliminate Miami, who is both top in motion rate and big run rate, the correlation actually turns slightly negative. I think it goes back to basics for running the football--blocking the front and having RB's that can make plays at the second level and beyond.
• 
  
• Rushing success does not usually lead to passing success. That has been the case in past studies of the relationship between the two, and seems to be the same this year. Rushing success only "explains" 9% of of the variation in passing success. The Eagles have the highest rushing success rate (59.6%) but the ninth worst passing success rate (42.2%). Despite Kansas City having the tenth lowest rushing success rate (44.6%), they have the seventh highest passing success rate (52.7%). You can either run the ball or you can't, and the same goes for passing.
• 
  
• Motion does seem to influence the passing game, explaining 30% of the variation in passing success. It's still not a cure all as stated before, with two teams in the top five for motion usage (Atlanta and Green Bay) being bottom ten in passing success rate. Miami is top in both motion and success rate, but more importantly they also have the lowest sack rate, a variable that also explains 30% of the variation in passing success.

Everyone is enamored with Miami, and rightfully so. They are top in most categories, but I think that the talent they have on that team is playing a bigger role than it gets credit for. Just use Tua as the example... he has a 110.5 QB rating under McDaniel, while other QB's that filled in for Tua last year could only muster a 72.2 QB rating.

Or use Shanahan from SF as an example, he has figured it out with Garoppolo and Purdy (100.2 combined rating on 1893 attempts), but not with other SF QB's (82.2 combined rating on 1404 attempts). His rushing success rate also jumped about 5% in 2020 and has stayed there. Just so happens Trent Williams was signed that year, grading every year since as an elite run blocker. They also have had a solid rotation of starting backs the last three years (Mostert/Mitchell/McCaffrey) compared to the first three years (Breida/Coleman/Hyde).