The Investment Thread (1 Viewer)

[St. Geezy]

Mods, please excuse the language on this tweet, but if this is true, it is game over for the hedge funds.

This ruling essentially allows the DTCC to force margin calls on over-leveraged hedge funds, or leads us to that point.The mere fact that they expedited this ruling from Monday to today says a lot in my opinion.



Now we just need 002 kicked in, and we are golden.

 

[Turfie]

Mods, please excuse the language on this tweet, but if this is true, it is game over for the hedge funds.

This ruling essentially allows the DTCC to force margin calls on over-leveraged hedge funds, or leads us to that point.The mere fact that they expedited this ruling from Monday to today says a lot in my opinion.



Now we just need 002 kicked in, and we are golden.

That’s HUGE if true. I believe this deals with FTDs and not allowing HFs to keep kicking the can down the road.

 

[St. Geezy]

That’s HUGE if true. I believe this deals with FTDs and not allowing HFs to keep kicking the can down the road.

Yep, exactly. Eliminates their ability to use the options chain to spoof positions as well.

There is no question that all these policies are putting the squeeze on these over-leveraged institutions. I think the powers that be realize that the longer this drags out, the higher their portion of the eventual bill is going to be, because The Citadel and company will be bankrupt well before all these synthetic positions they've created using margin are closed.

 

[DaveXA]

Rents for single-family homes just saw the largest gains in nearly 15 years

With home prices sky high, demand for single-family rental homes is soaring – and so are the rents.

www.cnbc.com

I think 3+ bedroom SFH rents are going keep climbing. Material costs and a pandemic with eviction restrictions may be driving this right now. Long term, the desire for home offices and millennials with student loans while raising kids with a median savings of $5k are going to make SFH rental demand grow. They won’t delay the American Dream, they’ll just rent it.

@Mr. Blue Sky

I don't know. There are a lot of people way behind on rent payments, and all of the easy money hasn't really made that much of a dent in that problem. The moratorium date is quickly approaching and I wonder how that's going to pan out.

And housing is already starting to simmer down just a bit. Maybe it's localized, but there are a lot of homes on the market right now. We just made an offer 10k below list and the seller took it without a counter. I was a bit surprised tbh. So we'll see how it goes.

Just a thought anyway.

 

[Turfie]

GSAT. Yesterday (in red) and today. Same thing happened Friday. Is a huge day trader doing this? Tanking minutes before close each of the past 3 days.

 

[St. Geezy]

GSAT. Yesterday (in red) and today. Same thing happened Friday. Is a huge day trader doing this? Tanking minutes before close each of the past 3 days.

That's a pretty narrow Y axis price range. Makes those dips look a lot worse than they are.

 

[Turfie]

Yep, exactly. Eliminates their ability to use the options chain to spoof positions as well.

There is no question that all these policies are putting the squeeze on these over-leveraged institutions. I think the powers that be realize that the longer this drags out, the higher their portion of the eventual bill is going to be, because The Citadel and company will be bankrupt well before all these synthetic positions they've created using margin are closed.

The more I think about all this. I think boom boom is gonna happen in the next two weeks.

I don’t think any of them will have the margin requirements that will be forced on them in the very near future.

After months the DTC-2021-005 is finally here. I think they wouldn’t have brought it back if the game wasn’t already over and all the big banks and hedge funds finished putting money off shore.

 

[superchuck500]

I don’t really know what this is that y’all are talking about with DTCC, but here it is:

https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf

 

[B4YOU]

I don't know. There are a lot of people way behind on rent payments, and all of the easy money hasn't really made that much of a dent in that problem. The moratorium date is quickly approaching and I wonder how that's going to pan out.

And housing is already starting to simmer down just a bit. Maybe it's localized, but there are a lot of homes on the market right now. We just made an offer 10k below list and the seller took it without a counter. I was a bit surprised tbh. So we'll see how it goes.

Just a thought anyway.

Congrats! What area you find a place? Our market is weird. DC and VA inside King St are crazy. But you cross the Anacostia, King St, or into MD and things get better.

There’s $45B in rental assistance being pushed out nationally. DC is offering to pay 12months of back rent and 3 months of future rent for people impacted by Covid. The big landlords will be fine. The rate drops and appreciation in this market made it so small landlords who held for several years could cash out refi and cover a mortgage for a year. I don’t think there’s going to be a glut of SFH housing come up. Apts with 1-2 beds are going to be offering deals to get bodies.

 

[DaveXA]

Congrats! What area you find a place? Our market is weird. DC and VA inside King St are crazy. But you cross the Anacostia, King St, or into MD and things get better.

There’s $45B in rental assistance being pushed out nationally. DC is offering to pay 12months of back rent and 3 months of future rent for people impacted by Covid. The big landlords will be fine. The rate drops and appreciation in this market made it so small landlords who held for several years could cash out refi and cover a mortgage for a year. I don’t think there’s going to be a glut of SFH housing come up. Apts with 1-2 beds are going to be offering deals to get bodies.

That all sounds about right. I didn't think about the subsidies, so that should help. Made an offer on a townhome on the Fairfax side of the Vienna metro. I've been on the Vienna side for the last 10 years. Renting for so long. Probably close to $250k in rent over 10 years. Would have liked to buy a lot sooner but didn't start working a decent job until 18 months ago.

Prices have always been crazy here. The new upper middle class homes are $1.5m plus. A lot of new homes being built are $1.7m plus. But that's life in Fairfax/Vienna.

Without giving too much away, I didn't make this offer on my own. Wouldn't have happened without an assist.

 

[St. Geezy]

Powell is supposed to speak tomorrow. Wonder if this will be the narrative for a potential market tank job.

 

[St. Geezy]

Here is a good cheat sheet for all the new rules put online over the past few months or are set to come online soon.

 

[St. Geezy]

It’s interesting but the chart isn’t necessarily demonstrative. Margin is a function of total asset value, so a raw number in billions isn’t as meaningful as margin/total. Lay the S&P over that chart and you can get a sense of whether they’re in sync. But it does look like the margin chart takes a higher trajectory at the end on the right (current) so the premise could still be true.

I guess the only counter to this is that the post-COVID bounce back looks a little too sharp. People/tutes taking advantage of the recovery plays and inflating them prematurely perhaps?

Looks like Michael Burry is getting the same sense as I am about post-COVID speculation creating an over-exaggerated market recovery...

 

[superchuck500]

Powell is supposed to speak tomorrow. Wonder if this will be the narrative for a potential market tank job.

I think this one of bigger FOMC meetings (quarterly review of data) - and the market always hangs on every word especially on the monetary policy stuff. It’s hard to know what the market is looking for right now, clearly talk of inflation or rate rises will be negatively received, but it seems like that fear has subsided a bit. There’s also the unusual labor market to talk about. It seems like this one will be an “eye of the beholder” thing - like many of them are.

 

[St. Geezy]

Powell is supposed to speak tomorrow. Wonder if this will be the narrative for a potential market tank job.

MSN

www.msn.com