The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

[bclemms]

I don't think today's sell off is purely covid related, it's just the excuse.

Lot of different risks and a lot of news today. China credit issues, inflation, Fed saying they are ready to increase rates to curb inflation and all this coming on the tail of a long and really hot rally. Reports that China is asking Didi to delist on the NYSE is also something that really doesn't sit well on Wall St. I think all the risks were piling up and it was just time for a correction and the covid news was just the catalyst. The markets have overlooked all kinds of covid news the past year. From some of the technical people I follow, they were expecting a correction and aren't worries as long as S&P holds 4550. Apparently that is the support level that will make or break the technical pattern longer term.

Glad I'm on the right side of today's moves but I'm still in the red from the big run the markets had over the last month.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Black Friday indeed.

 

[bclemms]

Just switched teams. Took my 13% on TZA and jumped on GUSH. Betting oil is oversold and OPEC uses the new variant and rising vivid cases to try and justify slowing production when it will really be about retaliation for US and other countries coordinating a reserve release.

 

[efil4stnias]

I'm not even looking because I know I got ganked today.

Yay Black Friday.

 

[Turfie]

Zombie stocks coming back. Was a hedge fund liquidated?

 

[AsaPW]

Zombie stocks coming back. Was a hedge fund liquidated?

If you’re in Canada, buy Goff. I’ve been watching it since 10 cents but I can’t buy it here yet. Sucks because I could’ve made a killin.

Another penny that I like is SGSI. Market cap is 12.5 mill but they have done that with just their last few deals recently. Seems really undervalued but what do I know. Other than that, I haven’t been messing with stocks much.

 

[Turfie]

It seems like there are some new proposals being worked on that would favor large institutions who made terribly bad decisions over-shorting stocks.

The sentiment in these rules is to prevent undue harm to the greater market.

This answers a few of my questions all along. Why doesn’t these hedges and big banks just close (not cover, but close) their short positions. They are fighting tooth and nail to live another day. It seems now they are just buying time until new rules get out in place to protect them.

 

[bclemms]

It seems like there are some new proposals being worked on that would favor large institutions who made terribly bad decisions over-shorting stocks.

The sentiment in these rules is to prevent undue harm to the greater market.

This answers a few of my questions all along. Why doesn’t these hedges and big banks just close (not cover, but close) their short positions. They are fighting tooth and nail to live another day. It seems now they are just buying time until new rules get out in place to protect them.

Why would they book the losses? They can leave those losses on the books for the rest of your life and not think twice.

Laws favoring big banks for making bad decisions. Yeah, talk about being totally blindsided. It's like, who could have seen that coming?

 

[bclemms]

Friday was like standing on the glass floor observatory at the Sears tower and seeing a crack. If momentum starts moving down and breaks key support on the SP it's going to get really ugly. So many retail traders that have never been punished for bying the dip or have never seen a bubble burst would lose so much, so fast and they would likely double down on those loses on the way down. Those hedge funds that have been getting their arses handed to them for years but managed to survive would make it all back in a matter of hours.

I've been the idiot that hasn't been making money the last year because of the downside risk.

I think Monday will be a nice rebound day but just a friendly reminder of what is going to happen at some point.

 

[Turfie]

Friday was like standing on the glass floor observatory at the Sears tower and seeing a crack. If momentum starts moving down and breaks key support on the SP it's going to get really ugly. So many retail traders that have never been punished for bying the dip or have never seen a bubble burst would lose so much, so fast and they would likely double down on those loses on the way down. Those hedge funds that have been getting their arses handed to them for years but managed to survive would make it all back in a matter of hours.

I've been the idiot that hasn't been making money the last year because of the downside risk.

I think Monday will be a nice rebound day but just a friendly reminder of what is going to happen at some point.

Do you think stocks with a higher percentage of institutional investors will shake out better overall then stocks that are largely made up of retail investors?

 

[Turfie]

This could be nothing. Or it could be a domino.

 

[bclemms]

Do you think stocks with a higher percentage of institutional investors will shake out better overall then stocks that are largely made up of retail investors?

If we see a bubble burst and crash with the current level of leverage, investment, debt and price evaluations? It'll be a massacre everywhere.

Again, I'm not being all doom and gloom. The market is really overvalued for numerous reasons. The amount of money that has come from the treasury in the last 23 years is more than came out in the previous 100 years inflation included. Low interest rates and easy money policy over that span has forced an extremely disproportionate amount of investment to move to equities or suffer guaranteed losses. The covid recovery story, a huge influx of retail investors, tons of momentum and now inflation putting more pressure on investment to generate a return is has created a wild situation. Covid recovery is going strong, all the bad news of the last 18 months has been ignored. Everyone piled on the don't fight the fed bandwagon and everyone is seeing these huge returns in tech, crypto and meme stocks. People are buying up $200 GME and it's somehow been normalized. It sure has made a lot of fat minnows but good lord it's turned into the world's biggest game of Jenga.

I've noticed a huge amount of Ai and bots being used to pump stocks and seeing the same type of analytics used combined with social media algorythms to really pump stocks and even moreso crypto. It's looks very similar to cambridge analytica/Facebook tag team in the 2016 election. It's really possible a couple big players are just waiting for the right moment to pull the cards. Wouldn't take much, just something like a couple big hedge funds, one big investment bank or one person like the prince of Saudi to move mega amounts of wealth from one side to another. Lots of fat minnows have been nibbling at the sharks for 18 months and forgot the shark bites back once in a while. It doesn't take this massive percentage share to make a market crash 20% in a day. $10M on some Ai tweeks on social media that slowly start favoring bullish stock views creating a buying frenzy. Ride the wave up, slowly draw down shares and add short positions. Wait for some some bad news and a little bit of fear. Once you reach a certain technical key have those pumping bots and influencers turn into bears, throw some misinformation in the mix and pay to have the ai flip to promoting bearish material and panic. Key support levels get wiped out, the trading algos and twitter stock movers all have the same stop points and it's been using against them. One minute you are having breakfast reading about $250k bitcoin by dinner $20T worth of market cap is gone. None of the above is particularly illegal, at least there are no agencies left with enough teeth to do anything about it.

If you think ivestment bankers, hedge fund managers and a world full of greedy bastages didn't look at all the PPE money and covid checks flying into the market and begin to think how to move that money into their accounts you're crazy. You don't think North Korea, Iran, China or Saudi can pull something like that off with ease then you haven't been paying attention.


With all that said, if the covid recovery can stay on track and be almost perfect. If tech, ai, green energy and are able to do what most are thinking is possible in the next decade. If wages continue to rise and inflation can get under control. If there isn't some other crisis, war, terrorist attack, energy crisis, asteroid, hyper-inflation, a complete supply chain collapse, super volcano or a major meltdown in some financial market then stocks may not only be reasonable but on the cheap side.

Again, not being a pessimist. I'm actually 90% long right now on the small percentage I have invested but when volatility spikes I jump to swing trading. I think the recovery is humming along and looking back at what the markets managed to manuever around the last 18 months is nothing short of a miracle. I do think it's overdue for a correction but if I was guessing it would be something like a crash, a quick test of some new found key support level then it'll be off to the races again but even that hasn't happened. It's just :rocketemojis: :moonemojis: :apeemojis: :diamondemoji: :handsemoji:.

 

[Turfie]

If we see a bubble burst and crash with the current level of leverage, investment, debt and price evaluations? It'll be a massacre everywhere.

Again, I'm not being all doom and gloom. The market is really overvalued for numerous reasons. The amount of money that has come from the treasury in the last 23 years is more than came out in the previous 100 years inflation included. Low interest rates and easy money policy over that span has forced an extremely disproportionate amount of investment to move to equities or suffer guaranteed losses. The covid recovery story, a huge influx of retail investors, tons of momentum and now inflation putting more pressure on investment to generate a return is has created a wild situation. Covid recovery is going strong, all the bad news of the last 18 months has been ignored. Everyone piled on the don't fight the fed bandwagon and everyone is seeing these huge returns in tech, crypto and meme stocks. People are buying up $200 GME and it's somehow been normalized. It sure has made a lot of fat minnows but good lord it's turned into the world's biggest game of Jenga.

I've noticed a huge amount of Ai and bots being used to pump stocks and seeing the same type of analytics used combined with social media algorythms to really pump stocks and even moreso crypto. It's looks very similar to cambridge analytica/Facebook tag team in the 2016 election. It's really possible a couple big players are just waiting for the right moment to pull the cards. Wouldn't take much, just something like a couple big hedge funds, one big investment bank or one person like the prince of Saudi to move mega amounts of wealth from one side to another. Lots of fat minnows have been nibbling at the sharks for 18 months and forgot the shark bites back once in a while. It doesn't take this massive percentage share to make a market crash 20% in a day. $10M on some Ai tweeks on social media that slowly start favoring bullish stock views creating a buying frenzy. Ride the wave up, slowly draw down shares and add short positions. Wait for some some bad news and a little bit of fear. Once you reach a certain technical key have those pumping bots and influencers turn into bears, throw some misinformation in the mix and pay to have the ai flip to promoting bearish material and panic. Key support levels get wiped out, the trading algos and twitter stock movers all have the same stop points and it's been using against them. One minute you are having breakfast reading about $250k bitcoin by dinner $20T worth of market cap is gone. None of the above is particularly illegal, at least there are no agencies left with enough teeth to do anything about it.

If you think ivestment bankers, hedge fund managers and a world full of greedy bastages didn't look at all the PPE money and covid checks flying into the market and begin to think how to move that money into their accounts you're crazy. You don't think North Korea, Iran, China or Saudi can pull something like that off with ease then you haven't been paying attention.


With all that said, if the covid recovery can stay on track and be almost perfect. If tech, ai, green energy and are able to do what most are thinking is possible in the next decade. If wages continue to rise and inflation can get under control. If there isn't some other crisis, war, terrorist attack, energy crisis, asteroid, hyper-inflation, a complete supply chain collapse, super volcano or a major meltdown in some financial market then stocks may not only be reasonable but on the cheap side.

Again, not being a pessimist. I'm actually 90% long right now on the small percentage I have invested but when volatility spikes I jump to swing trading. I think the recovery is humming along and looking back at what the markets managed to manuever around the last 18 months is nothing short of a miracle. I do think it's overdue for a correction but if I was guessing it would be something like a crash, a quick test of some new found key support level then it'll be off to the races again but even that hasn't happened. It's just :rocketemojis: :moonemojis: :apeemojis: :diamondemoji: :handsemoji:.

Fantastic write up. I’m prepared to go down with the GME ship. My play money portfolio is 100% GME now. This is all with money I can lose. I buy GME when it’s 150, 200, or 250. I possibly have a weird addiction.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Do you think stocks with a higher percentage of institutional investors will shake out better overall then stocks that are largely made up of retail investors?

I'd think so, but it's going to depend on the sector. Travel is going to take it on the chin short term, unless Omicron really is bad.

I'd look at it this way. The public is more likely to panic. The big investors take profits here and there. They may have done that Friday, with everyone else panicking. But some stocks and funds were just fine.

I lost about $20k yesterday. Most of it was in my company stock (Like $18k). That's pure travel fear. So, the institutional investors quickly booked their profits.

 

[Saint_Ward]

If we see a bubble burst and crash with the current level of leverage, investment, debt and price evaluations? It'll be a massacre everywhere.

Again, I'm not being all doom and gloom. The market is really overvalued for numerous reasons. The amount of money that has come from the treasury in the last 23 years is more than came out in the previous 100 years inflation included. Low interest rates and easy money policy over that span has forced an extremely disproportionate amount of investment to move to equities or suffer guaranteed losses. The covid recovery story, a huge influx of retail investors, tons of momentum and now inflation putting more pressure on investment to generate a return is has created a wild situation. Covid recovery is going strong, all the bad news of the last 18 months has been ignored. Everyone piled on the don't fight the fed bandwagon and everyone is seeing these huge returns in tech, crypto and meme stocks. People are buying up $200 GME and it's somehow been normalized. It sure has made a lot of fat minnows but good lord it's turned into the world's biggest game of Jenga.

I've noticed a huge amount of Ai and bots being used to pump stocks and seeing the same type of analytics used combined with social media algorythms to really pump stocks and even moreso crypto. It's looks very similar to cambridge analytica/Facebook tag team in the 2016 election. It's really possible a couple big players are just waiting for the right moment to pull the cards. Wouldn't take much, just something like a couple big hedge funds, one big investment bank or one person like the prince of Saudi to move mega amounts of wealth from one side to another. Lots of fat minnows have been nibbling at the sharks for 18 months and forgot the shark bites back once in a while. It doesn't take this massive percentage share to make a market crash 20% in a day. $10M on some Ai tweeks on social media that slowly start favoring bullish stock views creating a buying frenzy. Ride the wave up, slowly draw down shares and add short positions. Wait for some some bad news and a little bit of fear. Once you reach a certain technical key have those pumping bots and influencers turn into bears, throw some misinformation in the mix and pay to have the ai flip to promoting bearish material and panic. Key support levels get wiped out, the trading algos and twitter stock movers all have the same stop points and it's been using against them. One minute you are having breakfast reading about $250k bitcoin by dinner $20T worth of market cap is gone. None of the above is particularly illegal, at least there are no agencies left with enough teeth to do anything about it.

If you think ivestment bankers, hedge fund managers and a world full of greedy bastages didn't look at all the PPE money and covid checks flying into the market and begin to think how to move that money into their accounts you're crazy. You don't think North Korea, Iran, China or Saudi can pull something like that off with ease then you haven't been paying attention.


With all that said, if the covid recovery can stay on track and be almost perfect. If tech, ai, green energy and are able to do what most are thinking is possible in the next decade. If wages continue to rise and inflation can get under control. If there isn't some other crisis, war, terrorist attack, energy crisis, asteroid, hyper-inflation, a complete supply chain collapse, super volcano or a major meltdown in some financial market then stocks may not only be reasonable but on the cheap side.

Again, not being a pessimist. I'm actually 90% long right now on the small percentage I have invested but when volatility spikes I jump to swing trading. I think the recovery is humming along and looking back at what the markets managed to manuever around the last 18 months is nothing short of a miracle. I do think it's overdue for a correction but if I was guessing it would be something like a crash, a quick test of some new found key support level then it'll be off to the races again but even that hasn't happened. It's just :rocketemojis: :moonemojis: :apeemojis: :diamondemoji: :handsemoji:.

Read articles from Simply Wallstreet or simply wallet. Whatever it is on the iPhone investment app. They're terrible articles that may not be full on Bot, but clearly written by someone who doesn't always know what they're writing about.