The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

[Turfie]

Was someone liquidated today?

 

[DaveXA]

Was someone liquidated today?

Nah, at least with Peloton it was reported they are scaling back production due to waning demand. Which isn't terribly surprising. They were hot during the pandemic with people ordering them all over due to the increased number working at home. That obviously was temporary and we're now at the end of that spurt.

 

[Turfie]

Nah, at least with Peloton it was reported they are scaling back production due to waning demand. Which isn't terribly surprising. They were hot during the pandemic with people ordering them all over due to the increased number working at home. That obviously was temporary and we're now at the end of that spurt.

I just read that too. Amazon under 3K after hours. NASDAQ hasn’t been this low since June. Crazy.

 

[bclemms]

Pandemic plays are toast. Netflix, Pelaton, etc got hammered today.

So if people aren’t watching TeeVee what are they doing?

Travel boom is about to go so far past crazy. Two concerns are oil prices and if economy struggles to pick back up.

Airlines are beat up due to Omicron, 5G news, rising oil, overall market headwinds and labor costs but payback travel about to hit the skies and nothing will matter. From spring break until the holidays next year it’s going to be nuts. Business travel, conventions, international travel, it’s all going to come roaring back in the next 3-5 weeks.

I do think there will be some suffering still this month. Flights are noticeably less crowded, as in 95% full instead of overbooked. Flight cancellations due to staff shortages are about to go away and everything will be humming.

 

[DaveXA]

I'm needing to buy a new or used car, but the prices are still stupid and they haven't really come back to earth yet.

 

[Turfie]

My first GME share under $100 just got filled in after hours. This ones going on a wall.

 

[bclemms]

My first GME share under $100 just got filled in after hours. This ones going on a wall.

I can’t imagine hedge funds covering at this stage of the game until it hits single digits but when that happens it could have a huge bounce.

 

[bclemms]

I'm needing to buy a new or used car, but the prices are still stupid and they haven't really come back to earth yet.

I need to sell my truck and wife’s car before they do come crashing down. Judging by recent availability of rentals I think it’s about to come crashing down.

 

[Turfie]

I can’t imagine hedge funds covering at this stage of the game until it hits single digits but when that happens it could have a huge bounce.

If it hits single digits I hope their CEO averages down at least. His cost basis on his unvested shares is $235.

 

[bclemms]

If it hits single digits I hope their CEO averages down at least. His cost basis on his unvested shares is $235.

I doubt it. From the beginning I thought the squeeze was awesome but this idea of making a squeeze last forever, a lot of propaganda and social media repeater bots combined with everything being a conspiracy (there absolutely was some dirty stuff going on) but it sure looked like the retailers won but the hedge funds infiltrated, sent out mix messages, split the play over dozens of other stocks while loading up on short positions for easiest play in history.

There will be movies about this and it will be amazing but it’s going to be sad too.

 

[Turfie]

I doubt it. From the beginning I thought the squeeze was awesome but this idea of making a squeeze last forever, a lot of propaganda and social media repeater bots combined with everything being a conspiracy (there absolutely was some dirty stuff going on) but it sure looked like the retailers won but the hedge funds infiltrated, sent out mix messages, split the play over dozens of other stocks while loading up on short positions for easiest play in history.

There will be movies about this and it will be amazing but it’s going to be sad too.

That definitely is a possible outcome. Things could get really ugly. I’ve only put in what I could use. Other retail investors on loans and margins could be the easy ones to liquidate.

I hope the movie ends with an amazing transformation story of a dying brick and mortar company. Built in part by Ryan Cohen and DFV. And selfishly I want to benefit big time as an investor.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Market started running at open but it's fading fast. If it can't hold a rally even for a day it may be a while before it goes green. If airlines keep getting beat up I'm going to make an even bigger play on them.

Dang, I got too busy at work to see that. I bought some more AAL at around 17.33. Either way, I brought down my average price to something I think they'll eventually beat.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Pandemic plays are toast. Netflix, Pelaton, etc got hammered today.

So if people aren’t watching TeeVee what are they doing?

Travel boom is about to go so far past crazy. Two concerns are oil prices and if economy struggles to pick back up.

Airlines are beat up due to Omicron, 5G news, rising oil, overall market headwinds and labor costs but payback travel about to hit the skies and nothing will matter. From spring break until the holidays next year it’s going to be nuts. Business travel, conventions, international travel, it’s all going to come roaring back in the next 3-5 weeks.

I do think there will be some suffering still this month. Flights are noticeably less crowded, as in 95% full instead of overbooked. Flight cancellations due to staff shortages are about to go away and everything will be humming.

It's kind of crazy. If World O Meters is correct, we have about 25 million active cases.... just adding up the cases since Dec 21, so the last 30 days, we have had about 17 million covid 19 cases. and about 7-8 Million are in the last 10 days. That's a lot of people not working, not traveling, spouses maybe too.. or other family members. Lots of people temporarily on the economic sideline.

 

[bclemms]

It's kind of crazy. If World O Meters is correct, we have about 25 million active cases.... just adding up the cases since Dec 21, so the last 30 days, we have had about 17 million covid 19 cases. and about 7-8 Million are in the last 10 days. That's a lot of people not working, not traveling, spouses maybe too.. or other family members. Lots of people temporarily on the economic sideline.

I agree but it is really easy to see where this is headed. The fall will be as fast as the spike and the major economies (less China) will have this large immunity period with low cases. Plus we are watching a rapid evolutionary jump towards an endemic stage where Covid is becoming the common cold and quite frankly I don’t think Omicron is nearly as far away from the common cold as most think.

3-5 weeks and Omicron is burned out and the whole country is sitting at peak immunity. When that happens you can bet your arse Netflix and chill isn’t going to be on the menu.

Im much more concerned with the Fed rates, inflation and volatility creating a hostile environment at a time the retail trade can’t afford to buy any more dips.

I’m much more concerned about inflation outstripping wage growth. I’m much more concerned about overvalued stocks finally being deflated by a shift in monetary policy.

I’m much more concerned with geopolitical tensions and the rising price of oil.

I’m much more concerned with job data underperforming and economic growth slowing at a time where the only solution the market has built is an explosion.

I’m much more concerned with a heavy rotation out of tech creating a cascade effect that ends in panic.

The travel play is a really good one but it could still lose money because of overall market headwinds.

 

[bclemms]

Woke up this morning with a feeling of dread about the market over the next two days. About to do some hedge work.