The Investment Thread (14 Viewers)

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nolaswede said:
Care to make a friendly wager?
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You don't even need to make a wager with him. If you have confidence the market will rise in the coming months then buy stock or long call options on the indexes and ETFs on those indexes.
 
I am wondering how solvent some of these crypto wallets and crypto exchanges are(yes I know poor grammar).

Could we see a virtual run on them with so many people dumping their crypto and trying to get out and get the cash deposited into their banks? Binance has also halted any kind of selling buying or transfers.
 
SaintInBucLand said:
I am wondering how solvent some of these crypto wallets and crypto exchanges are(yes I know poor grammar).

Could we see a virtual run on them with so many people dumping their crypto and trying to get out and get the cash deposited into their banks? Binance has also halted any kind of selling buying or transfers.
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I think that's certainly possible. I'm still not really sure how you can do proper valuations on crypto currencies. They seem to me to be largely speculation driven with little intrinsic value, surviving on hope and perception. So, for some of these cryptos with low adoption rate, it seems not only possible, but likely that they will collapse entirely.
 
Out of all the crypto I like etherium the best. It seems that may be the currency that runs all the limited stuff I follow (GameStop marketplace, Loopring, and IMX).
 
UncleTrvlingJim said:
I find this line of thinking odd because the deficit increases the fastest when you have Republicans in the White House and Congress. That's been the case since the 1980's. The deficit has decreased under the current administration (not because of any particular policy really, and it would have decreased faster without the infrastructure bill, but the point being that the last administration, had a far more "liberal" fiscal policy than the current one).

As far as finances goes... the stock market is starting to approach rational valuations. Typically, the mean PE ratio for the S&P 500 is around 15... it's currently at 19. It had hit as high as the upper 30's during the pandemic. It might go down a bit more, but it's approaching a decent level of support right now.
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I'm no t sure the classic PE ratio is as useful for the S&P500, unless it's been the last few years. PE ratios haven't really explained tech, and their growth compounding is insane. Tech makes up like 8 of the top 12 stocks (2 are Alphabet).

AMZN is getting beat down a bit, and is looking more attractive.

The airlines are getting hammered and they had good news. I think people are freaking out and just pulling their money. It will make a good time to buy a few premium companies.
 
All the sheet coins are going under. Crypto is going to be a good investment once it gets cut in half again and all the bogus coins with no real function are washed out the market.
 
Saint_Ward said:
I'm no t sure the classic PE ratio is as useful for the S&P500, unless it's been the last few years. PE ratios haven't really explained tech, and their growth compounding is insane. Tech makes up like 8 of the top 12 stocks (2 are Alphabet).

AMZN is getting beat down a bit, and is looking more attractive.

The airlines are getting hammered and they had good news. I think people are freaking out and just pulling their money. It will make a good time to buy a few premium companies.
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It's not done dropping. We have QT starting this week as well as inflation numbers on cost of production goods, then it's looking more likely that we get 75 basis points instead of 50.
 
Saint_Ward said:
I'm no t sure the classic PE ratio is as useful for the S&P500, unless it's been the last few years. PE ratios haven't really explained tech, and their growth compounding is insane. Tech makes up like 8 of the top 12 stocks (2 are Alphabet).

AMZN is getting beat down a bit, and is looking more attractive.

The airlines are getting hammered and they had good news. I think people are freaking out and just pulling their money. It will make a good time to buy a few premium companies.
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Major support levels broke this morning so yeah. Also means we are probably going quite a bit lower.

The classic PE ratio doesn't look useful when in a bubble and it is being ignored. It becomes very useful when that bubble pops. It's why the highest PE ratio stocks are taking the biggest dive over the last 6-7 months.
 
Saint_Ward said:
I'm no t sure the classic PE ratio is as useful for the S&P500, unless it's been the last few years. PE ratios haven't really explained tech, and their growth compounding is insane. Tech makes up like 8 of the top 12 stocks (2 are Alphabet).

AMZN is getting beat down a bit, and is looking more attractive.

The airlines are getting hammered and they had good news. I think people are freaking out and just pulling their money. It will make a good time to buy a few premium companies.
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I fundamentally disagree with the notion that PE rations mean less for tech stocks. Yes, you have to take into account their growth potential, but at the end of the day, a company's value is driven by their profit margins and ability to grow those margins.

So, while a PE ratio of 15 might be low for a tech stock, one with a PE ratio of 60 is probably way out of whack. It assumes exponential growth for many years, which is unrealistic given that major economic shocks tend to happen every 7-10 years.
 
The G
UncleTrvlingJim said:
I fundamentally disagree with the notion that PE rations mean less for tech stocks. Yes, you have to take into account their growth potential, but at the end of the day, a company's value is driven by their profit margins and ability to grow those margins.

So, while a PE ratio of 15 might be low for a tech stock, one with a PE ratio of 60 is probably way out of whack. It assumes exponential growth for many years, which is unrealistic given that major economic shocks tend to happen every 7-10 years.
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The Great Reset 2022.

It was needed.

Government can kick the can, markets cannot.
 

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