The Investment Thread (19 Viewers)

[Turfie]

I’ve added a smidge to my bbby long on the mini intraday dip

 

[bclemms]

I waited a bit longer and ended up selling my calls right before lunch. Seemed to be the most resistance on SPY at 375-376. And now I just got shorts on spy as it just can't seem to break that 376 level.

Still may leg up but Id rather be early than late. Momentum down could be incredible if 6 month trend continues. If I had to guess itll push against support the rest of the day and after hours will get ugly. Just my best guess, coupd do anything. So many are playing this trend it is setting up for a bear trap and break out at some point.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Why Apple Stock Surged on Tuesday | The Motley Fool

iPhone shipments appear to be on the rebound.

www.fool.com

UBS analyst David Vogt estimates that shipments of iPhones in China have rebounded in May, increasing 16% from April levels, according to The Fly. This suggests that the COVID-19-related lockdowns and resulting supply chain problems may finally be abating.

This follows reports late last month that government officials in several of China's largest cities had eased pandemic-related restrictions, resulting in steady improvement in the country's manufacturing capability.

Vogt went further, estimating that overall shipments of the iPhone have increased by 13% year over year and an eye-popping 155% month over month, further evidence of recovery in both iPhone production and delivery. UBS maintained its estimate for iPhone shipments during the second calendar quarter at 42 million, but it said that updated data "increases our confidence that our June forecast could be conservative."

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Why Apple Stock Surged on Tuesday | The Motley Fool

iPhone shipments appear to be on the rebound.

www.fool.com

That could also spell over supply of inventory too. With inflation the way it is and food and gas prices as high as they are. Will people be wanting to shell out $1000+ for a new iphone or ipad.

 

[Turfie]

Just having fun

 

[Turfie]

I laughed

 

[Turfie]

Lots expecting a pull back. HSI dumped last night. UK and Canadian inflation reports that were published recently were bad. And the markets sprint out of the gate.

 

[bclemms]

So many are playing this trend it is setting up for a bear trap and break out at some point.

That point may be today. Still have a couple levels of resistance to get to but this mornings rally from deep red in futures markets is something we haven't really seen in a while. Getting my arse handed to me today. Only have AAL calls, everything else is short positions.

 

[Turfie]

That point may be today. Still have a couple levels of resistance to get to but this mornings rally from deep red in futures markets is something we haven't really seen in a while. Getting my arse handed to me today. Only have AAL calls, everything else is short positions.

And I have seen a rally like this turn blood red by close.

 

[bclemms]

The demand destruction in oil just got wiped out by suspension of the Federal gas tax. Such a stupid plan. It's the same story all over again. Federal Government suspending tax, increasing spending for a short term solution to a long term problem. This in turn will increase demand even farther and drive prices artificially higher. A tax that pays for infrastructure is being suspended at a time when our country's infrastructure needs so much repair. Purely politically motivated move to answer to the dumb people that do not understand basic supply and demand economics.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

The demand destruction in oil just got wiped out by suspension of the Federal gas tax. Such a stupid plan. It's the same story all over again. Federal Government suspending tax, increasing spending for a short term solution to a long term problem. This in turn will increase demand even farther and drive prices artificially higher. A tax that pays for infrastructure is being suspended at a time when our country's infrastructure needs so much repair. Purely politically motivated move to answer to the dumb people that do not understand basic supply and demand economics.

well, i think the gas tax is something like 18 cents a gallon... I'm not sure that's going to make a big impact on demand for gas when it's around $5. It will make some difference, but I don't think much. But it is a dumb idea.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

The demand destruction in oil just got wiped out by suspension of the Federal gas tax. Such a stupid plan. It's the same story all over again. Federal Government suspending tax, increasing spending for a short term solution to a long term problem. This in turn will increase demand even farther and drive prices artificially higher. A tax that pays for infrastructure is being suspended at a time when our country's infrastructure needs so much repair. Purely politically motivated move to answer to the dumb people that do not understand basic supply and demand economics.

Yeah it's definitely two fold stupid. Infrastructure is one aspect that can keep an economy churning even when there is a slow down or recession. But as you said, now we are going to cut the funding in the form of a ridiculous tax relief that will only drive demand higher for gas and end up just making the price increase.

This is why I have no confidence in those making decisions. I feel like that guy toward the end of the Big Short.. Short everything that guy touches.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Short of the US government funding the construction of new Refineries, I'm not sure what the way out of this is.

.

DENTON CINQUEGRANA: When you're losing money on doing it, what do you do? You stop making it. And that's when you shut down refineries, which we have seen happen.

CRONIN: The second thing that hurt refiners was actual physical damage. Hurricane Ida took out a refinery in Louisiana. A fire burned down another in Philadelphia. But the third reason is really the most crucial. The country is in the midst of an energy transition championed by none other than the president himself.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

BIDEN: I guarantee you, I guarantee you, we're going to end fossil fuel.

CINQUEGRANA: The Biden administration has made it clear that fossil fuels, you do not have a place on the table going forward.

CRONIN: So Cinquegrana says some refiners have repurposed their facilities. In fact, they're making renewables like biofuel instead of gasoline. As a result, the U.S. has lost a million barrels of refining capacity over the last few years. And Cinquegrana doesn't think the U.S. will ever refine as much oil as it once did.

CINQUEGRANA: I think the refining executives say, well, looks like the writing's on the wall.

CRONIN: The irony is that as refiners are shifting away from fossil fuels, they're making a lot of money. President Biden says it's not acceptable for refiners to be profiting so much when Americans are getting squeezed at the pump. In his letter to refiners this week, he called for the companies to ramp up their refining capacity. But that's unlikely to happen. For one thing, refineries are already running at full capacity. As for the ones idled during the pandemic, that's not a quick fix either. Not only would it take months to bring them back online, it's also a financial investment unlikely to pay off.

CINQUEGRANA: You're talking about a lot of money to get these refineries that are idled up and running. And when I'm being told, five years from now, we hope you don't exist, why should I help you?

CRONIN: And as for investing in new refineries, that's pretty much a nonstarter. Here's Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.

MIKE WIRTH: My personal view is there will never be another refinery built in the United States.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Biden blasts oil refiners for record profits on pain at the pump

U.S. President Joe Biden, under pressure over sky-high gasoline prices, on Wednesday demanded oil refining companies explain why they are not putting more fuel on the market as they reap windfall profits.

www.reuters.com

This has some more info.

There was a short update tested before this link that said...

June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. refiners will try to convince the Biden administration not to ban exports of U.S. fuel to combat record gas prices during a meeting scheduled for Thursday, according to sources familiar with the plans.

The White House has called an emergency meeting with top U.S. refiners to discuss ways to bring down record gas prices that have driven inflation to 40-year highs. The meeting follows weeks of mudslinging between U.S. President Joe Biden and oil companies over who is to blame for the price spikes, which are affecting consumers worldwide.

Looks like those CEO's are going to the White House.

 

[bclemms]

Short of the US government funding the construction of new Refineries, I'm not sure what the way out of this is.

.

Here are the three choices.
1. Nationalize Oil
2. Pay whatever price deemed necessary
3. Transition to Renewables.

#1 and #2 have many long term, horrific consequences.


Every other argument is simply a talking point that has zero Legitimate value or reasoning.