The Investment Thread (4 Viewers)

[El Caliente]

Your post reminds me of this.

That was my favorite part of the movie.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Your post reminds me of this.

Feels like it too... I should have listened to my gut instead of being duped by Tom Lee, he has been touting the last few months how the IWM is going to be up 40-60% and how the Russell 2k is going to be 3000 by the end of the year. Now do I DCA more into TNA or take my losses.. I did have a nice hedge a couple days ago on SQQQ calls, so that saved me from about 80% of my losses on TNA.

 

[B4YOU]

RKT up 11.5%. Mortgage rates are 1% below highs and a Sept cut will make refi's really attractive. I could see it run to the 20s.

 

[bclemms]

Today's reaction to the job report may be the first time I've seen a rational reaction to the stock market in a really long time.

That same market is up double digit percentage points in the expectation that inflation would finally be slowing and unemployment creeping up bringing the expectation of rate cuts. That was the most irrational reaction I've seen. Yay, the economy is about to start struggling, buy, buy, buy.

Not sure what it means. I don't think the economy is in trouble outside of some heavy geopolitical risks. Given the election cycle, the R's are doing everything they can to get the economy to spoil, the D's will do everything they can to prop it up. So I'm guessing it just bring volatility and not much direction. The fed is in a really good position right now, if things go down faster than they want they have a ton of room to cut. Markets are still sitting near all time highs. Spending hasn't slowed enough to make much difference. Debt is a bit of a concern but it's Merica and a debt bomb is always a day away from exploding. Valuations are by far my biggest concern. The market has already priced in a soft landing, anything but could get rocky for a minute.

My cash is still paying 6%. Easy decision for me.

 

[bclemms]

Feels like it too... I should have listened to my gut instead of being duped by Tom Lee, he has been touting the last few months how the IWM is going to be up 40-60% and how the Russell 2k is going to be 3000 by the end of the year. Now do I DCA more into TNA or take my losses.. I did have a nice hedge a couple days ago on SQQQ calls, so that saved me from about 80% of my losses on TNA.

TNA and TZA are some of my go to ETF's to swing. I know today had to hurt. Will probably get a rebound on Monday but it'll probably be one of those 50% bounce rallies that fades into the close and spells more trouble ahead. Glad you bought some insurance, I always do as well. Those cheap longshot options to counter a 3x volatile ETF is a must.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Yeah, AMZN, GOOG, and HEI... blood bath.

 

[bclemms]

Asia was the real bloodbath and futures are down 1.5-3% in US.

A few more days of 2-3% losses and fed is going to be quick to pop in.

 

[efil4stnias]

Asia was the real bloodbath and futures are down 1.5-3% in US.

A few more days of 2-3% losses and fed is going to be quick to pop in.

Saw that trending earlier Nikkei took a beating.
Now NASDAQ showing red 411. Which will open around red 500 if holds.(I'm sure it will climb as people start to freak out).

 

[efil4stnias]

Welp it was a good run these last 8 mo...wiping it out today.

This is going to be ugly until cooler heads prevail.

 

[B4YOU]

NASDAQ set to open down 6%

 

[efil4stnias]

NASDAQ set to open down 6%

On the flip side, I'm trying to figure out what to buy...so much will be on discount here shortly.

 

[Cage1]

I just checked in on my 401k balance and it was down a chunk, but I thought not TOO bad. Then I realized it hadn't even caught up to today yet.

 

[efil4stnias]

I just checked in on my 401k balance and it was down a chunk, but I thought not TOO bad. Then I realized it hadn't even caught up to today yet.

yeah man....those funds/etfs wont show til after close

thats where im at too lol

FWIW, opened not nearly as large down as 1 hr ago was showing. So hope that many are using as a buying opportunity, which would stem the negative tide.

but Wall St is spooked and ANY little thing could create another run.

 

[DaveXA]

yeah man....those funds/etfs wont show til after close

thats where im at too lol

FWIW, opened not nearly as large down as 1 hr ago was showing. So hope that many are using as a buying opportunity, which would stem the negative tide.

but Wall St is spooked and ANY little thing could create another run.

Honestly, I think it's been due for a correction for a while now. I'm pretty sure a lot of this is purely profit taking. Question is how big is the haircut?

 

[efil4stnias]

off phone w/ FA

sooooooo- apparently domestic Hedge Funds and large institutions were borrowing MASSIVE $$$ from Japan banks- Japan rates were darn near ZERO for long time.

Well Japan hiked rates which caused that $$$ to go from ZERO % to around 7-8% - so all the Hedge/Institutions are now unwinding positions due to the interest rate hike in Japan and the cost of that borrowed $$$$.

Damn hedge funds. Always looking for a way to maximize profits without regard for overall picture. Did they not think a rate hike was coming?

And this on heels of employment numbers last week not rosy ( said that usually points to a recession coming - doesnt think thats the case - but others do ) and FED not moving on rate hike in July.

so here we are.