The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

Wow, I can't even load my fidelity app. It's just spinning.

 

[bclemms]

Honestly, I think it's been due for a correction for a while now. I'm pretty sure a lot of this is purely profit taking. Question is how big is the haircut?

Unemployment up, prices and PE ratios near all time highs, election year, ton of geopolitical risj, could get a big trimming. I’d be more concerned if the Fed didn’t have a loaded gun.

 

[DaveXA]

off phone w/ FA

sooooooo- apparently domestic Hedge Funds and large institutions were borrowing MASSIVE $$$ from Japan banks- Japan rates were darn near ZERO for long time.

Well Japan hiked rates which caused that $$$ to go from ZERO % to around 7-8% - so all the Hedge/Institutions are now unwinding positions due to the interest rate hike in Japan and the cost of that borrowed $$$$.

Damn hedge funds. Always looking for a way to maximize profits without regard for overall picture. Did they not think a rate hike was coming?

And this on heels of employment numbers last week not rosy ( said that usually points to a recession coming - doesnt think thats the case - but others do ) and FED not moving on rate hike in July.

so here we are.

Oh yeah, that would definitely cause big issues. Good to know.

 

[Saint_Ward]

off phone w/ FA

sooooooo- apparently domestic Hedge Funds and large institutions were borrowing MASSIVE $$$ from Japan banks- Japan rates were darn near ZERO for long time.

Well Japan hiked rates which caused that $$$ to go from ZERO % to around 7-8% - so all the Hedge/Institutions are now unwinding positions due to the interest rate hike in Japan and the cost of that borrowed $$$$.

Damn hedge funds. Always looking for a way to maximize profits without regard for overall picture. Did they not think a rate hike was coming?

And this on heels of employment numbers last week not rosy ( said that usually points to a recession coming - doesnt think thats the case - but others do ) and FED not moving on rate hike in July.

so here we are.

Consistent with what I read here. Guess it was a surprise hike.

The stock market selloff is about more than weak economic data

The latest leg of the sell-off accelerated overnight as Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped more than 12% in its biggest-ever daily loss after a surprise interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Saint_Ward]

Looking at the YTD performance helped me breath easier. Just a blip.

 

[efil4stnias]

Consistent with what I read here. Guess it was a surprise hike.

The stock market selloff is about more than weak economic data

The latest leg of the sell-off accelerated overnight as Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped more than 12% in its biggest-ever daily loss after a surprise interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan.

finance.yahoo.com

nothing is a "surprise" in the market- they were always waiting for the shoe to drop and exit en masse, leaving a bloody trail behind them

they dont unwind slowly over time...they want to maximize profit.

And while it is certainly more than that, ( jobs, war looming etc ) this was definite catalyst for a "shock" reaction vs a slow draw-down allowing folks to make rational decisions instead of snap decisions.

and social media can and will create a "feeding frenzy" effect too.

 

[B4YOU]

off phone w/ FA

sooooooo- apparently domestic Hedge Funds and large institutions were borrowing MASSIVE $$$ from Japan banks- Japan rates were darn near ZERO for long time.

Well Japan hiked rates which caused that $$$ to go from ZERO % to around 7-8% - so all the Hedge/Institutions are now unwinding positions due to the interest rate hike in Japan and the cost of that borrowed $$$$.

Damn hedge funds. Always looking for a way to maximize profits without regard for overall picture. Did they not think a rate hike was coming?

And this on heels of employment numbers last week not rosy ( said that usually points to a recession coming - doesnt think thats the case - but others do ) and FED not moving on rate hike in July.

so here we are.

I've seen a reddit post or two of this as the explanation. Basically, they are stacking stock losses on top of exchange rate losses with rising interest rates.

 

[efil4stnias]

I've seen a reddit post or two of this as the explanation. Basically, they are stacking stock losses on top of exchange rate losses with rising interest rates.

yeah and exchange rate lol- we didnt even talk about that aspect.

So not only interest rate, but the cascading effect of that means exchange rate too - so its not 7-8% but more like 11-12%

idiots.

 

[B4YOU]

Wow, I can't even load my fidelity app. It's just spinning.

Vanguard also down.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Big morning for me, I had 22 SQQQ calls that I bought for 12 cents each on Friday, and sold for $1.02 this morning, but even better were the 5 puts on ARM for $110

Long term port is crying this morning though. Trying to decide what I want to DCA into this week.

 

[B4YOU]

yeah and exchange rate lol- we didnt even talk about that aspect.

So not only interest rate, but the cascading effect of that means exchange rate too - so its not 7-8% but more like 11-12%

idiots.

Yeah. That's 12.25% exchange rate change in 1mo with 7% of that happening over the last week. So maybe a bunch of hedge bros did some short term borrowing and took a bunch of loses. Maybe their losses triggered a margin call where they might be down 15% from the market but another 7-10% from the exchange rate flipping so suddenly.

 

[Devildog]

I tried logging in to my Merrill Lynch app and it's not loading.

 

[Saint_Ward]

We shall see if this was a smart move or stupid.

I only had a little free cash, so I bought some more Apple while it's down.

I noticed KO has stayed positive during all of this market drama, so I decided to take some profits. Sold off like 1/6th of my holdings.

HEI has mostly rebounded from yesterday, and they are up a lot for the year. Decided to do one of my rare sales to take some profits and I'll wait to see if they dip significantly and possibly buy back in. Sold off about 5% of my holdings for the regular and class A stock.

I'm holding on to everything else to ride the wave.

 

[Saint_Ward]

The plan is to see if tech gets further depressed, then buy more. Or, just keep some cash on the sidelines to see what's up.

I probably should load more into rolling monthly CDs, which are paying around 5.1% interest.

 

[B4YOU]

The plan is to see if tech gets further depressed, then buy more. Or, just keep some cash on the sidelines to see what's up.

I probably should load more into rolling monthly CDs, which are paying around 5.1% interest.

VMFXX settlement account pays 5.28% with .11% expense and 5.41% compounded. Nice to have cash liquid for stock or big ticket purchases while earning interest.