***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (2 Viewers)

[buzd]

Buzd has always been a troublemaker and a Party Lamp.

Perhaps, but I don’t live in the Midwest or Plains states.

 

[St. Widge]

Perhaps, but I don’t live in the Midwest or Plains states.

Not physically.

 

[faceman]

I thought that a cold front coming through an area before a TS/hurricane tended to push the storm out of the way -- sometimes even weakening and breaking the storm apart. Doesn't the high pressure behind a cold front usually win the meteorological sumo match?

Being that Invest 90 hasn't yet developed into a cyclone (EDIT: or has it?) ... I have hopes that the present cold front passing over the northern Gulf may even prevent Invest 90's (further) development altogether.

I stand corrected. That's why I'm not a pro met. Cold fronts do swoop down and curve hurricanes NE harmlessly out to sea
in late summer. This is a totally different set up. This cold front is expected to stall. This will create an area of high pressure
which would keep the storm pushed to the south or weaken it like Linder suggested. What no one knows is where this front
stalls. It's still very much a wait and see game,

 

[Doug B]

I hope that wasn't Storm2k. The mods/admins there don't usually put up with nonsense like that.

Nah, it was another football board. I only come to the EE Board for my tropical forecasts

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[SaintRob]

Oddly enough, I was just looking this up today! What's up 2020? We going to get a micro-hurricane in Lake Pontchartrain next?

 

[Grumpy Old Manatee]

Don't ask, don't push it. Still 3+ months to go in 2020.

 

[gboudx]

Yes. If there was ever a year where a Cat 5 would develop in December and impact the US, it's 2020.

 

[superchuck500]

I feel like we never got to know her.

 

[faceman]

The latest from a pro met at storm 2k. Still lots of uncertainty.

wxman57 wrote:Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

 

[gboudx]

^wxman57 is a good, Cajun guy from Lafayette, and a Saints fan. He can be an annoying heat miser on the Winter threads taunting everyone who wants the cold and snow. But he knows his stuff.

Prolonged and potentially significant coastal flood event increasing for the upper and middle TX coast.

USAF mission just arriving into the area in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and will see what the data shows over the next few hours and if the system will be upgraded

90L has continued to show signs of organization today with various bursts of deep convection in an near a likely center.

There remains significant uncertainty in the track guidance, but maybe a slight bit of consensus through about 48-72 hours where most of the global model guidance drifts 90L, N or NNW at a slow forward motion. This place the system somewhere over the NW Gulf of Mexico off the TX coast early next week in a very weak steering environment. After that the fragile consensus begins to fall apart with some models taking the system toward the west, other looping it SW and yet other lifting it NE and ENE. Additionally, all the models have varying speeds as to how this all plays out with some very slow and other slightly faster.

If you can’t tell from above…the uncertainty is extremely low.

Impacts:
There is enough confidence that an increasing pressure gradient between the deepening low to the south and strong high pressure to the north will result in increasing ENE/NE winds across much of the NW and N Gulf starting this weekend and increasing into early next week. This long fetch will result in water transport toward the coast and will also build seas to 10-15 feet over the NW Gulf by early next week. Coastal tides are already elevated and will remain around 2.0 ft MLLW on Saturday and then begin to rise to near 4.5-5.5 feet MLLW (barnacle level) on Sunday. These levels will reach our coastal flood warning thresholds and expect impacts along the coast starting Sunday and lasting well into next week. Significant beach and dune erosion will be possible along with inundation of low lying areas that are prone to high tides. Travel could become impacted in coastal areas at times of high tides along with low lying areas in coastal SE Harris County especially around Clear Lake.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[superchuck500]

^wxman57 is a good, Cajun guy from Lafayette, and a Saints fan. He can be an annoying heat miser on the Winter threads taunting everyone who wants the cold and snow. But he knows his stuff.

 

[gboudx]

Yes. This is his avatar from S2k. When the models start showing an arctic front coming down with chances of wintry precip for NCTX and CTX, he starts agitating people about building a wall along the Canadian border and the TX/OK border. It's all in good fun.

 

[gboudx]

90L has been upgraded to TD 22.

Main takeaways is coastal flooding along the Texas coast and slow and uncertain track forecast.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District