***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (1 Viewer)

[Super44]

The GFS para has it hitting south Texas,moving offshore again,hitting SELA,moving offshore again and hitting the same area
Sally just ravaged. .2020 is crazy.

Here is a quote from a pro met on storm 2k. The experts are struggling with this one.

Models may be having trouble with all the cool, dry air flowing down the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico this weekend. Such flow naturally forms a wave on any cold front. Most models, at least initially, have the low as frontal. Some detach it from the front and drive it west to Texas next Wed-Thu-Fri. I'd much prefer that they are all wrong and nothing but a frontal wave develops. Who wants to come up with a 7-day forecast for me to issue to hundreds of clients tomorrow? Millions of dollars will depend on what is forecast. So much for any time off post-Sally.

Exactly! Tough job. But they get paid very very well.

 

[HoustonGold]

What the hell is that?

 

[faceman]

What the hell is that?

esembles from various models. Basically they say we have no clue where this is heading

 

[superchuck500]

Yep, "well-defined circulation" at the surface.

 

[StudioSaint]

Yep, "well-defined circulation" at the surface.

Step aside sharknado for imaginary-sociopathic-man-in-dog-suitnado. No wonder the models for this thing are so schizo.

 

[faceman]

The gulf waters are still strong enough to support a hurricane. The blue areas are still at 84 F.The waters where Laura
landed have fully recovered for this time of year.

 

[bonnjer]

 

[HoustonGold]

Hard to believe but most of the reliable tropical models are aiming it toward the Louisiana coast on Sunday! It never ends.

Not anymore. There is a front that will knock it somewhere

 

[Doug B]

Models are all over the place right now. I'm seeing landfalls from Nola to Brownsville. That cold front does concern me though.
They can interreact with these storms and pull the more poleward.

I thought that a cold front coming through an area before a TS/hurricane tended to push the storm out of the way -- sometimes even weakening and breaking the storm apart. Doesn't the high pressure behind a cold front usually win the meteorological sumo match?

Being that Invest 90 hasn't yet developed into a cyclone (EDIT: or has it?) ... I have hopes that the present cold front passing over the northern Gulf may even prevent Invest 90's (further) development altogether.

 

[gboudx]

I thought that a cold front coming through an area before a TS/hurricane tended to push the storm out of the way -- sometimes even weakening and breaking the storm apart. Doesn't the high pressure behind a cold front usually win the meteorological sumo match?

Being that Invest 90 hasn't yet developed into a cyclone (EDIT: or has it?) ... I have hopes that the present cold front passing over the northern Gulf may even prevent Invest 90's (further) development altogether.

The Houston pro-met I copy/paste here discussed the front/trough and possible affects. It's on page 1 now if you want to read it.

 

[Doug B]

The Houston pro-met I copy/paste here discussed the front/trough and possible affects. It's on page 1 now if you want to read it.

I did post before I read Lindner's points ... thanks for posting. It looks like he's also expecting Invest 90 to struggle to strengthen beyond a TS thanks to the cold front and the dry air coming in behind it.

Full disclosure: Just getting a little sick of the "New Orleans is gonna GET IT!!!!!" predictions for every system in the Gulf. I'm playing the same record, different day, I guess. There was one guy on another board who is really hanging his hat on Invest 90 turning into Katrina's p.o.'d big brother and sitting stationary over New Orleans for three weeks as a newly-invented Cat 6 storm.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

I did post before I read Lindner's points ... thanks for posting. It looks like he's also expecting Invest 90 to struggle to strengthen beyond a TS thanks to the cold front and the dry air coming in behind it.

Full disclosure: Just getting a little sick of the "New Orleans is gonna GET IT!!!!!" predictions for every system in the Gulf. I'm playing the same record, different day, I guess. There was one guy on another board who is really hanging his hat on Invest 90 turning into Katrina's p.o.'d big brother and sitting stationary over New Orleans for three weeks as a newly-invented Cat 6 storm.

Some people just enjoy stoking fear in others and delight in knowing they are causing stress or angst to another.

 

[gboudx]

Full disclosure: Just getting a little sick of the "New Orleans is gonna GET IT!!!!!" predictions for every system in the Gulf. I'm playing the same record, different day, I guess. There was one guy on another board who is really hanging his hat on Invest 90 turning into Katrina's p.o.'d big brother and sitting stationary over New Orleans for three weeks as a newly-invented Cat 6 storm.

I hope that wasn't Storm2k. The mods/admins there don't usually put up with nonsense like that.

 

[Saintman2884]

I hope that wasn't Storm2k. The mods/admins there don't usually put up with nonsense like that.

But there are more then enough online weather/hurricane message boards where amateur mets living safely in the Midwest, Plains states, or some states like Tennessee or Arkansas seemingly gloat, disgustingly exagerrate or embellish a likely TS in GOM will turn into Katrina or Laura 2.0 with this pathetic joy/misguided excitement their "witnessing history". This is why, people, I got upset last week and most posters disliked it with LOL emojis for me being angry at nothing. Sentiments like these exist and not just with scattered, emotional sadists online who delight in spreading misinformation and angst to readers who they knew full well might read and get wrapped up into their hysteria because their uninformed.

Very well-constructed lies or distortions conveniently premeditated can fool even a very media-literate, informed, intelligent population or certain sections of a populace occasionally.

 

[St. Widge]

But there are more then enough online weather/hurricane message boards where amateur mets living safely in the Midwest, Plains states, or some states like Tennessee or Arkansas seemingly gloat, disgustingly exagerrate or embellish a likely TS in GOM will turn into Katrina or Laura 2.0 with this pathetic joy/misguided excitement their "witnessing history". This is why, people, I got upset last week and most posters disliked it with LOL emojis for me being angry at nothing. Sentiments like these exist and not just with scattered, emotional sadists online who delight in spreading misinformation and angst to readers who they knew full well might read and get wrapped up into their hysteria because their uninformed.

Very well-constructed lies or distortions conveniently premeditated can fool even a very media-literate, informed, intelligent population or certain sections of a populace occasionally.

Buzd has always been a troublemaker and a Party Lamp.