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no matter how the Saints got the ball back, all they were going to was run out the clock....the field position didn't matter.....
it was a stupid decision
it was a stupid decision
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I don't know if it was a "poor" decision. I'm of the opinion that either of the calls would be defensible. Your link says, "the conversion attempt would have been the percentage play, by a margin of 0.23 to 0.15." As the linked piece acknowledges, this conclusion is based upon pure statistical evaluations and not "game specific" considerations. I think such game specific considerations tend to narrow the numbers even more.Here's why it was a bad call: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/should-falcons-have-punted.html
The thought process leading to the decision, not the outcome, determines whether or not it was a good or poor decision. In this case, it was a poor decision. Heck, they beat us in the first game primarily because they went for it and converted on 4th downs.
Granted, I'm happy that Smith chose poorly, but still...
I think it was just a sticky situation, simply based on where the ball was. Anywhere on the other side of the 50, and they go for it, because their defense was playing so well. From where they were, a failed attempt puts us a few yards outside of FG range, and they would have needed a TD (assuming we make the game 20-14), not a FG. I give more credit to the Saints defense than anything, for putting them in such an unenviable position.
I don't know if it was a "poor" decision. I'm of the opinion that either of the calls would be defensible. Your link says, "the conversion attempt would have been the percentage play, by a margin of 0.23 to 0.15." As the linked piece acknowledges, this conclusion is based upon pure statistical evaluations and not "game specific" considerations. I think such game specific considerations tend to narrow the numbers even more.
A 4th and 6 has a 44% conversion rate. At the risk of stating the obvious, a less than 50/50 conversion number isn't exactly the highest percentage play out there. If Atlanta gets a 3 and out, they're still going to have plenty of time (using two time outs and 2:00 warning) and good field position. It ended up not working out for Atlanta, but their strategy wasn't unsound there.
I honestly think the better play would have been to go for it there, but I don't think it was exactly an indefensible call.
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W.hat
W.ould
L.es
M.iles
D.o
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