We Aren't Blowing It Up, So What Now? (2 Viewers)

[lilvipa221]

Excellent post.

An average team is only a couple picks and improvements away from good and one more surprise and you can be great. An average team is only one or two injuries away from weakness and coaching can only go so far to compensate.

The line between good and great and good and terrible is pretty damn thin.

Before injuries we were good. After we are horrible and much of that is due to the sheer volume of injuries. Missing Davis for a game coupled with Werner was bad. The DL has really been underperforming, but if the O can't do anything then you're bad. Maybe with the injury report getting better we go back to average. Maybe we get back to good, but blaming the freaking coaches for missing 8 starters on offense is misguided.

Still, whatever happened to this D is confusing. It could be as simple as the O can't keep them off the field, but it's astounding.

We were not missing 8 starters for the first 5 games when we were 2-3. The last two games, yes that can be excused but the first 5 games were not good and we were relatively healthy.........and the defense has only had a handful of injuries.

 

[dtc]

We were not missing 8 starters for the first 5 games when we were 2-3. The last two games, yes that can be excused but the first 5 games were not good and we were relatively healthy.........and the defense has only had a handful of injuries.

My point was that you can't win in the NFL with 70% of your payroll on the sidelines. And, we had the toughest schedule in the league the first few weeks and we all hoped to win 2 or 3 by week 5 or 6.

We lost to good teams when we were hurt and as always the margin between good and great or good and bad is razor thin.

Anyone who went into this season thinking we were winning 13 games was an optimistic idiot.

Anyone who thought maybe after the first 2 was probably pretty optimistic, as well.

Anyone with any sense assumed we'd be mediocre and that's what we likely will end up despite the hot start.

In hindsight, we were better than mediocre until we became a mash unit and once we heal up we'll probably end up being above average or better assuming DA gets whatever has happened to the D figured out.

 

[Saint KayBee]

My point was that you can't win in the NFL with 70% of your payroll on the sidelines. And, we had the toughest schedule in the league the first few weeks and we all hoped to win 2 or 3 by week 5 or 6.

We lost to good teams when we were hurt and as always the margin between good and great or good and bad is razor thin.

Anyone who went into this season thinking we were winning 13 games was an optimistic idiot.

Anyone who thought maybe after the first 2 was probably pretty optimistic, as well.

Anyone with any sense assumed we'd be mediocre and that's what we likely will end up despite the hot start.

In hindsight, we were better than mediocre until we became a mash unit and once we heal up we'll probably end up being above average or better assuming DA gets whatever has happened to the D figured out.

I’m one of the most optimistic idiots here and I predicted 11-6 when the schedule released, and haven’t moved off that until now since it’s essentially not going to happen.

That prediction relied on a few things that haven’t gone the way I expected. Mainly, injuries hit this team the way a cannonball hits a sailboat, vs. the usual manner of scattershot injuries and “nobody’s ever 100% in December” that every team deals with. It flipped some expected wins to losses, turned what I predicted as a 6-1 start into a 2-5 one, and now the team has to go 9-1 down the stretch to hit 11-6 on the year. There’s 4 games before the official bye week, 6 after. It’d take a lot to run off a 9-1 record, because it means they basically can’t afford any sub-optimal games, so instead I’m more focused now on how this team plays out the back half. Do they fight for each other and the fans and show what they’re capable of at full health, or do they go in the tank and start trying to figure out their next moves? Time will tell - let’s hope for the best, being sour won’t do me any favors.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Long time lurker since the Duece was a rookie. Created an account just to respond to this thread. We're all bitten, going from a top 5 QB of all time and a possible HOF coach, to a mediocre to below average team. Here's what a see.

First, I see the exact same problems on the field the Raiders had when DA was head coach there. The difference between then and now, is Al Davis vs Mickey Loomis. The Raiders had a lot of talent on the rosters back then. You could even debate that they had a better QB with Carson Palmer. But the game planning was not good at all. Often, opposing coaches would make adjustments on the fly or halftime, and DA couldn't keep up. The players also refused to "Run through a brick wall for him". It just seemed like he was not a leader of men, and arguably not even much of a leader. A lot of the players on the raiders moved on to have better careers elsewhere (Palmer ex) or had their worst years under DA (McFadden)

Point being, when Loomis tagged DA as HC, I hoped it would be a Belichek thing, where he sucked at one place and did an excellent job in his second chance. However, I had a bad feeling that wouldn't be the case. I just saw lack of fire from the Raiders, almost as if they looked like they wanted to be anywhere else. And yes, I watched a fair amount of Raiders games back then being a partial Chiefs fan (Saints first still).

Here's what I expected : The saints to win 2-4 games a season with DA.
The truth : The saints will win 4-8 games a season, because Loomis can stack a team by abusing the cap and kicking the can down the road, but runs a risk of 2-4 wins a season because of lack of depth, and the coaches inability to coach up players, and coaches inability to provide valuable draft input. But at least Mickey Loomis isn't calling plays down to DA from the owners box this time (yes, Al Davis did that).
The future : Purgatory of middle round picks. Never good enough to make the playoffs and truthfully compete, and fighting hard to not finish a season rivaling the Browns/Panthers etc for worst team of the season. This will occur until we become a 2-5 win team as legacy players from the Payton era get too old, or move on. Hard to imagine Loomis sticking with DA after a season or two of that.

I don't think who we draft really matters. I'm sorry, but even if we drafted a Brees reincarnated, I just don't ever see the fire in players to compete under a DA led team. I also suspect heavily that coaching players up is ineffective on the DLine and offense in general. The secondary on the other hand, DA is a wizard with. That's been proven time and time again. So we'll have that.

 

[SirLoinSaint64]

Eh. Blah. Snore.

 

[dtc]

I’m one of the most optimistic idiots here and I predicted 11-6 when the schedule released, and haven’t moved off that until now since it’s essentially not going to happen.

That prediction relied on a few things that haven’t gone the way I expected. Mainly, injuries hit this team the way a cannonball hits a sailboat, vs. the usual manner of scattershot injuries and “nobody’s ever 100% in December” that every team deals with. It flipped some expected wins to losses, turned what I predicted as a 6-1 start into a 2-5 one, and now the team has to go 9-1 down the stretch to hit 11-6 on the year. There’s 4 games before the official bye week, 6 after. It’d take a lot to run off a 9-1 record, because it means they basically can’t afford any sub-optimal games, so instead I’m more focused now on how this team plays out the back half. Do they fight for each other and the fans and show what they’re capable of at full health, or do they go in the tank and start trying to figure out their next moves? Time will tell - let’s hope for the best, being sour won’t do me any favors.

I wouldn't have bet on 11 wins, but thought 10 was feasible. I was basing this off an average offense and DA's typical stout D which hasn't been correct.

After the first 2 games, I'm willing to give this whole season a pass unless the D fails to improve.

Of course, football is a team game. The D cannot win when it' son the field 40 minutes and the O scores nothing. So, 9 and 8 seems feasible and that's where I'll stand.

I have never been one to use statistics as a predictor, but the stats with Hill in vs Hill out are pretty freaking amazing. It's as if we're playing with one extra man on the field at all time and that guy plays any position at any time so with him back it may be like a light switch Sunday.

WE'll see.

 

[Nolan]

So Loomis is no longer a top GM?

He isn't. Certainly not in the capacity that he's attempting to be. If you're a general manager of a football team, and you're not a football guy, you surround yourself with the right people to make football decisions. You support the football operations with what they need to build a contender. And for a long time, he did that.

But now? It feels as though he's trying his best to Jerry Jones this thing. Sometimes less is more.

 

[sfidc3]

He isn't. Certainly not in the capacity that he's attempting to be. If you're a general manager of a football team, and you're not a football guy, you surround yourself with the right people to make football decisions. You support the football operations with what they need to build a contender. And for a long time, he did that.

But now? It feels as though he's trying his best to Jerry Jones this thing. Sometimes less is more.

Totally agree here....that disaster, clown show of a press conference last year showed that in spades....I find it hilarious how so many think CSP is to blame for the current Saints woes when the fact is after he left this organization has kind of fallen apart.....

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

He isn't. Certainly not in the capacity that he's attempting to be. If you're a general manager of a football team, and you're not a football guy, you surround yourself with the right people to make football decisions. You support the football operations with what they need to build a contender. And for a long time, he did that.

But now? It feels as though he's trying his best to Jerry Jones this thing. Sometimes less is more.

What has he done to make you feel that he’s trying to do his best JJ?

 

[robsmith32]

We had mostly the same edge players with a top run defense. As well as great pass defense.
Letting onyemata out building hurt, as well Malcolm roach.
Our defense is biggest problem is being out of gas, having to be on field too much with little recuperation time.
Biggest problem with aging, and much of our defense long in the tooth. Is it takes longer to recuperate.

 

[St. Widge]

We were not missing 8 starters for the first 5 games when we were 2-3. The last two games, yes that can be excused but the first 5 games were not good and we were relatively healthy.........and the defense has only had a handful of injuries.

How is 2-3 in 5 games with two wins by blowout and two losses in the last minute or last seconds not about average?

 

[SAINT BIGAL]

The worst part is that they didn't really try to keep Hendrickson. They thought he was just an effort guy and wasn't very good. It just seems to be more evidence of the problem with failing to properly evaluate DL talent.

Instead of keeping Hendrickson, they went with Davenport b/c they had so much invested in him. Now they have neither.

 

[St. Widge]

He isn't. Certainly not in the capacity that he's attempting to be. If you're a general manager of a football team, and you're not a football guy, you surround yourself with the right people to make football decisions. You support the football operations with what they need to build a contender. And for a long time, he did that.

But now? It feels as though he's trying his best to Jerry Jones this thing. Sometimes less is more.

How is a guy who has worked in NFL front offices and as a General Manager of an NFL team for about 30 years not a "football guy"? Just because a bunch of guys on the internet who have never been employed by an NFL team much less been an NFL GM think so?

Loomis has made mistakes, all GMs have, but to say he's not a "football guy" is really strange to me. He's not a professional talent evaluator, but many GMs aren't. That's why they hire scouts and heads of scouting.

And I'm not seeing any change in how Loomis does his job. Frankly, the fact that he has been doing the same things with the cap and with draft picks up until the last two years is the biggest mistake he has made.

 

[St. Widge]

Instead of keeping Hendrickson, they went with Davenport b/c they had so much invested in him. Now they have neither.

It wasn't even that. It was that they though Hendrickson was just an effort guy who could not sustain what he had done that year.

As far as Davenport, the dude is really talented and produces when he is healthy. The problem is that he is never healthy and all the injuries are making him nor the player he was.

 

[DSnfla]

To have a first-rate franchise with championship aspirations, you need three things: a top quarterback, a top general manager, and a top coach. We currently have none of the three.

You don't need all 3. SF does not have a great GM or a great QB . KC's GM is so so. When TB won all they had was Brady. A lot of team that are good don't have all 3, they do have 1 good one