Week 3 vs the Packers will be the game where the Offense gets right. (3 Viewers)

[CowtownSaint]

Green Bay is currently -1.5 against the Saints, and 54-46% FPI chance to win. FPI supposedly takes in offense, defense, and special teams. I do not know what affect player status and/or game site would have on the index, although I would think player status in particular would be considered in the index.

That’s for the heads up I just got in at +2 for big money!

 

[Rouxble]

There Dline is no where near as strong as TEN or CAR. If there still able to get pressure and we can't protect Carr, then that will be a very poor indicator of the overall success this team will have this season, regardless of the outcome of the game.

Their defense is currently eighth best at generating pressure (% of dropbacks with pressure), and Carr is currently 4th worst at taking sacks when under pressure (% of pressures that lead to sacks). Both Tennessee and Carolina are outside the top-20 so far this season, making our early season protection struggles more concerning.

There secondary is on par with the Texans, below average, and we should be able to get separation and move the ball down the field. As bad as the Saints Oline has been with pass protection, they do a much better job in run blocking against CAR. If Miller is truly ready and we continue to use Taysom we should be able to have some success running the ball and opening up the passing game.

Against Atlanta, they played mostly in a quarters look, and Atlanta was able to manipulate their secondary on a few snaps to get a good look for Ridder. A few concepts are appealing if we can protect Carr.

As far as running, we should get chances because their front did not appear to be stout against the run, and a safety is playing in the run fit from 10+ yards out.

 

[Rexman100]

I mean, that's fair. He's obvs not a rookie but with the preseason being what it is now, this is only his 3rd constructive in-game experience with this team coming up so for that reason -- and, admittedly, some others -- he's still shaking off the stink of the lesser precious metal of the silver and black for the superior metal of gold and black.

Hey, I went back and charted every play from the first half. Because I was wanted more clarity. And my opinion has changed. I’m going to copy past my chart below. It’s every Offensive play in the first half, (Quick notes and descriptions). Because I’m typing live as the game goes. So bear with me. It’s my personal notes. Anyway I was looking for Oline issues, Carr issues, etc. and what I found was shocking. I found that the play calling was completely perfect. Carolina was off balance on EVERY play. Carr didn’t look nervous or like I said PTSD. That’s why I’m typing this here. I don’t expect people to read it. But I’m posting it anyway for the real football nerds.

Game starts, all Saints offensive first half plays :

Two runs for 6, then quick 5 harder for a first to MT. Then Taysom hands for 4. Come backroute to Olave, was covered. So he under throw it on purpose. Blitz over RT sacked nothing he could do. Ram burned . Now punt.
(That first drive fail wasn’t on Carr. It was good coverage then a legit sack )

Next series starts on 25. Carr rolls out finds kirkwood for 10. It looks like a catch, but further review it’s called incomplete. Kirkwood failure. Perfect throw. Low and on time. 2nd and 10 now. Second, solid run to Williams up the middle for 6. (Carr was behind the center taking the snap) 3rd and 5. Shotgun pass to MT for 6. D PI called. 1st and 10 on 35. Carr in the shotgun perfect curl to MT for 6. 2nd and 4: Taysom in gun Carr very wide. Taysom for 12 over the LT and out of bounds. 1st &10 Carr hands off from behind center to Williams for 6. Carolinas d is totally out of sync now. Ball on panther 42. Carr shotgun, changes play, quick out gets batted. Great D good pass. 2nd an 10: Carr from the gun hits Olave for a first down needed 4 got 6. Carr behind center hands for 1 over RT. Sec 9: Carr shotgun, hit foster for 12 on a slant to the sideline. At panther 20 yard line. Hill from the gun takes it for 8 up the middle. So far the play calling is awesome. Everything is working. 2:36 left in the 1st. I’m going to say this now, we did not come out nervous or lacking confidence. Oline allowed a sack but thats about it. Carr from the gun to MT on another curl for a first. Ball at 13 yard line. Carr rolls to his right hits foster for 6 down to the 7 yard line. Carr under center, handoff blown up on Ruiz side. 3rd and 3 now. Carr from the gun, throws it out of the endzone. It was a miscommunication too. Carr was under major pressure so a simple throw away was the right call. But it looked like a miscommunication too. MT was at the goal line Carr was throwing to the back of the endzone. Miss communication We kick tied 3-3.

They punt we start on our 45. Carr under center, one back, handoff over LT for 5 or 6. 2nd and 5, Carr under center, handoff to the right tackle side for 5 first down. Great play calling still. Taysom lines as Qb in the gun, blasts up the middle literally could’ve drive a truck not even touched until second level. Carr comes In find MT on the right side slant (the play where MT took shots from two defenders and held on). For 7 yards , first down. From the panther 30. Carr under center fakes the handoff to the RB steps up, (like he’s looking downfield) but it’s a screen to the same RB, perfect play call, because the entire panther front was sold on sacking Carr and the back of their d frozen from the pump fake. But Carr misses the easy toss to the back. It kinda looked thrown away too. I’d have to look closer. Carr from the gun gets hit while he’s throwing. Flag against Caro, hands to the face. 1st and 10, from 25. Hill hands off and the back gets stung out wide for no gain. Carr in the gun changes play on 2 and 9 , has time throws to MT in the endzone. MT gets hit as the ball is coming down!!! That was PI wasn’t called. Carr under the gun MT on the Butt play for a first on Carolina 8 . Huge play. Actually it’s at the 4 not 8. 1st and 10. (10:30’til 1/2) Taysom hill from the gun over the right side no gain. Carolina was ready. 2nd down, from the 5. He lost a yard. Carr back in under center. Finds Olave in the back of the endzone he takes a double shot and drops it. Not Carrs fault. 3rd down, Tony Jones jr pass from Carr wide open but mid timed. He threw before Tony was looking back. (Issue with Carr and Tony not practicing together). We kick fg. And next series we start at our 32 . (Williams goes to locker room) Carr in the gun to shaheed for 11. Carr under center, hands for 2 to Tony. Carr in the gun quick slant to MT for 8. Ball on 50. Carr in the gun quick to mT on the right side. DPI not called. Punt. Carr from the gun 9’ our 25 throws easy pick into double coverage. Yikes.
He simply doesn’t see the cb at all dropping back.
We get ball back from a strip sack from grand. Carr quick pass to Olave for 8. Then same play to juwan good pass, drop. 3rd and 2 quick pass for a first to shaheed. For 5. Carr bottle up sacked. His oline failed him. Big time. Still at the 50. Carr misses Olave on a deep cross. 45 secs til half. Carr sacked again. Oline allowed a bum rush. We punt and it’s half. That ls all in calling.

 

[B4YOU]

I don’t think this is the get right game. It will be more of a get by with a close W if we run the ball well.

 

[Rexman100]

I don’t think this is the get right game. It will be more of a get by with a close W if we run the ball well.

This game is tough to call. You’d expect GB wants to get back on the field ASAP to get that Atl loss behind them. It’s their home opener. They also have a great defensive front and will generate a pass rush equal to what we’ve seen so far. Love is a seasoned version of Bryce. By seasoned, I mean, he won’t take sacks scrambling by not knowing Granderson is bearing down on him and he’s got better vision of the entire field. And he can make all of the throws. I expect this game to be 9-7 or close at half. For us to win, we will need our CB‘s to actually catch the pick opportunities. Then immediately take deep shots to gain the momentum. Perhaps Taysom lines up in the eye, then takes a deep shot to Shaheed for 50 yards. (We need to be creative and aggressive play calling). If we can get up by 10, then we’ll have to be able to run the clock by running the ball. Mixing in Taysom will be key. Hopefully Kendre shows us something but he’s not required. Tony Jr will be fine. He runs hard and falls forward and pass blocks well.

So far the Saints’ oline has gotten better and better each game. This needs to continue, a set back will be a loss. I like the under. If I had to pick a team, I’d take the Saints plus 1.5 all day. Our D is better than there’s overall. Our offense is better than there’s overall. Our play calling has been great. Statistically, GBs has been protecting Love better than we have been protecting Carr. So there’s that. And that fact makes this game close. Our special teams, Grupe is not a liability, but a strength. I like the Saints straight up by 7. 24-17.

 

[lilvipa221]

I'd be lying if I said that there isn't an inherent anti-falcons bias in anything I post, but seriously, Drake London, Mack Hollins, and KhaDerel Hodge (their WRs) are not in the same class as Mike Thomas, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. We have depth at TE. They have an unproven 2nd year QB.

Sure their running back talent closes the gap a bit, but they will NEVER win consistently in the NFL with that receiving corps.

My comparison was including Kamara, who I will acknowledge we dont have for this game, but I still suspect our Offense will do better against Green Bay than Atlanta's did and that we will do better over the course of the season than Atlanta will.

So by your logic we have to score more than 25 points then. If we don't then you may have to rethink this thought process. We already put up less points than this inferior offense against Carolina.