What are we really expecting from Olave in year 3? (9 Viewers)

[B4YOU]

Expectation: Olave 1300 yards and 6 TDs in 2024. Olave talked about improving RAC after 2022 and he did that in 2023. I don't expect TDs to increase much because he isn't the big body WR that boxes out guys in the redzone.

Why I expect improvement: The OL was terrible last year. I expect we will do a better job at play calling to mitigate what will still be a shaky OL. Thomas averaged 8 targets in Sept and Oct. I don't see players on the roster that eat all 8 of those passes so Olave should see more targets early. We were 26th in using motion last year. I think we will see Olave on the move to get him a free release and at speed early, again to help him and the OL. This will be the 2nd year of Carr/Olave and I think the two will be on the same page earlier this year.

 

[meily]

He's not pretty excellent at it by far even for his size. In 2023 Out of 25 Contested catches he's caught 10 of them, good for 40%. For comparisons sake Rashid Shaheed had 9 and caught 5 for 55.6%. The year prior it was 8 out of 24 for 33.3%. Is that really improvement?




In 2023 Olave saw 138 targets, the next closes was AK with 86, the next closest receiver was 75 with Rashid Shaheed. Michael Thomas had 64. I understand your angle but the facts are they attempted to run the offense through Olave for 2 years straight and it resulted in #2 WR production. In 2022 it was more of the same. 119 targets to Olave, 77 to Kamara, and 65 to Juwan.

So if I take you angle, and apply it to what were likely to see in 2024 with potentially fewer pass attempts AND the ball being truly spread around, unless he becomes more efficient his #s will potentially go down.

Again, for comparisons sake, Brandon Aiyuk put up better #s with less touches 101 targets (he was 49ers leader in targets as well). So if we use that for a baseline with Olave, again unless he becomes more efficient with his touches, there's a probability his #'s go down



Allow me to put my words into context. The quote used by Allen is you expect a players BIGGEST jump, to come from year 1 to year 2. Yes, Olave improved, but he didn't take a huge jump despite seeing his targets increase, which is why I'm questioning how much more room for him to grow is there. I don't know that his contested catch is going to improve much, perhaps we get more from him in YAC but if were running more screens we've got to get better blocking from the WR's.

I predicted he'll have a big year, so it's in my best interest that he does...but the more I look into the details the more I potentially see a #2 WR as his ceiling.

So much of the same, because we spread the ball around.

I am not saying his production will dip or I should of said I expect Olave to continue to ascend as a player and play maker in this offense.

 

[Artifactual]

Olave can be a top 10 WR. His hands speed and route running are all 3 top notch. How with a new OC I’m expecting big things for Olave. He could finish top 5 in yards.

While Olave does have good football speed he gets open and gets separation with superb route running moreso than outright speed.

Again, he's fast, but not blazing fast. At the combine he ran a 4.39 forty-yard dash. That's not NFL top notch.

For a better perspective check out the links below:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/fastest-nfl-players-2023/

Ranking the 10 Fastest NFL Players in 2024

Updating list ranking the fastest players in the NFL, as well as fastest times ever recorded at the NFL combine.

sports.betmgm.com

Who Is the Fastest Player in the 2024 NFL Draft? Top 9 by 40-Yard Dash Times

Xavier Worthy made headlines with his 40-yard dash time. Who else posted an elite number at the NFL Combine?

www.fanduel.com

 

[sfidc3]

While Olave does have good football speed he gets open and gets separation with superb route running moreso than outright speed.

Again, he's fast, but not blazing fast. At the combine he ran a 4.39 forty-yard dash. That's not NFL top notch.

For a better perspective check out the links below:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/fastest-nfl-players-2023/

Ranking the 10 Fastest NFL Players in 2024

Updating list ranking the fastest players in the NFL, as well as fastest times ever recorded at the NFL combine.

sports.betmgm.com

Who Is the Fastest Player in the 2024 NFL Draft? Top 9 by 40-Yard Dash Times

Xavier Worthy made headlines with his 40-yard dash time. Who else posted an elite number at the NFL Combine?

www.fanduel.com

40 time is vastly overrated....what Olave has (which is way, way more important) is elite quickness, change of direction....which is one reason why he also is an elite route runner.....

My only issue with Olave (and why I think he will never be a top 3 type WR) is.....size and strength.....not a knock on him at all, he plays hard and has all the intangibles you want in a great WR, just a physical limitation.....

 

[B4YOU]

40 time is vastly overrated....what Olave has (which is way, way more important) is elite quickness, change of direction....which is one reason why he also is an elite route runner.....

My only issue with Olave (and why I think he will never be a top 3 type WR) is.....size and strength.....not a knock on him at all, he plays hard and has all the intangibles you want in a great WR, just a physical limitation.....

Most top 15 WRs are in the 210lb range while Olave was 187lb when drafted. Diggs is a 6' 195lb guy but they play different. Olave is a smaller Terry McLaurin without the vertical leap win ability. Hill, Diggs, and Jefferson are the sub-200lb guys in the top 15. I think two of those guys have an argument for top 3 so size and strength aren't the only factors.

 

[sfidc3]

Most top 15 WRs are in the 210lb range while Olave was 187lb when drafted. Diggs is a 6' 195lb guy but they play different. Olave is a smaller Terry McLaurin without the vertical leap win ability. Hill, Diggs, and Jefferson are the sub-200lb guys in the top 15. I think two of those guys have an argument for top 3 so size and strength aren't the only factors.

JJ is listed anywhere from 195 to 205, my guess is he is 200lbs at least, he is also much stronger than Olave.....Tyreek Hill is sub 200 but is also only 5'9" and very stout. Diggs is just under 200 and much stronger than Olave. Some guys like Steve Smith and Joey Galloway were sub 200 but freakishly strong, Olave clearly is not.....

I never said size/strength are the only factors but they are definitely important.....With Olave, I think he is just not as dynamic as the other guys listed because of that physical limitation.....otherwise he has all the same great WR attributes.....

 

[saint_drago]

JJ is listed anywhere from 195 to 205, my guess is he is 200lbs at least, he is also much stronger than Olave.....Tyreek Hill is sub 200 but is also only 5'9" and very stout. Diggs is just under 200 and much stronger than Olave. Some guys like Steve Smith and Joey Galloway were sub 200 but freakishly strong, Olave clearly is not.....

I never said size/strength are the only factors but they are definitely important.....With Olave, I think he is just not as dynamic as the other guys listed because of that physical limitation.....otherwise he has all the same great WR attributes.....

We've seen WRs who were smaller (sometimes much smaller) than Olave but they played strong. Steve Smith never seemed like he was 5'9", 195. Terance Mathis played much bigger than 5'10", 177 for the falcons. Antonio Brown was 5'10", 185 but he played like a giant.

If you had never watched Olave play you'd assume that at 6', 187, size wouldn't be that big of an issue. But then you watch him play and he just doesn't play big. I'm hoping he can add strength but he's never going to be Anquan Boldin out there.

 

[sfidc3]

We've seen WRs who were smaller (sometimes much smaller) than Olave but they played strong. Steve Smith never seemed like he was 5'9", 195 Terance Mathis played much bigger than 5'10", 177 for the falcons. Antonio Brown was 5'10", 185 but he played like a giant.

If you had never watched Olave play you'd assume that at 6', 187, size wouldn't be that big of an issue. But then you watch him play and he just doesn't play big. I'm hoping he can add strength but he's never going to be Anquan Boldin out there.

Spot on above.....it's not just the weight, it's the build.....shorter guys under 200 are typically very stout and strong.....Steve Smith and Galloway could both bench press over 400lbs and had the bench press reps of a lineman.....Boldin had a terribly slow 40 time but was quick, strong and stout, with great hands.....one of the perfect examples of why 40 times are so overrated.....

 

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

Olave can be a top 10 WR. His hands speed and route running are all 3 top notch.

LOL stop it

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

I hear that TreQuan and Brandon Coleman are still available

 

[B4YOU]

JJ is listed anywhere from 195 to 205, my guess is he is 200lbs at least, he is also much stronger than Olave.....Tyreek Hill is sub 200 but is also only 5'9" and very stout. Diggs is just under 200 and much stronger than Olave. Some guys like Steve Smith and Joey Galloway were sub 200 but freakishly strong, Olave clearly is not.....

I never said size/strength are the only factors but they are definitely important.....With Olave, I think he is just not as dynamic as the other guys listed because of that physical limitation.....otherwise he has all the same great WR attributes.....

Agree. It’s why I mention vertical leap difference. Beckham Jr. is similar height but 10lbs heavier with >6” more vert. Olave high points balls, but he isn’t a physical mismatch for corners. He wins on route running and very good not great speed. His contested catch numbers reflect this.

Can Olave add 10lbs and improve his play strength? That’s likely the difference between a #1 WR and a 1000y nice to have 1B WR like Cooks.

 

[sfidc3]

Can Olave add 10lbs and improve his play strength? That’s likely the difference between a #1 WR and a 1000y nice to have 1B WR like Cooks.

He's definitely better than Cooks, much more polished route runner.....

 

[Saint Greg]

He's definitely better than Cooks, much more polished route runner.....

That's not an extremely high bar. I think most teams have at least 1 WR better than Cooks.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

Without seeing the numbers that have been presented earlier in this thread, my eyes told me that Olave's biggest area for potential improvement overall is in the contested catch category. There were quite a few balls over his first two seasons that he got his hands on, but couldn't quite pull in for the reception. Many of these "drops" (some of these would have been difficult catches regardless, so I am not sure if they would qualify definitively) were instances where he had essentially pulled them in, but didn't quite survive the ground. He does a great job of putting himself in position to make the catch in traffic, but hand and arm strength seemingly played a part in passes being incomplete rather than a reception.

Personally, I don't want Olave to get "bigger" overall, as the risk of losing speed and route-running agility - his greatest strengths - outweighs the potential upside. Olave isn't a possession receiver, and trying to put a square peg in a round hole in that respect would likely be a mistake. Improved hand and arm strength would do wonders for his game IMO, and he's not necessarily going to look bigger as these areas improve. He's still a young man, and players continue developing strength over their first several years within an NFL training program. I think he has a lot of potential to naturally improve in this area over the next couple of years.

Having said all that, trying to categorize him as a #1 or #2 is a pointless exercise. He has demonstrated the capability to produce at a level that warrants both distinctions. What IS important is that the Saints continue to develop the receiving core around him in a complementary manner. There are very few guys in the league who are elite at all three levels, capable of boxing defenders out as a possession receiver just as easily as they take the top off of a defense. Olave isn't one of those rare guys, even if he is a really, really good receiver. Someone on our roster, whether it's a WR or a TE, needs to function at a high level in a possession role and provide what we'd hoped that MT would have the last couple of seasons when the play breaks down and nobody is open.

 

[renegadewa]

To me the entire offense gets a red shirt for last season.

I was in the Pete camp but it didn't take long for it to get very bland and very stale.

I have to say that I was and I think most Saints fans were VERY disappointed in the coaching and play calling last season which directly trickled down to an offense that for most of the season couldn't get out of their own way most of the time.

Just my opinion though.............