What are we really expecting from Olave in year 3? (8 Viewers)

[Sailorsaint]

I have enough faith in him that I'm going to do something I never do.....I'm going to draft him in my FFL. I never drafted Saints players while Drew was here because he spread the ball around so much. I think he'll get a lot of looks inside the 30.

 

[Artifactual]

So, if I take your angle, and apply it to what we're likely to see in 2024 with potentially fewer pass attempts AND the ball being truly spread around, unless he becomes more efficient his #s will potentially go down.

Kubiak in his initial interview as the Saints OC said the emphasis in his offense will be to run the ball. The 49ers were dead last in pass attempts in 2023 with Kubiak in the role of passing game coordinator. Now that doesn't mean the 2024 Saints will be a mirror image offense of the 2023 9ers, but you can believe the intent will be to establish the running game and have the passing attack work off of it. That may or may not work in all instances and the Saints may have to throw the ball more often than Kubiak would prefer from game to game and considering game situations.

On the other hand, Kubiaks' dad, Gary, said he expects to see Klint run his own style of offense. So far in OTAs and Mini Camp the Saints offense has shown lots of pre-snap motion, play action passes, bootlegs, and passes attacking the middle of the field. The Saints may throw the ball fewer times in 2024 than in past years but the emphasis in the passing game will be to be more efficient and deceptive.

I'm OK with Olave having potentially fewer targets in the passing game if the ball is successfully spread around more. The goal is winning. Just Win Baby!!!

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

A pretty fair overall assessment of Olave through his first 2 years in the league with Some Caveats To Consider. There are 32 NFL teams. Someone, whether considered a number one receiver or not by pundits, will lead each team in receiving. Chris Olave led the Saints in receptions with 87 and in yardage with 1,123 in 2024. He ranked 17th in both categories of all WRs in the NFL in 2024.

He wasn't so lucky with injury in 2023. He got knocked out of the 1st Atlanta game early in the 3rd quarter with a concussion after dominating in the 1st half with 114 yards on 6 receptions. After suffering with the flu and missing practice on Thursday and Friday leading up to the Saints Week 14 contest with the Panthers, Olave then suffered an ankle injury during the game. He then missed the entire game the following week against the Giants.

Olave had Andy Dalton at QB in 2022 who underthrew him several times on deep balls where he was open only to allow the DB a chance to break up the pass. He started out the first 3 games of the 2024 season red hot with Carr at QB before cooling off while the offense as a whole looked totally inept and the offensive line couldn't keep Carr upright to have a chance to be consistently effective until the last 5 games of the year, in which Olave missed part of one and the entirety of another. In the final 5 games of the year where Carr shined statistically Olave saw limited targets in all but one game that he did play which was the Rams. In that game Olave had 123 yards on 9 reception. It's conceivable that had Olave played healthy in all 17 games with better play around him he would have put up close to 1,500 yards in 2024.

He doesn't need much more growth in 2024 over his first two seasons. Yards after the catch would be the main area of improvement for Olave that would be a difference maker. He worked hard the prior offseason to improve his contested catch ability. That may improve in the Kubiak offense by giving him more slants and crossing routes instead of sideline throws and deep balls. Having suffered a concussion in each of his first 2 seasons he needs to work on protecting his head when landing. His numbers don't have to improve significantly as long as the ball gets spread around and other players improve their numbers across the board.



Excerpts from DraftSharks.Com player profile - Chris Olave Injury History & Updates

Chris Olave's Preseason Player Analysis (For 2024)​

Bottom Line​

Olave remains easily the Saints’ best WR.
He improved in nearly every metric from Year 1 to Year 2, and the upward trajectory should continue this season
Though Derek Carr is still the QB, Olave will get the targets to be an every-week starter and a WR1, which is where he sits in our rankings.

What We Learned Last Year​

• Olave posted a season-long stat line of 87 catches for 1,123 yards and five TDs in 16 games.
• His per-game averages were slightly improved from his rookie season (2022):
  • 8.63 targets (up from 7.93)
  • 5.44 receptions (up from 4.80)
  • 70.2 yards (up from 69.5)
  • 12.9 yards per catch (down from 14.5)
  • 0.31 TDs (up from 0.27)
• Olave ranked as the PPR WR16 in total fantasy points and WR20 in points per game.
• He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a right ankle injury. It was the third game he’s missed in two years.
• He had four top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
• Olave’s target share stayed consistent from 25.6% in 2022 (21st among WRs) to 25.8% (16th among WRs).
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Olave ranked 17th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (2.07).
• Among those same 89 WRs, Olave ranked 18th in average targeted air yards (13.3) and 12th in percentage of team air yards (37.15%).

What to Expect in 2024​

• Olave enters his third season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
  
  • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (604).
• Olave enters his third season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Olave’s career produces at 95% of his peak value at age 24.

Link To Full Article Below:

Chris Olave Injury History & Updates

Chris Olave Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

Kubiak in his initial interview as the Saints OC said the emphasis in his offense will be to run the ball. The 49ers were dead last in pass attempts in 2024 with Kubiak in the role of passing game coordinator. Now that doesn't mean the 2024 Saints will be a mirror image offense of the 2023 9ers, but you can believe the intent will be to establish the running game and have the passing attack work off of it. That may or may not work in all instances and the Saints may have to throw the ball more often than Kubiak would prefer from game to game and considering game situations.

On the other hand, Kubiaks' dad, Gary, said he expects to see Klint run his own style of offense. So far in OTAs and Mini Camp the Saints offense has shown lots of pre-snap motion, play action passes, bootlegs, and passes attacking the middle of the field. The Saints may throw the ball fewer times in 2024 than in past years but the emphasis in the passing game will be to be more efficient and deceptive.

I'm OK with Olave having potentially fewer targets in the passing game if the ball is successfully spread around more. The goal is winning. Just Win Baby!!!

I concur, I'm just looking at it from the POV will Olave ever become the #1 WR they traded up hoping he'd be, and if he doesn't, will we be forced into paying him like one? I'm reading where for Aiyuk, the 49ers want to pay him as a high end #2 due to how they spread it around, but in trade talks they are selling him as a #1.

The Saints currently don't have a true X following the departure of MT, but when you look at this system, they don't use the 6'3 215 guys in that role often.

Pierre Garcon, Terry McLaurin, Aiyuk, etc those guys are typiclaly in the 6'0 200lb range. Bub Means fits the prototype for that position as well with his size/weight/speed.

Training Camp will reveal a lot, but if Olave is to stay at the Z position primary, that's not a position that gets featured much in the offense. So, either he's going to have to work the slot more (which I'm for, currently he only spends 33% of his time there) or they'll have to ask him to play more X snaps. Which, because he'll be on the LOS, means he'll have to improve his release package and get stronger.

 

[Artifactual]

Olave is easily the best WR2 (true position) in the NFL. Problem is....

Is that really his TRUE position?

I predicted he'll have a big year, so it's in my best interest that he does...but the more I look into the details the more I potentially see a #2 WR as his ceiling.

Come on guys. Don't ignore the facts. There are 32 NFL teams which means there should be at least 32 potential #1 WRs on the field each week. Olave barely ranked outside of the Top Half of All NFL WRs in Both Receptions (87) and Yardage (1,123) which ranked him as the 17th best WR in 2023 in those categories. Of the 89 WRs who had at least 45 targets, Olave ranked 17rh in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and he ranked 18th in yards per route run with 2.07. In 2023, Olave ranked as the PPR WR16 in Total Fantasy Points and WR20 in Point Per Game.

Until you can name 32 better WRs in the NFL and at least one of them on the Saints roster, Olave is and will continue to be considered a #1 WR in the league.

You all may feel like he is soft because he doesn't break many tackles and goes to the ground easily without many yards after the catch, but that doesn't define him as only being a #2 WR when he not only has led the Saints in receiving his first two years, but he ranks inside the top 20 of all NFL WRs in production. With better QB play the past two years and better all-around offensive production his numbers would have undoubtably been much higher than they were. The Saints couldn't run the ball effectively in 2023 and couldn't consistently keep Carr from getting the snot knocked out of him and yet Olave put up very good numbers when everyone knew he was the go-to guy. Keep in mind that was also with PC calling the plays. Expect to see Olave get the ball on more crossing routes and slants in 2024 than he got in his first 2 years combined.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Dennis Allen makes it clear the Saints need Chris Olave to play to a higher standard in 2024

Chris Olave has been solid in his first two years in the NFL, but the New Orleans Saints are expecting him to reach another level in year three.

whodatdish.com

During OTAs, head coach Dennis Allen talked about the expectations that he has for Olave, and Allen was very blunt about the fact that he’ll be demanding much more out of the young receiver in his third season. Allen started by saying that the team’s expectations of Olave is that they can get a lot more out of him. He went on to say that Olave can improve in contested catch situations, run after catch situations, and overall consistency from play to play.

Here's his #'s.

YAC from 2022 to 2023 saw him improve by a full yard at 1.1. In 2023 it was 4.1 yards after catch, 2022 it was 3.0. So, there was improvement there, and I do think that can be unlocked a bit more. He's a smooth accelerator after the catch if given the space, he won't break many tackles, but he does erase angles to a degree and can run past guys. This becomes more pronounced if he can work the slot a bit more and get matched up against slower guys.

The consistency aspect I have some questions about because it depends on his confidence. He's already admitted he gets down on himself and lets mistakes linger and then compound. Yet, conversely, if were talking consistency he's been consistently good since entering the league. So, those questions aren't as big.

My biggest concern is his contested catch rate. That's where in both 2022 and 2023 he was consistently below average. 33% in 2022 and 40% in 2023 and that increase is only because he caught one more pass on one more target (24 in 2022 and 25 in 2023). This is with them forcing the ball down the field to him, and I can't put it all on Derek Carr. It's on Olave to come down with those more consistently, and if it's what BoBad had alluded to with strength being the issue, as noted by Underhill he doesn't look any bigger this year at all. Could he be stronger? Sure, but it doesn't sound like getting bigger or adding more weight was an emphasis for him.

If he can win down the field more on those contested catches his #'s and TD's could go up but there has to be a middle ground of do we want to continue forcing those plays to him or giving them to other guys who have been more productive in those scenarios ( Shaheed 55%, Perry 66.7%, Johnson 64.3%)

 

[Artifactual]

I concur, I'm just looking at it from the POV will Olave ever become the #1 WR they traded up hoping he'd be, and if he doesn't, will we be forced into paying him like one? I'm reading where for Aiyuk, the 49ers want to pay him as a high end #2 due to how they spread it around, but in trade talks they are selling him as a #1.

The Saints currently don't have a true X following the departure of MT, but when you look at this system, they don't use the 6'3 215 guys in that role often.

Pierre Garcon, Terry McLaurin, Aiyuk, etc those guys are typically in the 6'0 200lb range. Bub Means fits the prototype for that position as well with his size/weight/speed.

Training Camp will reveal a lot, but if Olave is to stay at the Z position primary, that's not a position that gets featured much in the offense. So, either he's going to have to work the slot more (which I'm for, currently he only spends 33% of his time there) or they'll have to ask him to play more X snaps. Which, because he'll be on the LOS, means he'll have to improve his release package and get stronger.

I couldn't agree more with everything you have said in this post. Hopefully the Saints will have a WR threat other than Olave and Shaheed who has the size and ability to be a threat in the passing game that will actually open the field up more for Olave and Shaheed.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Is that really his TRUE position?



Come on guys. Don't ignore the facts. There are 32 NFL teams which means there should be at least 32 potential #1 WRs on the field each week. Olave barely ranked outside of the Top Half of All NFL WRs in Both Receptions (87) and Yardage (1,123) which ranked him as the 17th best WR in 2023 in those categories. Of the 89 WRs who had at least 45 targets, Olave ranked 17rh in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and he ranked 18th in yards per route run with 2.07. In 2023, Olave ranked as the PPR WR16 in Total Fantasy Points and WR20 in Point Per Game.

Until you can name 32 better WRs in the NFL and at least one of them on the Saints roster, Olave is and will continue to be considered a #1 WR in the league.

You all may feel like he is soft because he doesn't break many tackles and goes to the ground easily without many yards after the catch, but that doesn't define him as only being a #2 WR when he not only has led the Saints in receiving his first two years, but he ranks inside the top 20 of all NFL WRs in production. With better QB play the past two years and better all-around offensive production his numbers would have undoubtably been much higher than they were. The Saints couldn't run the ball effectively in 2023 and couldn't consistently keep Carr from getting the snot knocked out of him and yet Olave put up very good numbers when everyone knew he was the go-to guy. Keep in mind that was also with PC calling the plays. Expect to see Olave get the ball on more crossing routes and slants in 2024 than he got in his first 2 years combined.

No one said he was soft, and though I respect your argument...Dennis Allen is already quoted as they expect MORE out of him than he's given them to this point. The expect him to be elite, and those numbers you posted aren't elite by any stretch of the imagination.

So it's not what people feel, the facts are the facts, he's not an elite WR yet, and this thread is simply questioning can he be an elite WR if he's likely to see reduced volume in this offense, along with already having missed out on the big 2nd year leap that most are expected to have in the 2nd season.

Can the offensive system open him up more, sure..but again he'll have to be more efficient with his touches or the Saints will have to work to put him in more favorable situations. Perhaps as you mention more crossing routes could result i more YAC, maybe less jump ball situations will be good for him, but he's going to see them, and he'll need to be better at them than he's showin in 2 years.

You can counter argue us all you want, I'm fine with that, can't counter what Allen has said.

 

[Artifactual]

No one said he was soft, and though I respect your argument...Dennis Allen is already quoted as they expect MORE out of him than he's given them to this point. The expect him to be elite, and those numbers you posted aren't elite by any stretch of the imagination.

So it's not what people feel, the facts are the facts, he's not an elite WR yet, and this thread is simply questioning can he be an elite WR if he's likely to see reduced volume in this offense, along with already having missed out on the big 2nd year leap that most are expected to have in the 2nd season.

Can the offensive system open him up more, sure..but again he'll have to be more efficient with his touches or the Saints will have to work to put him in more favorable situations. Perhaps as you mention more crossing routes could result i more YAC, maybe less jump ball situations will be good for him, but he's going to see them, and he'll need to be better at them than he's showin in 2 years.

You can counter argue us all you want, I'm fine with that, can't counter what Allen has said.

The premise of your initial post leaned on Olave not having a big 2nd year leap over year 1. It's fair to say he didn't, but mainly because he had a very good year 1.

Then you, and others, contend that Olave has performed like a #2 the past two years while his production numbers say differently and say his ceiling is that of a #2. Most of my reply content counters that notion with the Fact that Olave posted numbers in 2023 that put his production inside top 20 of all WRs in the league.

Now you've injected Elite WR into the conversation. I've already said in my prior posts that it's likely Olave may see fewer targets in 2024 than in 2023 due to Kubiak spreading the ball around more in the passing game and putting an emphasis on running the ball more this year. That doesn't mean the play of Olave will regress. He just might not be targeted as much as before and may not attain the same or better numbers than in years past. In that case, you may be right that his numbers won't improve in 2024 over 2023. Although it would be nice if CO develops into an Elite WR, he doesn't have to in order to be a very good WR1.

I won't attempt to counter what Allen has said about Olave. He should say such. As HC he should say similar stuff about every player here. That's correct coach speak.

Surely, we don't want to travel down the road quoting Allen with all of what he has said, choices or decisions that he has made, in the past two years, as the Saints HC.

I'm not trying to argue with you as I've agreed with most of the content of the posts you have made. We just differ on a few of the details, namely whether or not Chris Olave is a #1 WR or a #2 WR in the league. We both agree that he has been the Saints #1 WR the past 2 years, and both expect him to be so in 2024. I also realize you are not here hating on Olave in your posts as you have said "I predicted he'll have a big year, so it's in my best interest that he does." I'm all for it, but winning is what counts most.

Back to the year over year improvement, it may have not been by leaps and bounds, but it was improvement, nonetheless.

See DraftSharks.Com player profile statement on Chris Olave below which I posted in a prior thread.

"He improved in nearly every metric from Year 1 to Year 2, and the upward trajectory should continue this season."

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

This is why we can't have nice things

 

[Saint Greg]

I have enough faith in him that I'm going to do something I never do.....I'm going to draft him in my FFL. I never drafted Saints players while Drew was here because he spread the ball around so much. I think he'll get a lot of looks inside the 30.

MT, AK, Jimmy, and Colston were worth having when Drew was here. I wouldn’t touch Olave as we’re moving to more of a run-oriented offense.

 

[saint_drago]

This reminds me of the old #12 debates about whether or not Colston was a legitimate WR1. My perception was always skewed by fantasy football. In fantasy I wanted my WR1 to put up top 5 numbers. For my WR2 I wanted a guy who would consistently get catches and yards. If they scored TDs it was a bonus. With guys like Moss, Owens, Harrison, Antonio Brown, Julio, Megatron, etc. there was never any doubt. I always thought SP's offense wasn't conducive to a true WR1 because the system spread the ball out so much. But then Mike Thomas happened. CGM was a monster and not only was he a legit WR1, he was arguably the best WR in football.

So I guess you can say there are levels to it. You can say that Olave and #12 were low end WR1s or high end WR2s. It's not a knock on them at all, it's just that relative to their position they weren't near the top. If Colston played in an offense that gave him 150+ targets every year then I'm sure he would've put up no doubt WR1 numbers.

I'm expecting, or at least hoping that Olave gets stronger. He doesn't have the frame to improve much in terms of size but he can improve strength. With better hand strength and overall physicality he could make a jump but I don't know how significant it can be. A better offense, more weapons, and better QB play would help but I don't know to what extent. It seems crazy to think that a player going into their third year is near maxed out but when it comes to Olave I think what we've seen might just be what we get. And that's fine because he's a really good player but when you consider what it took to draft him and what it will take to keep him, I'd hope for more than really good. I'd hope for great or even elite.

 

[44slayer]

Olave is who he is.

What wouldve made him better is bringing in a WR1 or a TE1. Because we didnt address that (at all), he isnt going to take a next step because he is cornered into being something he isnt.

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

I really want consistency with him. That's it.

 

[Nolan]

He's not pretty excellent at it by far even for his size. In 2023 Out of 25 Contested catches he's caught 10 of them, good for 40%. For comparisons sake Rashid Shaheed had 9 and caught 5 for 55.6%. The year prior it was 8 out of 24 for 33.3%. Is that really improvement?

Oh, wow. Good to know. I didn't look at stats, felt like an eye test thing for me, particularly vertically. Felt like if it's 1 on 1 downfield, he's coming up with it more than he's not. I will acknowledge that short and intermediately he's disappointed in that area (which makes sense because DBs can be a little more sticky and physical in that range and he isn't big/strong)

And uh, just for the sake of being cheeky, yes.. 40% is an improvement over 33.3%

 

[Artifactual]

And uh, just for the sake of being cheeky, yes.. 40% is an improvement over 33.3%


40% over 33.3% is a 27.5% increase which is a considerable increase in any method of math equations. Just Sayin.