Why the low draft grades? (3 Viewers)

[guillermo]

I am not comfortable with the quality vs. quantity argument.

First, you need more than four draft picks every year to have enough players on the team who are legitimate starters in the NFL. You can find in rounds three and four tight ends, running backs, defensive tackle, linebackers, safeties. We have seen in recent years the limits of relying so heavily year after year on undrafted free agents.

Second, the number of players a team has playing under their rookie contract, the better a team's position should be relative to managing the salary cap.

I have always liked the Patriots approach. Trade back and collect picks. If someone falls, you can trade up and get them.

I am sure we will have a discussion during the dead months of the offseason.

Let me be clear, I prefer to have an agressive General Manager that goes for it than one that stand still and wants to win the press and fans.

But there should be a balance in resources, and for that I mean cap, picks, investing in free agents

I don't think a problem giving away the farm when you have a mature roster, and consider we are close to go the the big game.

But when your roster is at that stage, you better understand that the talented players you have may have to leave to a second expensive contract, that is how the market works.

It's not a matter of quantity vs quality. It is a matter of going for quality once, and balance it with quantity the next time.

 

[oodank]

Stop it, with the gave up too much talk. The Saints made a pick for next year, this year. The picks are just capital what matters is what you acquired for the capital, and context. If you take out a loan 95% of time you're paying interest. The 3rd&4th was the interest.

 

[BBarnes]

2-3 good picks who start day 1 is better than 6 garbage picks who will sit on the practice squad / special teams / get cut

Exactly! No good team in HISTORY used his mindset of quantity over quality in the draft.

 

[Saint Kamara]

As of now, I can’t give the team a mark higher than a C.

We had two goals for the upcoming draft:

To find the players to keep or make us more competitive.

To use rookie salaries in order to clean the cap.

Clearly we got two, maybe three players so far that fit the goals.

But at the same time, we committed way too many resources obtaining these players. For this and the next two drafts.

Second and third round picks may not be building blocks, but core players that can give us 3-4 years on cheap salaries. We have given those away.

We are already cap strained, and giving away those present and future picks restrain us to move around and be able to make decisions building a younger roster.

We achieved quality, but forgot about much needed quantity.

It’s too early to grade the off-season, but even now I can say that giving away resources will keep the grade down for me.

Totally agree with this assessment.

Too much given up to get our players.

And yes we needed more quantity in these picks for the next 2 years.

 

[woohoosaint]

The TV/internet NFL "experts" grades sometimes don't line up with how NFL teams value players.
Perfect example is Malik Willis.

Most "experts" had Willis as a first round talent.
In contrast...Dan Patrick mentioned on his show yesterday that according to his sources in the NFL, most teams had Willis at a 3rd round grade.

Sometimes there is a disconnect between how organizations value players and TV/internet personalities view players.

 

[No2DC]

Like ant draft, it comes down to production. A 1st round pick is supposed to have the floor of a starter and a ceiling of a star. Both of our draft picks fit that mold for the most part (Penning may need some time to play LT but Olave should start day one). A 2nd pick is a potential starter and anything more is a bonus. Taylor fits that as well. Although I wish we had more picks we went after the guys we wanted and got them. Loomis and DA did not sit ack they made sure they got 3 BPA/need players.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Seeing pretty much grades of “C” across the board on all the sites.

Main criticism is we gave up too much- but haven’t seen any real criticism of the actual picks.

Considering we got 3 key pieces - it feels like a huge success.

1) We now have 2 WRs with vertical speed to stretch the field (Olave, Harris) and will free up Thomas in the slant game. Winston will have a much easier time with this.

2) 2 mean mauling tackles with Ram and Pennington, protecting Winston

3) A solid S replacement after losing Marcus Williams.

Love the picks so far. I clearly remember prior drafts where we cut half our picks or more anyways…so I say 3 potential starters is a win

The likelihood that Taylor replaces Williams is remote at best. FS takes a particular skillset and he’s never play the position before. It’s much more likely he’ll be a nickel CB or MAYBE SS. If the Saints can’t afford CJGJ he would be the obvious replacement.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Those advocating more rather than fewer picks base their arguments on statistical analysis and humility. Every NFL team has the numbers. Every NFL team has the statistical data showing by position what is the probability of the player picked at 12, 22, 48 or 84 becoming a Pro-Bowl player, a starter for at least three years, a starter his rookie year, or playing more than three years in the NFL.

Again, drafting is hard. Depending on definition of success, there is even in the first round, especially after the top 12 or 15 picks, a relatively high disappointment rate.

But we picked Thomas, McCoy, and Marcus Williams in the second round; Kamara in the third round; Onyemata and Gardner-Johnson in the fourth round. And look at the receiver position in the NFL. Second-round picks were Devonte Adams, D.K. Metcalf, Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, and Chase Claypool. Third-round picks were Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Goodwin. Fifth-round picks were Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Those middle-round picks that we trade away much too often have value.

On this forum, there seems to be the prevailing assumption that Olave and Penning of course will quickly be quality starters and eventually high-quality players. We don't know that. And regarding our second-round pick, I know little about him, so once again I admit I can't pass judgment. But from history, a tad of concerns creeps in when I hear a player drafted in the second round say after his selection that he had been expecting to be drafted in the third or fourth round.

Finally, I would NEVER say never trade up. At times, trading up makes sense, especially for a quarterback. But at times, trading down might make sense. It depends on the draft and other circumstances. During the draft, a team tactically needs to be flexible, creative and yes, aggressive, to achieve its strategic objectives.

 

[Domeination]

For this year's draft to be worth it, Olave has to be an instant impact player, and Penning really also needs to start and play well. The FO got away from borrowing against the future by letting some stars go to reduce our cap and get our overall personnel costs in line. However, we've mortgaged our draft future, so we are still in a "Win now" mode. What we've done in the draft this year says to me that the FO believes we can win the NFC South and compete in the playoffs. Nothing less is now acceptable, or else this experiment will be a bust.

 

[sfidc3]

I guess I would say what good is “quantity” if there is not a real good chance that the later picks would make the roster.

I think the Saints draft to improve an already strong roster…..we don’t need 7 guys to make the team, we need 2-3 guys to make a difference, sooner rather than later…..and we also seem to pick up a UDFA or 2 that makes the roster….

 

[whodatphil]

Draft grades, much like mock drafts, mean nothing to me. I really don’t know anything until I see them play in the nfl. It’s just lazy article writing. You can go back to every year and see A and Bs on 1st round players that can’t even get their 5th year option picked up or hype on QBs 4 years ago that teams are trying their best to get rid of

 

[No2DC]

For this year's draft to be worth it, Olave has to be an instant impact player, and Penning really also needs to start and play well. The FO got away from borrowing against the future by letting some stars go to reduce our cap and get our overall personnel costs in line. However, we've mortgaged our draft future, so we are still in a "Win now" mode. What we've done in the draft this year says to me that the FO believes we can win the NFC South and compete in the playoffs. Nothing less is now acceptable, or else this experiment will be a bust.

Every move they've made since Sean retired has been "win now" and you can't argue against their logic. It's a team that had a winning record despite losing its starting QB, #1 receiver, backup QB, living away the first 5-6 weeks of the season, and a covid outbreak among coaches. The defense is a top 5 unit and we have multiple key players(under 30) in their prime. If Loomis wanted to blow it up they would not have retained 95% of the same coaches. Instead of thinking we could get by with budget WRs we went out and got a guy that was ranked among the top 5 WRs by most scouts. There is no such thing as a sure thing but they made aggressive but pragmatic moves.

 

[JackDiesel]

As of now, I can’t give the team a mark higher than a C.

We had two goals for the upcoming draft:

To find the players to keep or make us more competitive.

To use rookie salaries in order to clean the cap.

Clearly we got two, maybe three players so far that fit the goals.

But at the same time, we committed way too many resources obtaining these players. For this and the next two drafts.

Second and third round picks may not be building blocks, but core players that can give us 3-4 years on cheap salaries. We have given those away.

We are already cap strained, and giving away those present and future picks restrain us to move around and be able to make decisions building a younger roster.

We achieved quality, but forgot about much needed quantity.

It’s too early to grade the off-season, but even now I can say that giving away resources will keep the grade down for me.

Quantity of rookies won't clean up the salary cap, their position matters more and we got 2 at the highest priced offensive positions outside of QB. Our rookie last year is at the highest priced position on defense and our 2nd round pick will start his career at the other highest priced position on defense.

Also I think people are looking at the trades all wrong.

Olave cost us a 1st, 3rd and 4th this year. For as polished as he is and a perfect a fit as he is for what we want, few will complain with that.

Penning cost us a 3rd this year, 1st next year and 2nd in 2024. He's better than any 3rd round tackle we could draft this year. So we get that boost. And after a year of being coached by Marrone he'd be going in the top 10 of next year's draft if he was in it and we'll be picking 20+. All it cost to trade up and get that talent was a 2nd round pick in the draft after. That's cheap.

We're adding high impact players at premium positions and only lost a couple 3rd round picks and a 4th, one 3rd we only had because of a new rule for hiring minorities in the front office so it was lagniappe anyways that came via the Falcons.

 

[BELOWSEALEVEL]

The media had Malik Willis as a potential top 10 pick. That's how much the media knows

 

[baarbogast]

As of now, are we not slotted to get a comp pick for TA? Last I heard, the Dalton contract was a factor, but I didn’t think that contract (small contract) could void it out.

I wonder if the Clapp signing will offset Dalton. Not real sure when the comp season of FA ends.