2024 Tropical Weather Thread (2 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

That's crazy. I've literally never heard of hail in a hurricane.

so reading up on this....its rare to find hail at flight level ( 10k ft ) because normally the warmer air and motion ( not falling straight down, but since winds high, carry it longer thru warmer temps )

I dont know that means much of anything at this point. Cant find any real info on that.

What i did find is a great decryption for Vortex Data reports- ( if you are so inclined to understand Vortex Data Messages )

Decoding a Vortex Data Message | Learning Weather at Penn State Meteorology

learningweather.psu.edu

 

[efil4stnias]

I would never have considered hail in a hurricane to exist. Can you imagine a 100+ mph shard of ice?

Just did a quick conversion, but hail in a Cat4 would be about half the velocity of a musket ball
Not good

I dont think it makes it to the ground- this is at flight level. Its just too warm for hail to make it down to surface since its not falling straight down but rather, its falling on a diagonal trajectory and more time to melt due to higher temperatures.

WHY IS HAIL RARE IN A HURRICANE?

 

[superchuck500]

Now a Cat 4- 150mph winds as of 9am EST

The 4AM NHC update had peak winds at 145mph and now the 7AM has them at 155mph. With the storm already at 150mph and a lot of warm water and low shear left to go, I'd have to think they're going to revise it upward again. One thing we are seeing with these Gulf storms is that NHC intensity forecasting almost always plays out to be conservative.

 

[efil4stnias]

Good lort this thing gonna wreck the west coast of Florida. This could easily be the "worst case scenario" type of system for the Tampa/St. Pete area. Insurance for the Gulf Coast may not exist after this hurricane season.

here is a graphic- it goes back 7 years- take out Harvey and Irma in 2017, Michael in 2018 and you have 6 MAJOR canes making landfall on Gulf Coast in just last 4 years.

hopefully this is "peak cycle" and we start seeing no storms for a 3-5 year period.

 

[efil4stnias]

The 4AM NHC update had peak winds at 145mph and now the 7AM has them at 155mph. With the storm already at 150mph and a lot of warm water and low shear left to go, I'd have to think they're going to revise it upward again. One thing we are seeing with these Gulf storms is that NHC intensity forecasting almost always plays out to be conservative.

this whole Rapid Intensification cycle is wild. We all know about warm waters ( fuel ) but so many other atmospheric conditions need to be right for it do go thru RI.

And we seemingly are living in a period of time where all those conditions continue to be met for almost every storm in the GoM.

 

[superchuck500]

This is what @bclemms was saying but I'm seeing a lot of people commenting on how much debris and crap there is piled up in the cities and towns on the west side of FL from Helene - just waiting to be thrown around again.

 

[efil4stnias]

This is what @bclemms was saying but I'm seeing a lot of people commenting on how much debris and crap there is piled up in the cities and towns on the west side of FL from Helene - just waiting to be thrown around again.

Looks like waste management hadnt even started to pick up belongings curb side yet.

 

[efil4stnias]

The 4AM NHC update had peak winds at 145mph and now the 7AM has them at 155mph. With the storm already at 150mph and a lot of warm water and low shear left to go, I'd have to think they're going to revise it upward again. One thing we are seeing with these Gulf storms is that NHC intensity forecasting almost always plays out to be conservative.

 

[bonnjer]

Looking at the models, landfall is approx 66 hours from 06Z today when the models last ran.

The intensity chart consensus shows about a Cat 2 at landfall. This is good.

12Z is vastly different.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_intensity_12z.png

 

[Madmarsha]

Mother Nature ain't playing.

 

[efil4stnias]

Just got email from friend in Sarasota- they are staying- sigh.

Said as of yesterday- closest hotel room available was Georgia.

 

[Hubig]

Feel so bad for people in Florida that are gonna be impacted by this monster.

 

[Wisco Steve]

My dad is in North Port, staying put.
My mom is near Tampa, technically Ruskin...also staying put.
There simply aren't many realistic options for them to go to, unfortunately.

 

[superchuck500]

12Z is vastly different.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_intensity_12z.png

Solidly in Cat 3 there (Z+60)

 

[superchuck500]

10AM NHC advisory has winds at 155.