2024 Tropical Weather Thread (4 Viewers)

[guidomerkinsrules]

Peak Weather Channel prediction here.

2884 in 3, 2,…

 

[bclemms]

I bet you're a blast at parties.

I don't go to parties. Do not like fun.

 

[Nisey55]

I don't go to parties. Do not like fun.

Come on, you've been to more hurricane parties than the rest of us combined.

 

[bclemms]

Come on, you've been to more hurricane parties than the rest of us combined.

Only to monitor the situation wearing a safety jacket, helmet and a whistle.

 

[bclemms]

The good news, the hurricane models hate this system. The globals want to develop. The hurricane models try to bring it onshore before stalling, the globals keep it offshore. Typical wide spread on these sort of storms.

 

[Bill]

The good news, the hurricane models hate this system. The globals want to develop. The hurricane models try to bring it onshore before stalling, the globals keep it offshore. Typical wide spread on these sort of storms.

Couldn’t we just nuke it right where it sits in the BOC and blow that candle out before it affects anyone?

 

[bclemms]

Couldn’t we just nuke it right where it sits in the BOC and blow that candle out before it affects anyone?

That is plan B. Plan A is to take a sharpie and send this forker to Mexico.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I don't go to parties. Do not like fun.

Parties often only have a moderate risk of strengthening into full blown fun
They usually stall out as vibes fail to form

 

[bonnjer]

I know we need to keep an eye on the system close to home, but how about those two orange blobs out in the Atlantic, especially the one that's pointed in this general direction?

 

[bclemms]

I know we need to keep an eye on the system close to home, but how about those two orange blobs out in the Atlantic, especially the one that's pointed in this general direction?

No models are developing anything that threatens land beyond this next system. Obviously way out and could change but looks pretty clean atm.

 

[Bill]

I know we need to keep an eye on the system close to home, but how about those two orange blobs out in the Atlantic, especially the one that's pointed in this general direction?

We paid the price for a quiet early season. I’m guessing that the payback is going to be a real headache.

 

[bclemms]

We paid the price for a quiet early season. I’m guessing that the payback is going to be a real headache.

Could just be the forecasts (mine included) were very wrong. Obviously we had really hot water temps and climo suggested max potential with enso transitions but you still need the actual weather part to play. Dust killed a lit of the early season then so far through peak season the Bermuda high just failed to set up. That is typically the most predictable part of the equation.

Early fall doesnt necessarily mean less storms. When stalled fronts sit over the gulf, they tend to be very efficient at making tropical systems. With water so warm, it could mean hurricanes extend into November. It only takes one to really wreck things. If we do get that one, I hope people do not point to it as evidence of a good forecast because it was not. It is getting to the point of impossible to reach forecast levels.

 

[Bill]

Could just be the forecasts (mine included) were very wrong. Obviously we had really hot water temps and climo suggested max potential with enso transitions but you still need the actual weather part to play. Dust killed a lit of the early season then so far through peak season the Bermuda high just failed to set up. That is typically the most predictable part of the equation.

Early fall doesnt necessarily mean less storms. When stalled fronts sit over the gulf, they tend to be very efficient at making tropical systems. With water so warm, it could mean hurricanes extend into November. It only takes one to really wreck things. If we do get that one, I hope people do not point to it as evidence of a good forecast because it was not. It is getting to the point of impossible to reach forecast levels.

It actually seems that in recent years the number of late season storms has increased. I realize that the ‘ingredients’ needed for a major storm can occur during practically any part of the hurricane season. I’ve never put a lot of stock in the preseason predictions. And now that we have seen several powerful storms churn up after September, I don’t let my guard down for any of the hurricane season.

I’ve often repeated what you mentioned about how ‘it only takes one storm in your area’ to make for a bad hurricane season. Whether early or late in the season, a hurricane can change lives. It’s just best to be ready for anything… at any time.

 

[St. Widge]

Welp:

 

[HoustonGold]

Here we go! Buckle up !!!!!!!!!!!