2024 Tropical Weather Thread (3 Viewers)

[TheRealJRad]

Check out this headline

Will Hurricane Kirk hit Florida? New forecast details impacts, timeline

Hurricane Kirk gained strength Tuesday as it moved across the Central Atlantic.

www.yahoo.com

Then check out the extremely well forecasted track with nearly perfect model guidance for almost a week now.

You clearly forgot about the giant rubber band that stretches from Ireland to Spain. It’s going to bounce that storm right back.

 

[superchuck500]

Asheville officials talk about the restoration of the water system. Summary: it’s going to be a long time. There are three plants on the system and two of them are not only substantially damaged but the distribution pipes are destroyed in a patchwork of numerous locations, many of which will not be accessible until the roads and bridges are first repaired.

This will certainly mean that restoration is many weeks into months away.

Yesterday, I spoke to a work colleague of mine who lives in Asheville and was fortunate not to see heavy damage in her neighborhood - and her house is fine. They have power but no water and getting around to the various water distribution sites is challenging. She left on Tuesday with her two children to her parents’ house in Charlotte - her husband stayed behind, he’s a doctor at the hospital.

If this is the challenge for the largest city in the region, it can only be worse for the smaller towns and communities- except those that have a very local system they can repair.

Loading…

www.npr.org

 

[efil4stnias]

Asheville officials talk about the restoration of the water system. Summary: it’s going to be a long time. There are three plants on the system and two of them are not only substantially damaged but the distribution pipes are destroyed in a patchwork of numerous locations, many of which will not be accessible until the roads and bridges are first repaired.

This will certainly mean that restoration is many weeks into months away.

Yesterday, I spoke to a work colleague of mine who lives in Asheville and was fortunate not to see heavy damage in her neighborhood - and her house is fine. They have power but no water and getting around to the various water distribution sites is challenging. She left on Tuesday with her two children to her parents’ house in Charlotte - her husband stayed behind, he’s a doctor at the hospital.

If this is the challenge for the largest city in the region, it can only be worse for the smaller towns and communities- except those that have a very local system they can repair.

Loading…

www.npr.org

and i bet they are still 50% away from the full extent of what needs to be done- havent even begun on the "how do we fix" part.

Its mind-boggling to think of the infrastructure that needs repair/replace, the order in which to do and the amount of labor it will take to do. Months if not a year or two ( to be FULLY back ).

I suspect there will be temporary type fixes ( above ground pipes/power ) that will allow many to return, but understanding that there may be days down, while they work on permanent fixes.

We ( us flat-landers ) really dont understand the logistical nightmare of living in mountain cities/towns and the engineering that goes into building the infrastructure of those towns/cities.

Massive undertaking

 

[buzd]

and i bet they are still 50% away from the full extent of what needs to be done- havent even begun on the "how do we fix" part.

Its mind-boggling to think of the infrastructure that needs repair/replace, the order in which to do and the amount of labor it will take to do. Months if not a year or two ( to be FULLY back ).

I suspect there will be temporary type fixes ( above ground pipes/power ) that will allow many to return, but understanding that there may be days down, while they work on permanent fixes.

We ( us flat-landers ) really dont understand the logistical nightmare of living in mountain cities/towns and the engineering that goes into building the infrastructure of those towns/cities.

Massive undertaking

It will be years. Katrina was years, and had fewer infrastructure issues than this (or at least, they didn't fix ours).

 

[efil4stnias]

It will be years. Katrina was years, and had fewer infrastructure issues than this (or at least, they didn't fix ours).

the only "saving grace" i can see is the population density - meaning the infrastructure to rebuild isnt to serve a population amount like the GNO area.

But we still talking 100,000 residents and i dont know if that number includes those smaller towns just around Asheville.

But yeah, years. And wont be the same after all said and done. I mean, do restaurants/businessess rebuild next to the rivers/creeks? do they elevate ( which takes away from the ambiance of being next to water ) ? thats just one aspect of 100s to consider while reconstruction is taking place.

And the worst part - there is no preventing this. At least here we have some protection from levee, canals and pumps ( when they work )

 

[bclemms]

the only "saving grace" i can see is the population density - meaning the infrastructure to rebuild isnt to serve a population amount like the GNO area.

But we still talking 100,000 residents and i dont know if that number includes those smaller towns just around Asheville.

But yeah, years. And wont be the same after all said and done. I mean, do restaurants/businessess rebuild next to the rivers/creeks? do they elevate ( which takes away from the ambiance of being next to water ) ? thats just one aspect of 100s to consider while reconstruction is taking place.

And the worst part - there is no preventing this. At least here we have some protection from levee, canals and pumps ( when they work )

For Asheville, yes. For the other communities, the low population density, no useable roads and terrain are going to be far harder than Katrina.

This is going to be a decade long recovery.

 

[efil4stnias]

For Asheville, yes. For the other communities, the low population density, no useable roads and terrain are going to be far harder than Katrina.

This is going to be a decade long recovery.

yeah, those smaller mountain towns arent coming back at same speed as Asheville.


btw- saw you and Petramala on some Amazon Prime docuseries ( ep 4 i think ) for Ida. Good stuff hadnt seen ( lafitte area )

 

[ktulu909]

Also, time for me to be a party pooper. Models deserve watching in the gulf. Some signs of stupidity next week from the remnants of TD11.

At least 00z and 06z dont develop anything other than some rain

 

[superchuck500]

According to analysis cited in this article today, less than 1% of homeowners in the inland counties impacted by Helene had flood insurance. Landslides are generally also excluded from typical homeowners insurance.

The vast, vast majority of these people are going to find out that their homes were not insured against this event. What a total devastation

Helene brings flood insurance crisis as majority of properties not covered

A high percentage of homes in Hurricane Helene's path across the U.S. were not covered by flood insurance.

www.newsweek.com

 

[efil4stnias]

According to analysis cited in this article today, less than 1% of homeowners in the inland counties impacted by Helene had flood insurance. Landslides are generally also excluded from typical homeowners insurance.

The vast, vast majority of these people are going to find out that their homes were not insured against this event.

Helene brings flood insurance crisis as majority of properties not covered

A high percentage of homes in Hurricane Helene's path across the U.S. were not covered by flood insurance.

www.newsweek.com

sigh.

And the WORST part about the 99% - is i can only imagine how little flood insurance would have cost them ( due to elevation, risk exposure, no losses etc etc )

Im sure we will see SBA loans like we did post Katrina, but that doesnt help those that lost it all and STILL have a mortgage to pay on the home that is gone.

Of all the insurance i sell, FLOOD is BY FAR, the HARDEST sell for for property that is NOT in a flood zone.

 

[bclemms]

At least 00z and 06z dont develop anything other than some rain

It's got pretty good model support. For example, the Euro has a 997mb in the south central gulf. The 12z GFS has a borderline hurricane hitting Tampa area. The intensity guidance are split between weak storm and major. Basically they think if a core gets developed then it may RI. The hurricane models are more aggressive. I'm still leaning towards meh but we'll see.

 

[superchuck500]

sigh.

And the WORST part about the 99% - is i can only imagine how little flood insurance would have cost them ( due to elevation, risk exposure, no losses etc etc )

Im sure we will see SBA loans like we did post Katrina, but that doesnt help those that lost it all and STILL have a mortgage to pay on the home that is gone.

Of all the insurance i sell, FLOOD is BY FAR, the HARDEST sell for for property that is NOT in a flood zone.

Looking at relevant counties, it’s about $800/yr for the $250K FEMA policy.

Cost of Flood Insurance for Single-Family Homes under NFIP’s Pricing Approach

These examples show the cost of flood insurance for single-family homes under Risk Rating 2.0, using data from single-family policies renewed before Sept. 30, 2022. These exhibits will be updated and revised once all policyholders have renewed their policies under Risk Rating 2.0.

www.fema.gov

 

[TheRealJRad]

They also get the fun of their premiums going up, I'm sure. Sorry we didn't cover your damage but also pay us more

 

[efil4stnias]

Looking at relevant counties, it’s about $800/yr for the $250K FEMA policy.

Cost of Flood Insurance for Single-Family Homes under NFIP’s Pricing Approach

These examples show the cost of flood insurance for single-family homes under Risk Rating 2.0, using data from single-family policies renewed before Sept. 30, 2022. These exhibits will be updated and revised once all policyholders have renewed their policies under Risk Rating 2.0.

www.fema.gov

City of Asheville (proper ) zip is 28801.

per your link ( second XL document ) , that zip code, as of Aug 31 2023 had 28 policies in force.

twenty-eight.

and 28803- the videos where we saw Moe's/Asaka restaurants next to creek- where water was everywhere ( south of Biltmore ) had 75 policies in force

there is over 100 buildings just in this screen shot alone.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

which circles me RIGHT back to how hard it is to sell flood insurance to someone/some business that has NEVER flooded, NEVER seen a flood much less thought about flood waters.

Frustrating. Folks think we try to "upsell" them to make more $$$ in commission. If you are going to protect your investment, why protect it against 75% of exposure?

UGGGHHHH

 

[efil4stnias]

They also get the fun of their premiums going up, I'm sure. Sorry we didn't cover your damage but also pay us more

well at least they wont get put in the SRL ( Severe repetitive loss ) column of rates.