COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (4 Viewers)

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St. Widge said:
I don't know, it reads a lot like parents complaining because they actually have to parent. Nobody ever said being a parent was going to be easy.
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I agree. That's what my first sentence was about them shushing..i..e don't complain.
 
Goatman Saint said:
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But I do like seeing frustrated parents who so hope I stay healthy so they don’t have to do this much longer.
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I hope one of the positive outcomes of the outbreak is broad support for smaller class sizes. Parents are overwhelmed with 1-3 kids at home. Teachers trying to educate with thirty 2nd graders and no aide where the population is 50%+ on free lunches is just not a recipe for great educational outcomes. I hope teachers unions make a real push this fall for greater educational spending with a focus on smaller class sizes.
 
St. Widge said:
Yeah, I didn't click on the pictures at first so I didn't see the words on the side that said what they were. It does look like a pretty serious decline in the last 14 days. So, yeah, it is time to start Phase One, But we need to be on the look out in a week or so when we hit 14 days or so from Easter. I expect a bit of a spike from Easter gatherings but probably not enough to stop moving forward.
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LaToya: "How about some police checkpoints instead? "
 
IntenseSaint said:
www.studyfinds.org

Study: Rate Of Coronavirus Infections In LA Up To 55 Times Higher Than Confirmed Cases

Confirmed coronavirus cases only tell a portion of the story in any area, but a new study out of Los Angeles county has come to a startling conclusion.
www.studyfinds.org www.studyfinds.org

If LA had cases 28-55 times higher than confirmed cases, doesn't this put the mortality rate well below 1%
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Yes, and that's likely where it will end up once the majority of Americans have been legitimately tested (if ever) IMO.... The issue is... less than %1 have been tested... and I would think most of those %1 were experiencing symptoms when tested... So some of the initial tested numbers are lopsided....

But as has been said many times.... the rate of mortality is proportional to how insanely easy it is to spread this virus from person to person, and the fact that there is no known vaccine...

If half of US population gets the virus... that's 1.65 million deaths at %1 mortality rate nation wide. And that rate may go up should they all get it in short order and hospitals can't keep up.... Perspective is key on this...

We can't eradicate it right now... but we can slow it to keep the healthcare system from getting swamped....

That's why re-opening things has to be balanced, and based on local conditions.... there is no "one size fits all" here.
 
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Infoman said:
If half of US population gets the virus... that's 1.65 million deaths at %1 mortality rate nation wide. And that rate may go up should they all et it in short order and hospitals can't keep up.... Perspective is key on this...

We can't eradicate it right now... but we can slow it to keep the healthcare system from getting swamped....

That's why this has re-opening has to be balanced, and based on local conditions.... there is no "one size fits all" here.
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Agree with your last point completely.

On the mortality, the serological evidence is showing evidence of infection in 10x to 50x the number of confirmed cases from the sample. That rate of infection is going to also vary heavily based on locality, but I think 1% mortality is still going to end up on the high end by a meaningful degree. But even at half a percent, it's a dramatic death toll.
 
Mr. Sparkle said:
Orleans added just 21 new cases yesterday, the lowest number of new cases since March 16.
Orleans and LA data:
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Spoke to my friend the other day who is MD at Touro and he pretty much agreed with the chart. Less and less people at Touro so it’s good to hear. I think these numbers were the lowest for both Orleans parish and Louisiana in 3-4 weeks. Hopefully the trend continues.
 
Mr. Sparkle said:
Standalone graph of Orleans Parish new cases

1587489941796.png
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Not certain I understand this, the y axis is new cases over 7 days, but the x axis is not every 7 days, but daily. So, is the data point at 4/6 is including all new cases since 3/30, and the data point at 4/7 is since 3/31?
 
Booker said:
In a related story, the pastor in Central known for resisting the stay home order tried to back over a protester with a church bus and just got arrested for it...

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Reads kind of like he intentionally backed into someone with his vehicle. I wonder what the outstanding bench warrants are for and why the Police haven't gone after him for those in the past? It's not like they didn't know where he was.
 
LonghornSaint said:
Not certain I understand this, the y axis is new cases over 7 days, but the x axis is not every 7 days, but daily. So, is the data point at 4/6 is including all new cases since 3/30, and the data point at 4/7 is since 3/31?
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Yes. Its a rolling 7 day average so you capture the overall trend. For example reporting is light on Sundays and then on Monday you get basically 2 days worth of data. So it might look like a big dip and and then a big rise. A rolling average smooths that out.
 
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