COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (2 Viewers)

[Infoman]

I think it's true that the messaging in March and into April was that masks weren't likely to be effective. I remember the US Surgeon General tweeting that people don't need to be buying masks. At that time there was also concern that demand for masks from the general public would limit supplies at hospitals.

But in the meantime, new research has been coming to light evidencing that the virus transmitted though the air much more easily than first anticipated. The R0 values are higher than previously thought, and a number of airflow analysis reports and investigations of mass infections (e.g. at the bio-tech conference in Boston in February) have supported a revised view on the likely effectiveness of wearing a mask when around others . . . especially indoors. Also, we know that asymptomatic (or presymptomatic) infections are carrying sufficient viral load to be transmitting if the person is in public.

So we have a situation where mask supplies have increased and hospital need seems to be met. Contagiousness through the air is more potent than first believed.

Yep... but Like I said... either the "science" has changed in a couple months' time, so the recommendation was changed... or it was a very public Lie being told at the highest levels in March/April to limit the public wearing / hoarding / purchasing of masks...

Which is why I take all these "recommendations" and "science based projections" with Caution in practice... but also with a grain of salt... knowing they can be completely wrong, off my a mile, or changed tomorrow...

Science (by definition) is the ongoing/relentless questioning, observation, and testing in the search of truth/knowledge... and to say we are there in the latter part of that definition - is a stretch at best... and dangerously arrogant at worst. JMO.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Yep... and Like I said... either the "science" has changed in a couple months' time, so the recommendation was changed... or it was a lie being told in March/April to limit the public wearing and purchasing of masks...

Which is why I take all these "recommendations" and "science based projections" with Caution in practice... but also with a grain of salt... knowing they can be completely wrong, off my a mile, or changed tomorrow...

Science (by definition) is the ongoing/relentless questioning, observation, and testing in the search of truth/knowledge... and to say were are there in the latter part of that definition - is a stretch at best... and dangerously arrogant at worst. JMO.

I mean it's definitely possible that powers that be in the government are using the "trusted experts" like Fauci to mold narrative to what they want the public to see.

 

[superchuck500]

Yep... but Like I said... either the "science" has changed in a couple months' time, so the recommendation was changed... or it was a very public Lie being told at the highest levels in March/April to limit the public wearing / hoarding / purchasing of masks...

Which is why I take all these "recommendations" and "science based projections" with Caution in practice... but also with a grain of salt... knowing they can be completely wrong, off my a mile, or changed tomorrow...

Science (by definition) is the ongoing/relentless questioning, observation, and testing in the search of truth/knowledge... and to say were are there in the latter part of that definition - is a stretch at best... and dangerously arrogant at worst. JMO.

Public health policy is informed by science but also by other considerations. I do think the consensus has evolved based on research and analysis. And I do think sometimes difficult priority choices have to be made in policymaking. But that still doesn't justify misleading the public (if that did indeed happen on purpose).

 

[mb504]

Well, this is not good news for Louisiana. Looks like a big surge in positive cases today. It may just be due to the increased number of tests being reported and Tuesday often being a day when a backlog of tests are reported, but still worth keeping and eye on:

Edit: Damn, it's Wednesday. Apparently I lost track of days.


View: https://twitter.com/NOLAnews/status/1260616989476827136?s=20

The article has been updated since you posted. The increased positives (over 300) are old results from a private testing lab or labs that had not been previously submitting results to the State.

 

[St. Widge]

The article has been updated since you posted. The increased positives (over 300) are old results from a private testing lab or labs that had not been previously submitting results to the State.

Well, that does sound better. In the short term, it's going to make it really hard to interpret the numbers in any meaningful way with a large increase in testing and sources for the testing. But more testing is obviously better and I'm sure it will normalize at some point.

 

[B4YOU]

I think you are discounting the change in the attitude of our society

A manufacturing/production based society has a very different outlook for sacrificing for the good of others as compared to a consumer/consumption based society

I think you are discounting the effects of fear, uncertainty, unemployment, telework, and disease. American demand is both shifting and decreasing while savings rates climb. Necessity and a shared threat changes attitudes.

Americans are hoarding cash: Savings rate hits its highest level since 1981

Americans are so nervous about the state of the economy that they are stashing cash in the bank at a rate unseen since the early part of Ronald Reagan's first term as president.

www.google.com

Shoppers begin to shift from stockpiling to penny pinching at the grocery store

Customers' grocery shopping patterns may look different from prior economic downturns, though, since people are juggling health concerns along with budget-consciousness.

www.cnbc.com

 

[St. Widge]

I think you are discounting the effects of fear, uncertainty, unemployment, telework, and disease. American demand is both shifting and decreasing while savings rates climb. Necessity and a shared threat changes attitudes.

Americans are hoarding cash: Savings rate hits its highest level since 1981

Americans are so nervous about the state of the economy that they are stashing cash in the bank at a rate unseen since the early part of Ronald Reagan's first term as president.

www.google.com

Shoppers begin to shift from stockpiling to penny pinching at the grocery store

Customers' grocery shopping patterns may look different from prior economic downturns, though, since people are juggling health concerns along with budget-consciousness.

www.cnbc.com

I'm not sure that this is the thread for this, but I have noticed that the price of food has really shot up in the last two months. I know I'm buying a little more food to cook at home than usual, but my grocery bill has gone up probably $100 per week and I have one less person in the house to feed since my 85 year-old mother who used to live with me, moved up to my brother's cabin in North Carolina to get away from the Rona.

If fact, they linked this article on rising grocery prices in one of the articles you posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-...s-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html

So, I wonder if higher prices are part of why people are buying more off brands and store brands?

 

[DaveXA]

I think you are discounting the change in the attitude of our society

A manufacturing/production based society has a very different outlook for sacrificing for the good of others as compared to a consumer/consumption based society

Maybe, I guess time will tell. I just think we're a bit more resilient than people sometimes give us credit for.

 

[DaveXA]

The article has been updated since you posted. The increased positives (over 300) are old results from a private testing lab or labs that had not been previously submitting results to the State.

I guess the question i have is do those numbers get added to the rolling window for determining whether to reopen or not. It matters greatly whether these numbers were from a week ago compared to say a month ago.

 

[James Spader]

Hey Brennan - I'd like to hear more perspective on why this data collection concerns you. Just trying to understand why you, like many others, are so concerned about this. Maybe I am missing something. Heck, most restaurants I go to these days require a reservation, and I am already giving them this data.

From my viewpoint, the government already collects or has access to as much data on us as they need for any sort of deep state or privacy invasion conspiracy. Us giving them the assist here is simply about being able to quickly ascertain facts in the case of another outbreak, while also serving as a small mental reminder to people that life outside of the house is not to be treated like everything is fine and normal.

All valid points. I probably just won’t eat out really at all. I do wonder what happens next after this, what will it be? Will I need a vaccine paper on person at all times?

 

[superchuck500]

Pretty good summary of the current thinking on the R0 value we're seeing for SARS2. Early estimates were that it was somewhere between 2 and 4. It is now believed to be between 5 and 6.

That's very high. For comparison, seasonal flu is about 1.3, the H1N1 outbreak was about 1.5, and the 1918 pandemic was believed to be no higher than 2.8. Measles, on the other hand, can be as high as 15. Keep in mind that R0 values aren't purely intrinsic to the virus, they also depend on environmental and behavioral factors (so it can vary by locality).

If [R0 value being approx. 5.7] true, this has several important implications, beginning with the concept of herd immunity. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficiently large percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, either through infection or vaccination, with the result that transmission no longer occurs readily, thus protecting even those who are not immune. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, reports suggesting that herd immunity will be achieved when 55 percent of the population is immune assume that the R0 of the virus is 2.2. If the R0 is 5.7 instead, then 82 percent of the population must acquire immunity—because the higher the reproductive number, the larger the immune population must be to halt the spread of the disease. An R0 of 5.7 rather than 2.2 would require billions more doses of vaccine globally—or, if herd immunity is achieved only through infection, millions of excess deaths worldwide.

Another implication of a higher reproduction number is that seasonality—which, if applicable to SARS-CoV-2, is estimated (based on studies of other coronaviruses) to reduce transmission by about 20 percent during the summer—will not lower the R0 to a range anywhere near 1.

Could the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 be double early estimates? | Harvard Magazine

A critical scientific question that bears on policies for fighting the pandemic

www.harvardmagazine.com

See also

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.

www.healthline.com

 

[Arathrael]

Yep... but Like I said... either the "science" has changed in a couple months' time, so the recommendation was changed... or it was a very public Lie being told at the highest levels in March/April to limit the public wearing / hoarding / purchasing of masks...
...
Science (by definition) is the ongoing/relentless questioning, observation, and testing in the search of truth/knowledge... and to say were are there in the latter part of that definition - is a stretch at best... and dangerously arrogant at worst. JMO.

Public health policy is informed by science but also by other considerations. I do think the consensus has evolved based on research and analysis. And I do think sometimes difficult priority choices have to be made in policymaking. But that still doesn't justify misleading the public (if that did indeed happen on purpose).

Right. And I don't think it did happen.

I think part of the problem is misunderstanding the basis for giving recommendations from a medical/scientific point of view. It is not the same as it is from a casual "sounds like it should work" point of view.

Because from a medical point of view, there's the precept of "first, do no harm". To know whether recommending something will do harm, you need evidence; is it helpful, is it harmful. Not does it sound like it should be one or the other. Is there actual evidence?

And when you have something like considering whether to recommend masks for this specific situation, you do have the possibility of harm, both from taking masks away from priority workers - which they were explicit about - and from the known possibility of greater exposure through misuse of a mask (e.g. handling incorrectly, touching face more frequently) and inadvertently driving more reckless behaviour (e.g. people exposing themselves to higher loads of virus despite wearing a mask due to ignoring social distancing and exposing themselves to more crowded situations). Against that, there isn't much evidence to support it being effective. Hence, the recommendation has generally been to keep medical masks for those who need them, and to not make a recommendation for wearing masks for others. That is in line with the evidence. No misleading involved.

All of those factors have been explicitly addressed by those offering advice. If you take a look at the WHO advice on masks, for example, it's all there.

That said, I think what has been changing is that the evidence that COVID-19 spreads from non-asymptomatic individuals and through breathing in exhalations has been increasingly building up, which shifts weight towards the possible benefits of non-medical masks for healthy individuals as a mechanism for reducing that transmission path, which is one reason why I think we're seeing a shift towards recommending masks in the community, despite the lack of well-evaluated evidence showing a benefit.

From that point of view - which is also my own - I would absolutely recommend wearing a mask. And I personally think the public health policy - as distinct from the purely scientific point of view - should have adopted that earlier, and emphasised both education in how to correctly use masks, and the importance of maintaining all other precautions (distancing, hygiene, etc.) to address the possible counter-productive elements of recommending mask use.

But if you look, it's completely clear why the scientific medical view has been, and is, what it is.

 

[St. Geezy]

All valid points. I probably just won’t eat out really at all. I do wonder what happens next after this, what will it be? Will I need a vaccine paper on person at all times?

But why?

I am trying to find out what the harm here is for you personally.

 

[superchuck500]

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

The STAT tracker looks pretty slick to me. (STAT is a medical research and news publication out of Boston).

Their case graphic (for US or state by state) is demonstrative as it shows total cases and daily new cases - which is going to be the most important metric going forward.

The Covid-19 Tracker

As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.

www.statnews.com

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Pretty good summary of the current thinking on the R0 value we're seeing for SARS2. Early estimates were that it was somewhere between 2 and 4. It is now believed to be between 5 and 6.

That's very high. For comparison, seasonal flu is about 1.3, the H1N1 outbreak was about 1.5, and the 1918 pandemic was believed to be no higher than 2.8. Measles, on the other hand, can be as high as 15. Keep in mind that R0 values aren't purely intrinsic to the virus, they also depend on environmental and behavioral factors (so it can vary by locality).

Could the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 be double early estimates? | Harvard Magazine

A critical scientific question that bears on policies for fighting the pandemic

www.harvardmagazine.com

See also

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.

www.healthline.com

So, that's a bit concerning. It would mean that much tighter controls would be needed to effectively contain it.