ESPN Early Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

[REALCHRISM]

By the way, if the draft did fall the way that McShay has it, the pick is simple. You take Kenny Phillips and get ready to focus on your second round pick. He would be the BPA on the board. You do not take Balmer just to fill a need. If you need a DT, a guy like Pat Sims or Frank Okam will be there in the second. Heck, Balmer could be there unless he become this year's Travis Johnson or Justin Harrell--second round talents who get pushed up into the first.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

No. Absolutely no. You have never heard of Balmer because his college production never matched his physical ability. You simply do not take at number 10 a player like this regardless of position or need or workout performance.

Given the first nine picks on the mock draft, a possibility is trading up to grab Ellis, or at 10 grabbing Clady at offensive tackle or Phillips.

In fact, as Realchrism suggests, if Baltimore wants a quarterback (or even a certain offensive player), it can easily trade down with the Saints because neither the Saints nor Cincinnati will pick a quarterback. Something to keep an eye on. It probably would mean giving up a third, but if Ellis is still on the board, I can see this happening.

 

[tenordas]

It's all guess-work at this point, of course, but I think I would become a hater of the Bengals were they to nab Sedrick Ellis right in front of us as he predicts. However, if they do, I don't really think out FO would have such a knee-jerk reaction as to grab a guy who'll probably last until the second round.
If Ellis is grabbed up, I'm guessing the Saints would tap Phillips or Rivers, neither of whom do I expect to last anywhere near as long as this guy predicts...but again, it's way too early to tell that. Players will fly up and down the ratings board over the next two and half months.

EDIT: On another note, I did not realize Miami is now running a 3-4 scheme. They may well pass on Dorsey because of that, but I would sure rather see him in a Fins uniform than playing for the Rams or the Atlanta Roadkill, especially do I NOT want to see Atlanta get him. This is a stupid question (I'm currently hitting myself on the head for even asking it), but just how much would it cost to trade up to #2 or #3 to grab Dorsey and keep him from becoming a in conference rival?

 

[ROUSTER]

Needs doesn't always = Picks.
It's all about BPA, with in reason.
There will be so many kids shooting up and down the charts in the coming months it will be hard to keep up with.

This year, anything could happen. Sitting at #10, I think a really good player will fall right into our lap.
There will always be some workout warrior that jumps into the top 10. Plus, I think a RB or 2 will as well. As Chris stated before, I could see Dorsey maybe falling a little. If he makes it anywhere close, I hope we go get him.
I wouldn't mind Gholston, Ellis, or Rivers either.

 

[Hollywoodrow70]

I agree with several of the replys and say that we swing a deal with the Ravens to get Ellis. That was the first thing I thought of when I read the mock. We could get Ellis in round 1 then turn to LB or CB in early round 2. There should be someone who fits those positions that drops down to the 2nd round.

 

[Conrad]

Balmer is a good player but not worth the 10th pick. If the draft comes out like that then the Saints should move down and stockpile picks.

Bad 10th pick!

 

[Conrad]

I agree with several of the replys and say that we swing a deal with the Ravens to get Ellis. That was the first thing I thought of when I read the mock. We could get Ellis in round 1 then turn to LB or CB in early round 2. There should be someone who fits those positions that drops down to the 2nd round.

If we trade up we won't have a 2nd round pick anymore.

There are no players on the Saints with any trade vale therefore we will have to deal picks, but we need to hold on and bring in multiple players.

 

[Nevimeister]

There will be so many kids shooting up and down the charts in the coming months it will be hard to keep up with.

Exactly. Want to see what Todd McShay's mock last Feb 15th looked like? (a month on from January where the picture should become more clear)

9. Miami (6-10)

Projected pick: +Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Branch would be a steal at No. 9 overall. At 6-foot-5, 330 pounds, he can play NT and/or DE in a 3-4 scheme, as well as DE in a 4-3 scheme. That type of versatility should be attractive to the Dolphins.

Dropped to the 2nd round

11. San Francisco (7-9)

Projected pick: +Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Jarrett is admittedly a reach at No. 11, but there’s a drop-off in overall talent after the top 10 prospects. Jarrett is a proven playmaker with extraordinary hand-eye coordination. He needs to run well to sneak into the top 15. Jarrett would be a fine young weapon for QB Alex Smith.

14th pick of the 2nd round

21. Denver (9-7)

Projected pick: +Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
The Broncos have needs at safety, wide receiver and running back, but none is more pressing than the need for an impact pass-rushing defensive end. With four Day 1 picks, the Broncos are prime candidates to move up in the first round. If they stay at No. 21, Johnson has the quickness and relentlessness to help the cause.

Mid 3rd round pick

22. Dallas (9-7)

Projected pick: Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
The Cowboys could go with the top defensive back with this pick. Nelson would be ideal. If he’s gone, the team could draft a cornerback and move Anthony Henry to free safety. Hughes stood out as the best cover corner at this year’s Senior Bowl, but must answer questions regarding his top-end speed.

Went with the last alotted pick of the 3rd round (there were a few conmpensatory picks after)

28. New England (12-4)

Projected pick: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel are not getting any younger. Willis is instinctive, tough, quick and versatile enough to earn a starting job as a rookie, which would allow Vrabel to move back to his more natural outside linebacker position.

Went 11th and won defensive rookie of the year

Also Levi Brown was #14 in McShay's mock (went 5th), Adam Carricker was 25th (went 13th)

Also

32. Indianapolis (12-4)

Projected pick: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
The Colts could go in a number of different directions with this pick, including an athletic inside linebacker such as Florida’s Brandon Siler. However, Harrell could be a steal late in the first round, if he checks out physically after suffering a season-ending biceps tear as a senior. He’s the type of quick and aggressive interior player the Colts will be looking for throughout this year’s draft.

Harrell went 16th and Brandon Siler who crept into some mocks in the 1st round was a 7th round draft pick by San Diego - the 240th overall

http://sooners.wordpress.com/2007/02/15/mock-draft-feb-15th-todd-mcshay-espncom/

 

[Nevimeister]

TMQ does a good job of explaining the nonsense of predicting the draft, mocks and how they change

This year Kiper issued no fewer than six formal mock drafts, plus made innumerable predictions on ESPN television and radio, combining wrong predictions -- "I don't want to say it's 100 percent certain, but it's more than likely the Detroit Lions aren't keeping the second pick" -- with constant self-contradiction. Consider Kiper on Brady Quinn. Throughout fall 2006, Quinn was the top-ranked collegiate on Kiper's "Big Board." In early January, after the Raiders qualified for the first choice and after JaMarcus Russell bested Quinn in the Sugar Bowl, Kiper opined, "Brady Quinn should be a lock to land in Oakland." (Russell at that point had not declared, but was expected to.) In February, Kiper made Russell the likely first choice, saying JaMarcus had "a better body of work and stronger performances in big games." But Kiper already had seen Quinn's and Russell's games when he said Quinn was better! In mocks, Kiper had Quinn selected second by Detroit, third by Cleveland, seventh by Minnesota, ninth by Miami. Midwinter, Kiper turned against Quinn, saying, "He didn't play his best against the elite teams. Against the elite competition he struggled." Then in April, Kiper started to like Quinn again, calling him "at his best in pressure situations." On draft day, Kiper declared, "They say Quinn didn't perform well in big games, but that's not true," and Kiper proceeded to narrate clips of Quinn performing well against elite competition. He added, "Quinn's problem at Notre Dame is that he didn't have the best players around him." So Quinn failed in big games and succeeded in big games and was the best player in college and also a letdown and anyway his teammates were to blame. And yes, we were all surprised when Quinn slid to 22nd -- I don't claim to understand it. Anyway for the record, here's Mel before the draft: "There's no chance of [Quinn] falling out of the top 10. It's not going to happen."

Kiper on Greg Olsen in February: "He'll be there as a second-round pick. I don't think he played well enough to be a first-round pick." Then the Miami tight end's stock rose when he aced his combine appearance. After the combine, Kiper projected Olsen to go to Chicago at the 31st pick. By March, Kiper began projecting Olsen into the middle of the first round, saying Olsen has "great hands and is very athletic … he's the complete package." Asked in a chat if Olsen could last till the Bears at 31, Kiper answered, "No chance now. That's not going to happen." By draft day, Kiper rated Olsen the 11th-best performer available. Kiper had Olsen rocketing up from a guy who didn't play very well to a lottery pick, and the gentleman did not appear in a single game during this period! Kiper should have stayed with his instincts: Olsen went late in the first, at the 31st selection, to Chicago.

In different mocks, Kiper had the Cowboys using their first pick on Aaron Ross or Robert Meacham or Reggie Nelson or Dwayne Jarrett or Dwayne Bowe; they chose Anthony Spencer. Kiper had the Saints using their first choice on Chris Houston or Darrelle Revis or Daymeion Hughes or Ross. New Orleans took Meacham, while Hughes, whom Mel also projected as a first-round choice of New England, wasn't picked until Round 3. In February, Kiper said quarterback John Beck would go no higher than the fourth round, while quarterback Kevin Kolb would go no higher than the fifth; then in mocks, Kiper had Beck drafted in the second round and Kolb in the third. (Both went in the second.) Shortly before the draft, Mel offered weirdly specific forecasts such as, "If John Beck and Trent Edwards are still on the board after the first round, the Lions will take one of them with the second pick in the second round." Both were on the board when it was the Lions' turn with the second choice in the second round, and Detroit traded the pick. Kiper said Houston would select a cornerback in the first round, either Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis, and "if both Hall and Revis are available at Houston's turn, it will be interesting to see" which of the two the Texans picked. Both were available, and Houston took neither. Just before draft day, Kiper said Buffalo would chose Patrick Willis in the first round and Antonio Pittman in the second round; neither happened. Kiper projected Pittman to be the third tailback chosen; he was the 10th chosen. Mel projected Brigham Young tight end Jonny Harline as a third-round choice; he wasn't chosen at all. Of course Kiper's predictions were right on many points: He had the Ravens taking Ben Grubbs and the Colts taking Anthony Gonzalez, for instance. But if you predict practically every outcome, you'll be right sometimes by chance! In mocks or interviews, Kiper had Alan Branch going sixth to Washington or 11th to San Francisco or 13th to St. Louis or 21st to Denver or 23rd to Kansas City or 25th to the Jets; as the defensive tackle's stock declined, Mel said Branch was "too physically gifted to slide out of the first round." Branch lasted till the second round. Here's my favorite Mel moment of 2007. Ten days before the draft, he forecast Courtney Taylor as a third-round choice. Late Sunday afternoon, with only diehard draftniks still tuned in, Taylor went in the sixth round. "Some people had Taylor as a third-round choice, but he lacks speed," Kiper said.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/070501&sportCat=nfl

 

[HemiDart]

I don't care who he is, what his pedigree is, what his potential is, combine numbers, tangibles, intangibles, etc., etc.; having a draft bio that includes the name Jonathan Sullivan excludes any player from consideration.

 

[MLU]

Dear Scouts, Inc.,

What did we get when we traded Jonathan Sullivan away and who did we trade him to? Also, where were we when this happened? Did you happen to be at the ensuing party? Was it a good one?

Signed,
New Orleans Saints Fans

 

[Phenomkart35]

Projected pick: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

Take a chance on a potential shutdown cornerback in McKelvin. He has excellent speed and can also be a contributor in the return game, and McKelvin held his own against big-time competition this season.

We need to start somewhere

 

[AARPSaint]

A lot of us are impatient to get the free agency and draft moving, so we're indulging in wild speculation. The draft is a loooooong way away, and free agency not much closer. All of these mock drafts are interesting but almost worthless IMHO. They are certainly based on need, but what else can you base an informed opinion on?

Once the draft gets started, then thinigs fall into place, and some choices fall in strange ways. And, the draft is preceded by free agency, which can change a team's needs in a hurry. For instance, had Drew Brees not been signed, wouldn't it have been likely that the Saints would have gone for a QB two years ago?

It's very, very difficult to sit around wondering what will happen in the offseason.

 

[WhoDATX512]

I was looking at these mock drafts on this forum and I kind of liked this idea of trading down with the Cowboys. They have us sending our #10 pick to the girls for their 2 1st rounders as well as switching 5th rounders.

I don't think Frank Okam currently is a 1st rounder but I think we could find some good value at the end of the 1st round. Here is the link

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=188951