Article Exploring How the Saints Could Trade Up for Cam Ward

[Saintly Marine]

Since the speculation started, I think about what it would cost the Saints to move up and select Miami's Cam Ward with the top pick. Here's what I came up with. Enjoy!!

Exploring Saints Trade-Up Scenarios for Top Pick Cam Ward

It’s always interesting to see how stories can start a life of their own based on what has been said by certain people, especially regarding the New Orleans Saints. Last Monday, former Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward received the Manning Award, which is presented in the city of New...

sportsview360.com

Disclaimer: This is pure speculation by me; I give it a 30% chance of happening.

I thought the DITKA Trade was the 1st Bulletin mentioning WHAT NOT TO DO ON DRAFT DAY?

 

[Saintly Marine]

And it gets even uglier when you get out of the first round. Fox Sports ran the numbers already. Until find your franchise QB you need to keep drafting one because the QB purgatory we've been stuck in sucks. Not good enough to win a playoff game but not bad enough to land a top 3 picks.

We're also not talking about letting Dennis Allen trade up to #1 overall to find his QB. We're talking about a brilliant offensive mind and former QB trading up. If he thinks Ward is worth it then chances are he's worth it. Most QB's bust because they are going to a system that doesn't fit them or they aren't mature enough to handle it. We don't have to worry about the system with Moore and they're doing their HW to figure out the maturity question but that's supposed to be a positive with him.

Now that is a Logical and very Thought out reply. Agree, However, Cost vs future ..Is the present going to have more value than the future. If we all knew that. MICKEY would perhaps hold more draft picks.

 

[BELOWSEALEVEL]

I see the compensation is basically Davenport and the Turner debacles.
Add a 2nd pick and a third and we got it.
Technically it's only 2 first rounders since the 3rd first rounder is the swap from 9 to 1 .
Its doable and franchise changing if it works.
The draft is a gamble my friends

 

[DerrickB]

I thought the DITKA Trade was the 1st Bulletin mentioning WHAT NOT TO DO ON DRAFT DAY?

Nah

 

[TruSaint]

Honestly, screw it. Trade up and go get this kid. I’m ready for something to be excited about and no one besides Jeanty at 9 really does it for me. Team Cam.

 

[ilvdsnts]

There is a recent template for moving from 9 to 1. 2 years ago Car moved up from 9 to 1, this is what Chic got:

“The full package of assets sent to Chicago reads like a shopping list: the ninth-overall pick this year, a second-round selection in 2023 (No. 61 overall originally from the 49ers), a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025, and Moore, a receiver who just completed the first year of a three-year, $61.88 million contract with the Panthers.”

Thats way too much for any QB in this year’s draft, IMHO.

 

[Tulsa Saint]

Honestly, screw it. Trade up and go get this kid. I’m ready for something to be excited about and no one besides Jeanty at 9 really does it for me. Team Cam.

It would just be sickening to stay put and draft one of these

Mykel Williams
Shemar Stewart
Will Campbell
Will Johnson

Or an off the wall guy

That right there would be a complete waste of a first on par with(or worse) than Payton Turner.

I’d rather a sure thing especially at QB than those guys plus more Foskeys and Millers.

 

[StudioSaint]

You also don't see teams without a good QB on that list. Even Flacco and Foles who aren't elite had amazing runs to get to the Super Bowl with each winning Super Bowl MVP. You're simply not winning anything without a QB.

You're also not screwed if you trade up and fail. The 49ers gave up 3 first round picks and a 3rd to get Trey Lance. Completely whiffed and played in the Superbowl 2-3 years later.

What you and Systemshock are showing is that there isn't any significant statistical correlation between when a QB is drafted and a team winning the the Super Bowl. Top 10 drafted QB's don't have a statistically higher correlation than QB's not drafted in the top 10 and vice versa.

You have to have a good QB, but you're just as likely to find a good enough QB outside of the top 10 picks as you will find one inside the top 10 picks. If you have a top 10 pick, great. If you don't have a top 10 pick, you don't have to use up extra resources to get into the top 10 to draft a QB.

It's not truly a "top 10 or bust" situation like so many seem to think it is.

 

[StudioSaint]

Well never gonna find another franchise QB through Free Agency so might be a bust but gotta roll the dice since we always teeter tottng with making the playoffs , so gonna have to trade up to get one eventually

A team doesn't have to trade into the top 10 to draft a QB good enough to contribute to a Super Bowl win.

 

[StudioSaint]

Even if he WAS Daniels 2.0 3 first round picks is not worth it.

We don't have a talented roster to begin with. Commanders could take that hit. Very real chance our next 3 frps are all top 10.

It also remains to be seen how competitive the Commanders are after this year. The Bengals got to the Super Bowl once early on with Burrow. They've not been doing very well since then. They didn't even have to give away extra picks in the draft. The same thing happened with the Dolphins and Marino.

If the goal is to build a long term competitive team, trading a bunch of high picks to trade into the top 10 is not the best route to go. It may help for a year or two, but those lost picks start to adversely affect the over all team and Super Bowls are won by at least 22 players, not a single QB.

 

[StudioSaint]

Bradshaw 1970 1.1
Griese 1967 1.4
McMahon 1982 1.5
Simms 1979 1.7
Aikman 1989 1.1

5 QB's from before free agency started. Before 1993, you either had to draft them or trade for them. Also, pre-1978, the regular season was 14 games.

Need a comparison of how many QB's, drafted in the top 10 during that same time period, that never got close to winning a Super Bowl to get any meaningful statistical comparison.

Also, need a comparison of how many Super Bowls during that period, 1967 to 1989, were won by QB's drafted in the top 10 and QB's not drafted in the top 10. That's the only way to get any meaningful statistical comparison. Can't just look at the Super Bowls won by top 10 drafted QB's. That's not meaningful data without a comparison.

 

[StudioSaint]

Football games aren't played with no rush and no defensive pass coverage.

 

[StudioSaint]

Does trading up magically make the player worse?

No more than drafting them in the top 10 magically makes them better.

What the data suggests is that the cost to a team to trade up to get a top 10 QB cancels out any advantage gain by getting a QB in the top 10, because it negatively impacts the overall quality of the team. Teams win and lose games collectively, the QB does not win or lose games all by themselves.

 

[saint_drago]

Ive alway liked Cam Ward. Been posting about him in last 2 drafts. I think he can be really good, especially w/a coach like Kellen Moore. I wouldnt be mad if we made that trade. I think Ward’s skillset is very comparable to Jalen Hurts. Hurts is the better runner, but Ward is a better passer & has a better arm.

Honestly, i also wouldnt be mad if we moved up for Abdul Carter, either. I personally think he’s the best player in this draft class. A lot of people are hyping Travis Hunter & Jeanty, but the dude who’s a true unicorn is Abdul Carter. That dude kills as a LB, kills as an EDGE, & he hasnt even scratched the surface yet.

I don't know about trading up for anybody but Carter can flat out play. A lot of these guys you don't really know that much about them. A lot of people watch highlight tapes on YouTube, read draft breakdowns, and then form a strong, unwavering, semi-expert, barely informed opinion about a prospect. They'll pound the table for their guy. They'll argue and debate and say, "The Saints made a massive mistake when they passed on Taco Charlton!".

We've all been there. Most of the time we go to bat for these guys just because they have a name that sounds cool. Like Smoke Monday. Out of nowhere everyone had Smoke Monday takes. Bold statements flying left and right. Don't be surprised if he's starting opening day! What?

I say all of that to say this, I've watched Carter's entire career. He's been a monster. I think his game translates to the next level. He's not an athlete playing football. He's a ball player who happens to be super athletic.

 

[StudioSaint]

It would just be sickening to stay put and draft one of these

Mykel Williams
Shemar Stewart
Will Campbell
Will Johnson

Or an off the wall guy

That right there would be a complete waste of a first on par with(or worse) than Payton Turner.

I’d rather a sure thing especially at QB than those guys plus more Foskeys and Millers.

But at least the Saints would only be "wasting" one first round pick and not multiple first round picks and other high picks. Some players do better than expected, so teams never know. Just like teams don't know if Ward will work out either.

It's not a question of is Ward good or not. It's a question of is he so much better of a risk than other players, including other QB's, that he's worth "wasting" all of those picks on if he doesn't work out?

As to the idea of "I’d rather a sure thing especially at QB," there are no sure things in the draft. There never has been and there never will be. When trading a lot of picks to pick a single player, a responsible team will ask itself "how much draft capital is this player worth possibly losing?" If they assume the player will absolutely work out, then they are taking a bad approach to the draft.

Every player can bust, so a team has to make sure they can live with the lost draft capital if that player busts.

The Saints seem to have done just that. The story is that they spoke with the Titans about what it would cost them and they decided that what they'd have to give up to the Titans wasn't worth the risk and moved on. It doesn't mean they don't love Ward if they don't trade up to 1 to get him. It only means the price for Ward was too high and would have been too much of a detriment to the team overall.

Only a poorly run team would give up "whatever it takes" to get one player. The Saints aren't that team anymore. There's always a chance that the Titans lower their asking price, but it's doubtful the Saints raise their offer.