Article Exploring How the Saints Could Trade Up for Cam Ward

[Snakehead]

Reminds me a little of donovan mcnabb.

Love the McNabb comp. McNabb was 6'2" 240lbs, Ward is ~6'2" 220lbs. He's sturdy and strong, with his arm and movement, he should be able to play for a long time.

 

[DerrickB]

 

[gregh]

sorry but Ward isnt some kind of generational talent that they should give up so much for, thats alot of potential cheap starters at alot of positions..

 

[JackDiesel]

sorry but Ward isnt some kind of generational talent that they should give up so much for, thats alot of potential cheap starters at alot of positions..

And none of it means anything without a franchise QB.

The question shouldn't be if we're trading up for a QB but when. If it doesn't happen this year then it's happening next year.

 

[SystemShock]

this site lists the 1st rounders over the past 15 years: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...years-from-justin-fields-to-mark-sanchez/amp/

There have been 46 1st rounders. Of that group 15% were “home runs”, 6% were “solid”, with the rest being anywhere from “mixed results” to “busts”. So that is less than a 25% chance of one truly panning out. So your data on trade ups isn’t surprising considering the overall numbers. When looking at the “home run” and “solid” groups, here are the number per draft position:

#1- lllll
#5- l
#6- l
#7- l
#12- l
#32- l

So, eight of the eleven were top 10 picks. Five of the eleven were #1 overall. The probability of a “home run” and “solid” QB from a #1 overall pick is 5 out of 10 (50%). And the lists of disappointments included Bradford who wasn’t bad but career was derailed by injury, Winston who has managed to stay in the league a long time, Darnold who is a starting QB, Mayfield who is a starting QB, and Goff who is a starting QB. Certainly better odds than a random 1st rounder. And when you are looking beyond the 1st round, you might as well be playing lotto.

So, I think you’re looking at it wrong. Look at the players selected #1, which is where Ward is likely to be selected. You’ll see that it’s definitely the highest likelihood of returns. You have to play to win. Right now, Carr/Rattler is a losing hand. I’m not sure that Ward is a winning hand, but certainly the odds are better than Carr/Rattler, and better than anything we would have at #9.

There goes the goal post.

I am looking at it from the thread title, i.e., trading up for a QB, not just picking a QB, but trading up for a QB, and the numbers on trading up for a QB speak for themselves.

Darnold is on his 5th team. He had 1 good year last year. That's it.
Winston is on his 4th team.
Mayfield is on his 3rd team.
Goff is on his 2nd.

... i.e., they did not work out for the team that drafted them.

 

[sammymvpknight]

There goes the goal post.

I am looking at it from the thread title, i.e., trading up for a QB, not just picking a QB, but trading up for a QB, and the numbers on trading up for a QB speak for themselves.

Darnold is on his 5th team. He had 1 good year last year. That's it.
Winston is on his 4th team.
Mayfield is on his 3rd team.
Goff is on his 2nd.

... i.e., they did not work out for the team that drafted them.

Does trading up magically make the player worse? I’m sorry but that doesn’t make sense. It’s far more likely that most trade-ups don’t involve the #1 pick. And as you can see above…there isn’t a 100% hit rate, but the rate is never going to be 100% for any pick. Heck…look at our recent history of 1st rounders. And the upside (and relative hit rate) is high…as I’ve pointed out.

 

[Saintly Marine]

Since the speculation started, I think about what it would cost the Saints to move up and select Miami's Cam Ward with the top pick. Here's what I came up with. Enjoy!!

Exploring Saints Trade-Up Scenarios for Top Pick Cam Ward

It’s always interesting to see how stories can start a life of their own based on what has been said by certain people, especially regarding the New Orleans Saints. Last Monday, former Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward received the Manning Award, which is presented in the city of New...

sportsview360.com

Disclaimer: This is pure speculation by me; I give it a 30% chance of happening.

I thought the DITKA Trade was the 1st Bulletin mentioning WHAT NOT TO DO ON DRAFT DAY?

 

[Saintly Marine]

And it gets even uglier when you get out of the first round. Fox Sports ran the numbers already. Until find your franchise QB you need to keep drafting one because the QB purgatory we've been stuck in sucks. Not good enough to win a playoff game but not bad enough to land a top 3 picks.

We're also not talking about letting Dennis Allen trade up to #1 overall to find his QB. We're talking about a brilliant offensive mind and former QB trading up. If he thinks Ward is worth it then chances are he's worth it. Most QB's bust because they are going to a system that doesn't fit them or they aren't mature enough to handle it. We don't have to worry about the system with Moore and they're doing their HW to figure out the maturity question but that's supposed to be a positive with him.

Now that is a Logical and very Thought out reply. Agree, However, Cost vs future ..Is the present going to have more value than the future. If we all knew that. MICKEY would perhaps hold more draft picks.

 

[BELOWSEALEVEL]

I see the compensation is basically Davenport and the Turner debacles.
Add a 2nd pick and a third and we got it.
Technically it's only 2 first rounders since the 3rd first rounder is the swap from 9 to 1 .
Its doable and franchise changing if it works.
The draft is a gamble my friends

 

[DerrickB]

I thought the DITKA Trade was the 1st Bulletin mentioning WHAT NOT TO DO ON DRAFT DAY?

Nah

 

[TruSaint]

Honestly, screw it. Trade up and go get this kid. I’m ready for something to be excited about and no one besides Jeanty at 9 really does it for me. Team Cam.

 

[ilvdsnts]

There is a recent template for moving from 9 to 1. 2 years ago Car moved up from 9 to 1, this is what Chic got:

“The full package of assets sent to Chicago reads like a shopping list: the ninth-overall pick this year, a second-round selection in 2023 (No. 61 overall originally from the 49ers), a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025, and Moore, a receiver who just completed the first year of a three-year, $61.88 million contract with the Panthers.”

Thats way too much for any QB in this year’s draft, IMHO.

 

[Tulsa Saint]

Honestly, screw it. Trade up and go get this kid. I’m ready for something to be excited about and no one besides Jeanty at 9 really does it for me. Team Cam.

It would just be sickening to stay put and draft one of these

Mykel Williams
Shemar Stewart
Will Campbell
Will Johnson

Or an off the wall guy

That right there would be a complete waste of a first on par with(or worse) than Payton Turner.

I’d rather a sure thing especially at QB than those guys plus more Foskeys and Millers.

 

[StudioSaint]

You also don't see teams without a good QB on that list. Even Flacco and Foles who aren't elite had amazing runs to get to the Super Bowl with each winning Super Bowl MVP. You're simply not winning anything without a QB.

You're also not screwed if you trade up and fail. The 49ers gave up 3 first round picks and a 3rd to get Trey Lance. Completely whiffed and played in the Superbowl 2-3 years later.

What you and Systemshock are showing is that there isn't any significant statistical correlation between when a QB is drafted and a team winning the the Super Bowl. Top 10 drafted QB's don't have a statistically higher correlation than QB's not drafted in the top 10 and vice versa.

You have to have a good QB, but you're just as likely to find a good enough QB outside of the top 10 picks as you will find one inside the top 10 picks. If you have a top 10 pick, great. If you don't have a top 10 pick, you don't have to use up extra resources to get into the top 10 to draft a QB.

It's not truly a "top 10 or bust" situation like so many seem to think it is.