Article Exploring How the Saints Could Trade Up for Cam Ward

[bayoumilitia]

Carr can’t be traded until after June 1.
Before June, a Carr trade would be a 58.4M dead money cap charge putting the Saints about -28 million over the cap.

Post 6/1, it’s 19.21M dead money/1.25M cap savings from a trade. Or $20.46M dead money, same as his current cap hit, from a release. Carr would be traded or released later in the offseason in a separate move if they go in that direction.

It’s crazy how that works but you’re 100% correct. “It’s cheaper to keep her”, well him until after June 1st in this case definitely. The difference is staggering.

 

[Bayareasaint]

LOL at 30% chance.

 

[sammymvpknight]

That's not the idea behind the Dilfer pic, it is to show that the other picks do matter, a lot.

There needs to be a balance. You can't give all your picks for a rookie QB, because no matter how good that QB is, and how good you think he's going to be in the pros, he is not going to win without a supporting cast. Picking a QB within the 1st 10 picks is no guarantee either. However, you can win with a decent QB and a good supporting cast, and you will definitely win more games with a decent QB with a good supporting cast than with a generational talent at QB with no supporting cast, defense included.

Out of curiosity, thinking of the Saints winning a SB with a FA QB, I went and looked at the last SB winners since the Saints won it with Brees; I was curious as to how many QBs picked within the first 10 picks have won SBs with the teams that drafted them since then. Then I figured, I'll do it since 2000, because why not, and to be fair to the guys who were drafted the last 5-6 years. After all, the SB is the ultimate goal, right?

Keeping in mind that Eli Manning was originally drafted by the Chargers, then traded to the Giants:

Out of the 26 SB winners, 7 teams won it with free agent QBs.

Only the Chiefs (Mahomes) and the Colts (P. Manning) have won SBs with the QB they drafted within the 1st 10 picks in the draft.

4 teams won it with the backup QB (Rams-Warner, Ravens-Dilfer, Eagles-Foles, Patriots-Brady, who was the backup to Drew Bledsoe in the 2001 season)

Out of 85 QB's picked in the 1st round, only 5 QBs have won SB's with the team that drafted them: Mahomes (10th overall), Flacco (18th overall) , Rodgers (24th overall), P. Manning (1st overall) and Roethlisberger (11th overall).

Here's the list:
2000 Rams Kurt Warner FA backup QB
2001 Ravens Trent Dilfer FA backup QB
2002 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall backup QB
2003 Bucs Brad Johnson FA
2004 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall
2005 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall
2006 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger 11th overall
2007 Colts Peyton Manning 1st overall
2008 Giants Eli Manning trade
2009 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger 11th overall
2010 Saints Drew Brees FA
2011 Packers Aaron Rodgers 24th overall
2012 Giants Eli Manning trade
2013 Ravens Joe Flacco 18th overall
2014 Seahawks Russell Wilson 3rd rd, 75th overall
2015 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall
2016 Broncos Peyton Manning FA
2017 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall
2018 Eagles Nick Foles 3rd rd, 88th overall, backup QB
2019 Patriots Tom Brady 6th rd, 199th overall
2020 Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 10th overall
2021 Buccaneers Tom Brady FA
2022 Rams Matthew Stafford FA
2023 Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 10th overall
2024 Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 10th overall
2025 Eagles Jalen Hurts 2nd rd 53rd overall

I see a ton of elite QBs on that list. The ones that were had elite defenses…and not just elite but all-time great types. Certainly, you can strive to build that’s type of elite defense but that’s not happening in the next three years. The easiest way to become elite is by hitting on an elite QB. Statistically that is much more likely to occur in the early rounds. You can find the Warners/Bradys out there but you are talking about perhaps the two biggest outliers in NFL history. This doesn’t typically happen by luck.

 

[SystemShock]

I see a ton of elite QBs on that list. The ones that were had elite defenses…and not just elite but all-time great types. Certainly, you can strive to build that’s type of elite defense but that’s not happening in the next three years. The easiest way to become elite is by hitting on an elite QB. Statistically that is much more likely to occur in the early rounds. You can find the Warners/Bradys out there but you are talking about perhaps the two biggest outliers in NFL history. This doesn’t typically happen by luck.

Yes, you see a ton of elite QBs on that list. What you don't see, is many that won SB's with the teams that gave the farm to get them within the 10 first pics in the draft.

Brady - 6th rounder, FA with the Bucs.
Brees - FA, no SB with Chargers, and was a 2nd rounder to begin with.
Warner - FA off the arena league
P. Manning - straight up 1st overall for the Colts, no trades, plus FA for the Broncos.
Rodgers - straight up 24th overall
Stafford - a correction here, I listed Stafford as FA, but he was part of a trade with the Rams; he was a well established, veteran NFL QB at the time, though.

Again, only 2 teams have won SBs with the QB they drafted within the 1st 10 picks. One is P. Manning, 1st overall, no trades; the other is Mahomes.

So, statistically speaking, it is better to not make the mistake of trading multiple picks (especially 1st rounders) for a QB who has not thrown a pass in the NFL.

I personally don't care about the "elite" label. I care about my team winning the SB. Elite, top 5, top grade... show me the trophy case.

 

[RJS]

Yes, you see a ton of elite QBs on that list. What you don't see, is many that won SB's with the teams that gave the farm to get them within the 10 first pics in the draft.

Brady - 6th rounder, FA with the Bucs.
Brees - FA, no SB with Chargers, and was a 2nd rounder to begin with.
Warner - FA off the arena league
P. Manning - straight up 1st overall for the Colts, no trades, plus FA for the Broncos.
Rodgers - straight up 24th overall
Stafford - a correction here, I listed Stafford as FA, but he was part of a trade with the Rams; he was a well established, veteran NFL QB at the time, though.

Again, only 2 teams have won SBs with the QB they drafted within the 1st 10 picks. One is P. Manning, 1st overall, no trades; the other is Mahomes.

So, statistically speaking, it is better to not make the mistake of trading multiple picks (especially 1st rounders) for a QB who has not thrown a pass in the NFL.

I personally don't care about the "elite" label. I care about my team winning the SB. Elite, top 5, top grade... show me the trophy case.

Wasn't Bradshaw the number one overall pick by the Steelers? Bob Griese with the Dolphins? Jim McMahon? Phil Simms? Troy Aikman?

Not including Elway or Eli is technically correct but seems like semantics.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Yes, you see a ton of elite QBs on that list. What you don't see, is many that won SB's with the teams that gave the farm to get them within the 10 first pics in the draft.

Brady - 6th rounder, FA with the Bucs.
Brees - FA, no SB with Chargers, and was a 2nd rounder to begin with.
Warner - FA off the arena league
P. Manning - straight up 1st overall for the Colts, no trades, plus FA for the Broncos.
Rodgers - straight up 24th overall
Stafford - a correction here, I listed Stafford as FA, but he was part of a trade with the Rams; he was a well established, veteran NFL QB at the time, though.

Again, only 2 teams have won SBs with the QB they drafted within the 1st 10 picks. One is P. Manning, 1st overall, no trades; the other is Mahomes.

So, statistically speaking, it is better to not make the mistake of trading multiple picks (especially 1st rounders) for a QB who has not thrown a pass in the NFL.

I personally don't care about the "elite" label. I care about my team winning the SB. Elite, top 5, top grade... show me the trophy case.

The sample size is also really small for trade ups. How many QBs were drafted over the past 20 years that involved significant trades?

 

[JackDiesel]

Yes, you see a ton of elite QBs on that list. What you don't see, is many that won SB's with the teams that gave the farm to get them within the 10 first pics in the draft.

Brady - 6th rounder, FA with the Bucs.
Brees - FA, no SB with Chargers, and was a 2nd rounder to begin with.
Warner - FA off the arena league
P. Manning - straight up 1st overall for the Colts, no trades, plus FA for the Broncos.
Rodgers - straight up 24th overall
Stafford - a correction here, I listed Stafford as FA, but he was part of a trade with the Rams; he was a well established, veteran NFL QB at the time, though.

Again, only 2 teams have won SBs with the QB they drafted within the 1st 10 picks. One is P. Manning, 1st overall, no trades; the other is Mahomes.

So, statistically speaking, it is better to not make the mistake of trading multiple picks (especially 1st rounders) for a QB who has not thrown a pass in the NFL.

I personally don't care about the "elite" label. I care about my team winning the SB. Elite, top 5, top grade... show me the trophy case.

You also don't see teams without a good QB on that list. Even Flacco and Foles who aren't elite had amazing runs to get to the Super Bowl with each winning Super Bowl MVP. You're simply not winning anything without a QB.

You're also not screwed if you trade up and fail. The 49ers gave up 3 first round picks and a 3rd to get Trey Lance. Completely whiffed and played in the Superbowl 2-3 years later.

 

[texasjefe]

Remind me gain, which current Saint compares to Ray Lewis, Shannon Sharpe, Jamal Lewis, Tony Siragusa, Jonathan Ogden, Peter Boulware, etc...

Ozzie Newsome did some fine General Managing back in the day with talent.

We did sign Chris McCalister, and I see he played in two games, had a forced fumble, and 4 special teams tackles.

Adding - I did read your post clarifying your point.

My point is that I just don't think Cam Ward is worth selling the house and the land for. I would hope Kellen Moore has sat Mickey Loomis down and said no more Funkin Donuts with the Picks.

 

[Treybad]

Well never gonna find another franchise QB through Free Agency so might be a bust but gotta roll the dice since we always teeter tottng with making the playoffs , so gonna have to trade up to get one eventually

 

[tyler735]

I'm not into picking apart a post. So I'll just address a few things. You claim Ward didn't show any red flags, but tell me what good defenses he played against that would've forced red flags? Sanders didn't face any either and struggled against BYU and Nebraska. Ward may not have bombed out 1 single game, but he didn't face anyone either. How does he respond if his offensive line is getting dominated? We haven't a clue in 2024. In 2023 it wasn't good. He struggled a lot with an inferior oline. When they struggled, he struggled badly. Was there a play calling issue? gameplan issue? QB issue? Really hard to say. But in 2024 he was never tested in the sense of how he responds when his offense struggles. So it's folly to say "there's no red flags" when he has struggled whenever his offense as a whole didn't dominate the team in front of him and there wasn't a defense in 2024 to determine if he grew from that.

If this were true, then sure there may be an argument. However the real folly is to say he’s never tested/performed well against top competition.

Cam Ward played 9.5 games (he played half a game and dominated in the bowl game against Iowa State in 2024) against ranked teams during his entire time at Washington State and Miami.

In 9.5 games against ranked teams he had:

2,919 Passing Yards (307 passing yards per game)
25 Touchdowns (2.6 touchdowns per game)
6 Interceptions (.6 interceptions per game)

Over the past 2 seasons, he played 4.5 games against ranked teams. In those games he had:

1560 Passing yards (347 passing yards per game)
14 Touchdowns (3.1 touchdowns per game)
2 Interceptions (.4 interceptions per game)

In other words, if you average out his production against ranked competition over the past 2 seasons, his 13 game average would be:

4,511 Passing Yards
40 Passing Touchdowns
5 Interceptions

His opponents in those games were: Washington (Played in National Championship that year), Oregon (#9), Oregon State (#14), Wisconsin (#19), and Iowa State (#18)

I simply get an impression that Ward is being a bit overhyped by many, and he'll have some struggles adjusting to the NFL just like any rookie QB. But with Ward, theres cause for concern. He was on a very talented offense and was never truly put up against equal talent. So we don't know what those struggles to adjust will look like.

Yes that is pretty much standard that any young QB will have growing pains. As shown above, Ward had no issue putting up great production over his career against top competition. One of Ward's greatest attributes is how composed and calm he is under pressure. Plenty of top tier traits for him to be a great NFL QB. I don't mind the Saints taking a chance if Moore thinks he's the guy that he wants to work with at QB. This franchise is long overdue to take a chance on a QB high in the draft.

 

[DerrickB]

 

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

If Cam Ward was Jayden Daniels 2.0 then yes, but he is not. He’s a good QB but if he came out last year he would have been picked in the 2nd round. I would take a flyer later in the draft and look at next year when it’s supposed to be a better class at QB. Plus, we’re stuck with Carr for a year.

Even if he WAS Daniels 2.0 3 first round picks is not worth it.

We don't have a talented roster to begin with. Commanders could take that hit. Very real chance our next 3 frps are all top 10.

 

[St. Widge]

So it looks like the Titans are going to take Ward and it would take a crazy trade offer to get him. So, as much as I like Ward, I don't think we are in a position to get him for a trade that would make sense.

Hopefully Moore sees a 2nd to 4th round guy that he likes and thinks he can develop. Regardless of what anyone thinks about Carr, he only has one year left on his deal after this year at a crazy high salary, and he's about to be 34 so it's time to get a young QB in the building to develop if at all possible. We built an offensive staff to teach and develop young QBs, it's time to start adding more of those to the QB room. If not this year, then next year.

 

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

So it looks like the Titans are going to take Ward and it would take a crazy trade offer to get him. So, as much as I like Ward, I don't think we are in a position to get him for a trade that would make sense.

Good. Let's rebuild the roster first then jump for a QB.