PFF - have y'all seen this (1 Viewer)

[Rexman100]

I dang near spit out my water..lol.
Honestly, that's all I've been saying from the jump. Due to unbalanced reporting, we've come to believe that Carr is this major upgrade but the reality is there was never anything tangible to quantify or qualify that opinion, especially when you realize that we lost a lot of games because we could not convert in the red zone. No matter how folks want to slice it:


And this is all I've said. I'm not on the "it take weapons" train, as our 2021 squad consisted of nothing but UDFAs, Trautman, and Kamara and the first 5-6 games of the season, our RZ conversion rate was freaking 93%. I think it has more to do with coaching and the QB itself, because things change when you have a short field to work with. Even with our RZ conversion rate tanking mid season in 2021, it was still better than last season.

I'm hopeful that it can get turned around but I wouldn't bet my life on it.

I think everyone knows that scoring from the 20 is much harder than outside the 20. We had bend but don't break defenses for years under Payton to do just that. So im not sure about laying all the blame on the QB. I think we'll be fine when everyone's happy. But what's going to be telling, is if DA has any ability to will wins. To win an away game up North to stop a two game losing streak for example. Or to not go one and done in the playoffs because your team was overconfident. How many times did that happen? Now that he has his own team and no excuses, we'll see this years if he's the guy or not.

 

[Rouxble]

Using that same criteria, one QB is 1st in passer rating, 1st in completion percentage, 7th in TD percentage, and has the lowest interception percentage. He doesn’t have the passing plus rushing TD totals because he hasn’t played in two years, but he still managed to finish 19th overall in that category. Everyone knows who it is—Drew Brees.

 

[jahsoul357]

I understand your argument is likely based on the article you linked that specifically stated the last 5 seasons, but posting those conversion rates while leaving out Carr's first four seasons where he started every game except for 2 (one in 2016 and one in 2017) and they excelled in the redzone (when they actually did get there) seems a bit cherrypicked.

I was bored and had a little time before dinner, so I just looked up a few thing. Raw stats and high level metrics but here they are:

Brees (18-20)
--------------
146/209 - 69.9%
59TDs/1INT
Passer Rating: 116.31
TD Rate: 28.2%
Yards: 924

Winston (18-22)
------------------------
92/153 - 60.1%
49TD/3INT
Passer Rating: 104.2
TD Rate: 32%
758 yards

Dalton (18-22)
-----------------------
140/238 - 58.8%
53TD/8INT
Passer Rating:93.28
TD Rate:22.2%
Yards: 948

Carr
-------------------------
(14-17)
117/231 - 50.6%
66TDs/5INTs
Passer Rating:88.91
TD Rate: 28.6%
779 yards

(18-22)
191/359 - 53.2%
73TDs/10INTs
Passer Rating:88.07
TD Rate: 20.3%
1178 yards

Using that same criteria, one QB is 1st in passer rating, 1st in completion percentage, 7th in TD percentage, and has the lowest interception percentage. He doesn’t have the passing plus rushing TD totals because he hasn’t played in two years, but he still managed to finish 19th overall in that category. Everyone knows who it is—Drew Brees.

BOOM!!!

 

[TribuneUK]

 

[jahsoul357]

The fact that a lot of people had no idea how bad the red zone issue was kinda points at that.

 

[Rouxble]

Considering everything, we made the best possible moves to give our current coach, DA, a fair shot.. With that said, the worst case scenario is that DA totally fails and the team becomes rudderless by game 8. And at its worst point, DA and company cannot generate the confidence and motivation to right the ship. To be fair, It takes a special coach to be able to lead when the chips are down. So lets assume that its determined that we really need a head coach that takes control of the team and owns it. (Like SP owned the Saints) Considering we'd have Carr for a few more years, there's still a silver lining coach available to turn the ship around and lead a team for a decade. And that person has the MOST chemistry with Carr. Yep, if DA fails, the back up plan B: bring on Chucky! He'd be the complete coach we'd need. (ill admit that i havent looked at the evidence that got him fired, for the same reason i didnt watch Kamaras fight vid)

Carr was probably the best QB option leaving out a never-would’ve-happened trade for Rodgers, I’m not going to argue against that.

On DA, the more I think about it, the more he seems like a virtual lock to be our coach in 2024, barring a total team implosion in 2023. Carr left Vegas to get away from the never ending coaching changes and lack of stability, so I’m having a hard time believing we will fire the coach that played a big role in Carr joining our team just one year after he joins the team.

Besides that, Carr’s down year is blamed on the change in offensive systems while his success is assumed based on his experience in our system. Firing DA means new HC, and I don’t know that the Saints will hire the guy that is suing the league to prevent Carr from having to learn yet another offensive system.

 

[dutar76]

Luckily, PFF preseason rankings and predictions arent part of the playoff seeding format.

One problem I see with the these preseason lists is that nobody hangs on to them and compares them with the end results after the season. Not just PFF, but all of them. If they were good, accurate, or even close, you would see these media outlets posting those results. What better way to market your product than to show how accurate its been?

 

[BBarnes]

PFF says Saints will win less than ten games in 2023

PFF predicted the Saints will go under their 9.5 win total for 2023.

www.canalstreetchronicles.com

What is the current outlook for our saints in the media. Why are they so down on us. It's not just PFF, but others like CBS sports say the same thing.

With all the changes - most for the better - as well as the players coming back from injury, we should be much better than last year. We have a viable QB, and also did very well in the draft. We upgraded @:

WR
RB
DT
TE

Everyone we lost were all lesser players than what we replaced them with. Last year, we should have won 10 games easily. Injuries killed us. Not to mention bad coaching. Or @ least tentative coaching.

We are clearly a much improved team this year. Every team in the NFL has question marks. That's the nature of the beast in today's NFL. Not even KC is loaded @ every position group.

So, why do they diss the saints so badly. They even graded us @ 24 in our moves in the off-season. I don't get it. Are they that blind. Most don't even have us in the top 10, yet they project us as division winner, which means a home playoff game.

I think that the media can't get past the perception of the old saints that were always the laughing stock of the NFL. Yet, we won a Superbowl, and are almost every year in contention.

So, what will it take to finally shed this perception. Heck, the cowpukes haven't won much since Jimmy Johnson left in the 90's, yet the media still loves them.

I just don't get it.

I don’t for a second think we still hold that perception of the old Saints. Year after year we were picked to win the SB by many. Even Sean’s last couple years we were picked to do really well, and even the year without Drew Sean’s team was picked by many as a sleeper SB contender.

I just think the Saints will have to show they can be a true competitive team without Sean and Drew.

 

[Rouxble]

Luckily, PFF preseason rankings and predictions arent part of the playoff seeding format.

One problem I see with the these preseason lists is that nobody hangs on to them and compares them with the end results after the season. Not just PFF, but all of them. If they were food, accurate, or even close, you see these media outlets posting those results. What better way to market your product than to show how accurate its been?.

True, and Vegas odds are just as unreliable as the media numbers. Only 4/8 preseason division favorites as of June 1 2022 actually won their division, and that’s being generous since one of the division winners was in a three way tie for best odds to win the division (hard to be wrong on that one).

 

[BBarnes]

To be fair, Carr has absolutely been bad in the red zone. That's not to say he can't improve. It's not to say it is even all his fault (you could certainly say the Saints have a better cache of weapons if all are on the field). But he has definitely been beyond bad in the red zone, especially compared to the rest of the league.

In 2022 he had 11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

In 2021 he has 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in the redzone

In 2020 he had 15 touchdowns to 1 interception in the redzone

In 2019 he had 15 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

In 2018 he had 14 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

So beyond bad is a stretch for sure. However, there’s some things like completion percentage in the redzone that he could clean up. I also think some of the issues they’ve had in the redzone have been him trying to do too much since their offense became stagnant all too often. Who knows if our coaching staff can do anything to improve him.

 

[Chopper Man]

I think it's better to have low expectations and be pleasantly surprised by outperforming those expectations than the opposite.

 

[nolaswede]

The fact that a lot of people had no idea how bad the red zone issue was kinda points at that.

I think it’s a simple fix! When we are on the 16 yard line, we take a 5 yard False Start penalty. Now we are outside the redzone and we are pretty much a lock to score Touchdowns!!!

 

[jahsoul357]

In 2022 he had 11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

In 2021 he has 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in the redzone

In 2020 he had 15 touchdowns to 1 interception in the redzone

In 2019 he had 15 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

In 2018 he had 14 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the redzone

So beyond bad is a stretch for sure. However, there’s some things like completion percentage in the redzone that he could clean up. I also think some of the issues they’ve had in the redzone have been him trying to do too much since their offense became stagnant all too often. Who knows if our coaching staff can do anything to improve him.

It's not necessarily the completion percentage but the TD rates:
2018 - 23.7%
2019 - 20.8%
2020 -19.2%
2021 - 19.3%
2022 - 19.3%

Those are pretty bad, especially when you tie in the interceptions in the red zone. Hopefully, Sneaky Pete can scheme that clean because just for grins and giggles, I checked 2021 stats, based on volume highest number of attempts:

Siemian - 17/35 (48.8%), 123 yards, 10TDs/0INTs, 28.5% TD Rate, 97.38 passer rating (Siemian also had 1 rushing TD in the RZ)
Winston - 16/21 (76.2%), 147 yards, 11TDs/0INTs, 52.3% TD Rate, 134.33 passer rating (Winston also had 1 rushing TD in the RZ)
Taysom - 7/13 (53.9%) 46 yards. 2TD/0INTs, 15.3% TD Rate, 101.28 passer rating (Taysom also had 4 rushing TDs in the RZ)

Siemian threw TDs at a higher rate than Dalton did this past season.

 

[TribuneUK]

Yep, the QB red zone passing TD percentage (specifically in 2021) has always been universally acknowledged as the definitive mark of the "championship caliber" QB.

No doubt. It's just an accepted fact. Definitely no cherry picking.

 

[Bill]

There have been some key/wholesale changes to both the Saints' players and their staff over the last couple of years. This year will be no exception. To assume that in July the media (or any of us for that matter) will know how everything will mesh together for the 2023 season is preposterous. (And perhaps even a bit unwise for those who frequent the sports gaming apps.) There's just too many intangibles.

Of course, once we get a chance to see the pieces come together in the first few 'real' games, many opinions are going to change; some for better and some for worse. Part of the excitement of every new NFL season is the anticipation of what the personnel 'updates' will do to put your favorite team closer to the dream of a championship season.

Do we have the formula right this time? Will we cruise through our division and garner one of the top seeds in our conference? Or will we struggle just to stay in the playoff hunt from week to week? Optimism is understandably high in the Big Easy. Most of us here could probably give a fair list of reason why the Saints should 'easily' finish out with a winning season. But in July the same can be said about every other fan base in the league.

I just hope that the ball will bounce in our direction more times than not this year. If it does, there's no reason why the Saints shouldn't have an outstanding season in 2023. No matter what the media clickbait says.