The Investment Thread (1 Viewer)

Saint_Ward

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Rumors that Amazon was looking into offering a live TV package as well, have now been confirmed.

Amazon creating live TV package - Business Insider
The rumor

https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201975120

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/tech/2017/05/23/amazon-prime-now-let-you-watch-tv-live/102046756/

confirmed.

No details on the pricing or offereings yet.

With Amazon getting into this arena, pushing the boundaries on retail, cloud services, etc. I really do wonder how large they can grow. As long as they keep their laser focus on customer service, speed and cost, I think they can do a lot.

I'm very glad I was able to buy a few shares a while back while it was trading in the $700's... or course, I wish I did this a year or two before when they were in the $400-500 range. Wow.

Today they hit $998/share ad are now hovering around $996.
 

Brown

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Holy Cow what a rebound!

The jobs number is incredible. The U.S. added 312,000 new jobs in December. Expectation was for a gain of 182,000, according to many of economists. Wages are growing too.
Not sure what the Fed is going to do but I suspect that the market has adjusted to the recent rate hikes and accepts the need.

I just don’t see a recession on the horizon but I keep hearing about it...
 

efil4stnias

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Holy Cow what a rebound!

The jobs number is incredible. The U.S. added 312,000 new jobs in December. Expectation was for a gain of 182,000, according to many of economists. Wages are growing too.
Not sure what the Fed is going to do but I suspect that the market has adjusted to the recent rate hikes and accepts the need.

I just don’t see a recession on the horizon but I keep hearing about it...
Powell remarked the Fed will do what it needs to ( regarding the economy ) and that buoyed the market early.
 
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Saint_Ward

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Nice jump today, but we're still down a lot since October, and still major volatility.

S&P500

1546628139389.png

AMZN

1546628194094.png
 
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Saint_Ward

Saint_Ward

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Yeah, for a billionaire's wife, she's pretty attractive. And will be very very rich.

I don't think he's going to have to divest from AMZN though. From what I read, some divorce lawyers who specialize in this stratosphere say by divesting his shares, he'd lose control, thus devaluing the assets. It's in her best interest to allow him to control/run the company. more value long term.
 

Rickboy

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Yeah, for a billionaire's wife, she's pretty attractive. And will be very very rich.

I don't think he's going to have to divest from AMZN though. From what I read, some divorce lawyers who specialize in this stratosphere say by divesting his shares, he'd lose control, thus devaluing the assets. It's in her best interest to allow him to control/run the company. more value long term.
I think she'll get nearly half his shares but he'll get proxy over them. He'll probably be allowed to buy them back over time. His wife isn't stupid. She's already going to be the richest woman in the world after this is over. No need to kill the golden goose.

Either way, I don't see this really affecting Amazon in the long term unless it gets ugly.

To change the subject, while I've owned my vested VMware stock for a while, I've never actually bought other individual stocks until a couple of days go when I bought my first. I took a few thousand from the divident VMware paid me and bought a couple cannabis stocks. I bought into Tilray and Canopy Growth. These are long term investments (at least a year) and I'm not hurting myself (beyond my pride) it they go south. I think there is still a lot of instability in the weed market but I also think there is a huge upside to it over the next few years.
 

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I’ve gained almost everything back from the last dip. I’m within 2400 dollars of my high in October. I think this is why it’s so hard to time the market. Before you can react it rebounds.

Unless there’s a real recession, these corrections seem to move pretty quickly.
 
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Saint_Ward

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I know. You know it had to be coming, though, considering the mess between the US and China.
That and their own self inflicted wound from last quarter..

I had a feeling to get out when they were in the 280's... then I had a feeling to get out when they climbed back to 160 to wait for the next shoe to drop.

Now that I'm in the hole again, I'll wait them out.
 

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Nvidia's China issues are directly related to the Crypto market. They made a bundle off Crypto and China was the biggest market. for it. Nvidia warned in May that their boost from Crypto was coming to an end. https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/nvidia-stock-price-crypto-revenues-going-to-see-big-drop-2018-5-1024127076

IMO, investing in Nvidia should be based on it's potential for Graphics, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous driving. As Superchuck mentioned, these are niche markets with limited growth, except for Autonomous Driving. When (not if) that nut is fully cracked, I think Nvidia will have another profit bonanza on its hands. The problem is that they won't be doing that for another 5-10 years.
 
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Saint_Ward

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Nvidia's China issues are directly related to the Crypto market. They made a bundle off Crypto and China was the biggest market. for it. Nvidia warned in May that their boost from Crypto was coming to an end. https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/nvidia-stock-price-crypto-revenues-going-to-see-big-drop-2018-5-1024127076

IMO, investing in Nvidia should be based on it's potential for Graphics, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous driving. As Superchuck mentioned, these are niche markets with limited growth, except for Autonomous Driving. When (not if) that nut is fully cracked, I think Nvidia will have another profit bonanza on its hands. The problem is that they won't be doing that for another 5-10 years.
I think the root of the problem is that NVidia said that Crypto wasn't that big of piece of their market and Gaming was. But, they seeming have no idea about what their products were or weren't being used for. They thought they had a good handle on their streams, they didn't.

Really sucks.
 

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I listened to a great podcast last night. A rerun. NPR Money episode 688 “Brilliant vs Boring”
Not sure if this link will work but I post anyway.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/planet-money/id290783428?mt=2&i=1000428342191

It talks about a bet made by warren buffet vs hedge fund managers in 2008. A million bucks on a ten year bet for best performance. The hedge fund guys do their thing and Buffet picked an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 index. Hedge fund guys can short, buy options, and use all sorts of other strategies that they have at their disposal. These are incredibly well educated and smart people.

The first year, Buffet got hammered. Down over 45% vs -25% for hedge funds. Buffet beat them for each of the next 3 years. At the end of 2016 with one year left on the bet, Buffet was ahead +66% to +22%. He ended up winning the bet.

Despite that, the hedge funds believe they would win if they made the bet again. Buffet, they surmise, had some luck on his side. Hmm...

The podcast explains my whole rationale to investing. After 35 years I have essentially ‘given up’ trying to beat the market. I’m happy to track the market. I still own individual stocks and sometimes buy and sell them but generally when I’m buying, it’s an ETF that tracks and index. I buy either the spy or qqq these days. When the market drops over .5%, I get more.

I’ve paid and still do pay people to beat the market. I track their performance every 6 months. Some years they beat the market, some years they don’t. Over a 10 year period though, not one of them has beaten the S&P 500 over that period.

So I posit this here for educational purposes. When I was starting out, not much was known about these index funds. They weren’t popular and ETF’s hadn’t been invented. Now though, it’s easy to ‘buy the market’. It’s boring and sometimes it seems stupid but history proves it works better than the alternative.

Not to throw cold water on this thread because I still think individual companies are worthwhile investments.
Knowing what I know now, if I was just starting out, I’d go the index route with some set aside for my ego.

#RipJohnBogle
 
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