The Investment Thread (18 Viewers)

[SaintInBucLand]

Always nice when you can play with house money.

Yeah it was the right thing to do.. if I had held them and sold when I did at 3:55 today I would have made a lot more but was very happy with my returns today.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Not if you're paying attention to things. Volatility today makes shorting a ton of fun.

Also Second Sight Medical(EYES) was up 10% today.

I don't short or do any plays beyond trying to find value and long to medium term holds.

And it was more a comment about the overall market and most folks 401k's where you can't do those kind of plays.

 

[B4YOU]

Probably a bit of both. Supply chain issues are pretty diverse, so I'm not shocked it would hit Walmart or other diverse stores more. The question will be how target fairs. Amazon might be another close example.

I agree with the guy at the end....using home depot as an example isn't an apples to apples comparison. Especially with home valuations being crazy. Up until recently it was pretty cheap to take an equity loan.

Home equity lines in B$ have steadily fallen since 2009 per Fed tracking. I think there are several things to look at:

• Listening to the former Walmart CEO say they overbought seasonal retail and now they are stuck with ridiculous amounts of stock. Seasonal items showed up late and cost more.
• Increasing food and fuel costs cut into retail for lower income buyers
• Walmart/Target still see themselves as retailers with accessory grocery. They are the cheapest grocery option for my market. They aren’t maxing profit on this.
• Homeowners have cash but values have shifted. Target CEO talked about a shift to experience based item. Home improvement improves lived experiences. Travel is experience. Cheap Chinese short-term purchases don’t fit homeowner values. Long-term upgrades from a HD project/reno fits those values.

I really like Target. I think their small-format stores are a winner. It’s the Aldi/Lidl of combined retail/grocery. How much leverage do you create when you tell 3 brands you can only fit 1 in this new format?

Edit: Cash-out refi loans did spike in 2021 and refi saved homeowners an average of $2800/yr. Homeowners have cash.

 

[DaveXA]

Home equity lines in B$ have steadily fallen since 2009 per Fed tracking. I think there are several things to look at:

• Listening to the former Walmart CEO say they overbought seasonal retail and now they are stuck with ridiculous amounts of stock. Seasonal items showed up late and cost more.
• Increasing food and fuel costs cut into retail for lower income buyers
• Walmart/Target still see themselves as retailers with accessory grocery. They are the cheapest grocery option for my market. They aren’t maxing profit on this.
• Homeowners have cash but values have shifted. Target CEO talked about a shift to experience based item. Home improvement improves lived experiences. Travel is experience. Cheap Chinese short-term purchases don’t fit homeowner values. Long-term upgrades from a HD project/reno fits those values.

I really like Target. I think their small-format stores are a winner. It’s the Aldi/Lidl of combined retail/grocery. How much leverage do you create when you tell 3 brands you can only fit 1 in this new format?

Edit: Cash-out refi loans did spike in 2021 and refi saved homeowners an average of $2800/yr. Homeowners have cash.

I would say that experienced homeowners, say 5+ years have cash. Newer homeowners, not nearly so much, and that cash will dwindle when it becomes more difficult to access the equity in their homes when prices drop. The current price spike is unsustainable and quite possibly the market will have a hard landing like what happened in '06-'07. Not saying it's a forgone conclusion, but I think the odds are high that we'll see a large drop in housing prices as interest rates continue ticking up.

 

[efil4stnias]

APPL is approaching some really critical support...

Well so is my retirement account.

lol.

i opened it up Tuesday for first time in about 40 days. Its a bloodbath. I am now below where i started the year ( Jan 1 ) - so the 8% gain thru late Feb PLUS my contributions ytd, gone.

My trusted FA left "separation of service" they called it. They assigned me a new FA who reached out to me in early April and i havent heard from him since. Ive been so bogged down at work, i havent had time to call to " adjust" - but my old FA would have called me outright.

Im not pleased at all.

 

[Turfie]

My nipples are just so jacked.


1) The GameStop NFT twitter handle has risen. The official GameStop handle replying. NFTs are coming to the masses and my favorite company is doing it. I remember this was all speculation for the longest time.

2) Then in 10 business days we have the shareholder meeting. Which will announce the results for GameStop to still issue further stock dividends.

3) Melvin Capital officially exploding.

4) All while we are still at almost 1-year lows to keep buying at discounts.

 

[bclemms]

My nipples are just so jacked.


1) The GameStop NFT twitter handle has risen. The official GameStop handle replying. NFTs are coming to the masses and my favorite company is doing it. I remember this was all speculation for the longest time.

2) Then in 10 business days we have the shareholder meeting. Which will announce the results for GameStop to still issue further stock dividends.

3) Melvin Capital officially exploding.

4) All while we are still at almost 1-year lows to keep buying at discounts.

I have a good friend that is an NFT whale. She made enough money to go from broke single mom living with her parents to world traveler with all new photog gear. Then she went from globetrotter to waitress. Hell of a 6 months she had.

 

[bclemms]

Just sold most of my TSLA puts and a few of my APPL puts (both expire in August). Just grabbed some TSLA and APPL calls that expire next Friday to hedge in case of that dead cat showing up. I had an absolutely monster week so climbing back in the saddle straddle for next week instead of being so exposed.

 

[Turfie]

S&P500 has been red for 7 straight weeks. The longest stretch since the tail end of the dot com crash.

 

[Turfie]

Interesting video. Kevin O'leary - "Somebody's offside somewhere, on a leveraged hedge position. You just don't know who it is yet. And they're big. And we're gonna wake up in the next 10 days, 20 days, and were gonna find out, theyre at 0. And that's a good thing"

 

[SaintInBucLand]

SPY Calls go boom, and I have a feeling Costco's numbers are going to be far better than Walmart and Target just because the company is better run, and they don't seem to have made the seasonal mistakes the other two made.

 

[Turfie]

Best Buy did not tank after earnings.

 

[bclemms]

Best Buy did not tank after earnings.

It was already super cheap. Think it's running at 6.5 PE ratio. Compare that with TSLA that is still running up around 90.

PE ratios mattering again is bring rational thinking back to the markets.

 

[Turfie]

I wonder if Top Gun 2 will be the ‘catalyst’ for an upcoming spike with AMC and its basket friends.

 

[Turfie]

I wonder if Top Gun 2 will be the ‘catalyst’ for an upcoming spike with AMC and its basket friends.

Looks like the spike came just before Top Gun