The Investment Thread (9 Viewers)

[Turfie]

Well. 0.75% interest hike. Not that surprising. Markets and crypto seem to like this and Powell’s comments.

I wonder if we will have a strong rally.

 

[Turfie]

The devil made me do it

 

[B4YOU]

Well. 0.75% interest hike. Not that surprising. Markets and crypto seem to like this and Powell’s comments.

I wonder if we will have a strong rally.

Mortgage rate hit 6.3%. Give it 2-3 months and we see some markets with -5% to -10% home values.

Mortgage rates hit 6.3%—the real cost to buy a house has officially spiked over 50% in just six months | Fortune

We haven't seen mortgage rates go up this fast since 1981—a year that saw mortgage rates top 18%.

fortune.com

 

[DaveXA]

Mortgage rate hit 6.3%. Give it 2-3 months and we see some markets with -5% to -10% home values.

Mortgage rates hit 6.3%—the real cost to buy a house has officially spiked over 50% in just six months | Fortune

We haven't seen mortgage rates go up this fast since 1981—a year that saw mortgage rates top 18%.

fortune.com

Yeah, it's coming. Here in my neck of woods a detached SFH is $1.2 to $2 million. They're not gonna sell when the monthly note is approaching $10k per month.

 

[B4YOU]

Yeah, it's coming. Here in my neck of woods a detached SFH is $1.2 to $2 million. They're not gonna sell when the monthly note is approaching $10k per month.

DC median home price went from 435k in 2007 to 345k in 2009 and didn’t hit 435k until 2012. Median prices are in the low 700s today.

Detached SFH went from 750k in 2019 to 1.3M in 2022. New detached SFH just don’t get built inside the beltway for DC or NoVa. However, couples making 300k are a dime a dozen.

My guess: Condos will drop 15%, row houses 10%, and SFH drop 5%.

 

[DaveXA]

DC median home price went from 435k in 2007 to 345k in 2009 and didn’t hit 435k until 2012. Median prices are in the low 700s today.

Detached SFH went from 750k in 2019 to 1.3M in 2022. New detached SFH just don’t get built inside the beltway for DC or NoVa. However, couples making 300k are a dime a dozen.

My guess: Condos will drop 15%, row houses 10%, and SFH drop 5%.

Well I'm in a TH in Fairfax, if it drops 10%, it will put the value of my home about where it was when i bought it a year ago. I won't complain though. Hopefully it will be a while before i sell.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Woke up this morning to my puts printing money.
That pop yesterday after the rate hike and the Powell questions was complete Fugazzi.

 

[Rickboy]

Checked my 401k and

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Checked my 401k and

yeah don't look at your investments right now... not for a while. It's going to get worse too.

But this is an amazing market if you know how to trade trends and sentiment.

 

[bclemms]

I still think the market is probably going down. Maybe even a long way down. I'll put at 60% chance of finding new lows at least once in the next 6 weeks.

I just bought a lot of AAL $13 calls for July 29. Here is my thinking. If the market finds a bottom here, then airlines are going to scream. American it is difficult to find a seat on a plane last minute and they are absurdly expensive. The next earnings report is going to be a banger, I'm sure of that. They report on July 28. If the market finds a bottom here then it's going to run in to the earnings report and then blow the lid off. I think there is a 60% chance I lose my total investment. However, I think there is a 40% chance that I can run a 300% gain. #PotOdds

 

[SaintInBucLand]

SPY just gave up all its gains from last year and crossed the barrier under $368.27

 

[SaintInBucLand]

I still think the market is probably going down. Maybe even a long way down. I'll put at 60% chance of finding new lows at least once in the next 6 weeks.

I just bought a lot of AAL $13 calls for July 29. Here is my thinking. If the market finds a bottom here, then airlines are going to scream. American it is difficult to find a seat on a plane last minute and they are absurdly expensive. The next earnings report is going to be a banger, I'm sure of that. They report on July 28. If the market finds a bottom here then it's going to run in to the earnings report and then blow the lid off. I think there is a 60% chance I lose my total investment. However, I think there is a 40% chance that I can run a 300% gain. #PotOdds

Why would you lose all your money on options, just get out if things aren't trending the way you like, no reason to diamond hand an option.

 

[bclemms]

Why would you lose all your money on options, just get out if things aren't trending the way you like, no reason to diamond hand an option.

1. I can't lose all my money in the market or even enough to make me uncomfortable.
2. I have puts in APPL, TSLA and 2x short oil.
3. I'm starting to invest, something I haven't done in years because we were in a bubble. I buy when everyone else starts selling. Picking up some tech companies today that have fallen 70-80% in the last 6 months. I have just started to buy.

This is the market coming to grips with PE ratios due to rising rates and inflation. Buy good, cheap companies now and the downside is limited, particularly if you are also short companies that are still extremely overpriced.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

1. I can't lose all my money in the market or even enough to make me uncomfortable.
2. I have puts in APPL, TSLA and 2x short oil.
3. I'm starting to invest, something I haven't done in years because we were in a bubble. I buy when everyone else starts selling. Picking up some tech companies today that have fallen 70-80% in the last 6 months. I have just started to buy.

This is the market coming to grips with PE ratios due to rising rates and inflation. Buy good, cheap companies now and the downside is limited, particularly if you are also short companies that are still extremely overpriced.

I was talking about this statement here specifically. "I think there is a 60% chance I lose my total investment."

Just wondering why you would hold onto calls if things were not looking favorable for you? If they are July 28 calls you definitely have some time to get out.

Would you just hold bad calls all the way to the end?

 

[DaveXA]

I was talking about this statement here specifically. "I think there is a 60% chance I lose my total investment."

Just wondering why you would hold onto calls if things were not looking favorable for you? If they are July 28 calls you definitely have some time to get out.

Would you just hold bad calls all the way to the end?

Well, if you have 40% odds to make 300%, probably worth the 60% odds of losing your money.