The One Single Factor that will Put Us Back in the SB, or end it early (1 Viewer)

[Swimmer]

actually... if Hartley makes that FG in OT against ATL in week 3... we're already division champs and have the # 1 seed locked up (ATL would be 11-4, we'd be 12-3 and have head-to-head tiebreaker) so Drew and all starters that have sufficiant back-ups would be sitting this week against TB.

that said... a moderate running game that combines w/ our passing game should be good enough to win as long as we don't turn the ball over. remember... most of the season our running backs were Ladell Betts, Julius Jones and Chris Ivory getting spot duty w/ the injuries to Thomas & Bush... as well as our supposed # 3 RB (Lynell Hamilton) on IR since preseason.

RBs need to do just a lil bit better in my eyes... O-line REALLY needs to step it up... and we need to stop turning the ball over (Drew stop throwing picks... though i'm ok w/ the 3rd & 20 bomb INTs that are pretty much nothing more than punts 1 down early)

Completely agree with your point about the run. Last MNF it was exciting watching Brees weave his way through blitzers on nearly every play. However, without a running a game, he will get knocked out if he has to scramble like that on 70% of the plays during the playoffs

 

[Nutria]

Based on what we've seen this season, I don't think that we can expect a large number of take-aways, particularly picks, but the defense is playing much better in general, so that compensates for the lack of INTs.

 

[FGE413]

Agree with the poster who said turnovers killed us in week 3, too. If we don't turn it over 3 times (Brees had another ill-advised desperation shovel pass picked off in that game, too...Ivory fumbled in Falcons territory), we don't even go to OT. We committed 4 turnovers vs. Arizona - 2 were returned for TDs and 1 (the pick that Betts let bounce off his hands), gave the Cards the ball inside our 5 and they ended up scoring a TD. No turnovers in that game, The Cards don't score a single TD. Against CLE, Brees throws 4 picks, including 2 pick sixes.

Even if our defense doesn't force as many as last year, we can't give away as many as we have this year (especially in our losses).

I do agree that the running game is important, too. Part of the reason the Falcons were able to blitz, blitz, blitz w/ very little repercussions is b/c for most of the game we had no running attack to keep them honest (Pierre got going a little bit at the very end, but for most of the game, it seemed like we were mostly held to 1 and 2 yd rushes).

 

[SaintJKA]

In the playoffs last year we had 8 forced turnovers to our one turnover. It's that simple. If we hit close to those numbers again we will be playing the Pats in the SB, regardless of who we play where on the way. If we get near 50-50 it will be an early playoff exit. It's that simple.

Steve Young, is that you?

 

[BigA3723]

We just beat the top seed in the NFC with a 1-1 turnover ratio and 10 bad calls! The Saints can beat ANY TEAM OUT THERE. No special conditions or gimmick are required!

It's a little scary how dominant our performance was over Falcons and yet it was only a 3 point win! Take away the bad flip out pass for score, the penaties that was 50% of their only winning drive, the flinch that negated a TD, this could have easily been 24-0 win!
Our team is much better in defense this year and can win even with turnovers, but why continue to sabotage ourselves! Brees needs to practice against pressure just a little more because I'm sure we will get all out pressure from here on out, just like they have been doing to Vick! Brees hasn't really had a bad throw interception deep like he was having early on, so he has improved greatly, but the hasty flip out to avoid sack was ill advised and came close to giving away a game we dominated so fully!

BTW, the tears of the falcon fans are DELICIOUS!!!

 

[Nutria]

It's a little scary how dominant our performance was over Falcons and yet it was only a 3 point win! Take away the bad flip out pass for score, the penaties that was 50% of their only winning drive, the flinch that negated a TD, this could have easily been 24-0 win!

All true, particularly the Falcon tears, but you can also "take away" the two Falcon fumbles and some other breaks. Every team is dominant if you subtract your team's errors and include the other team's.

 

[Mutt]

I think the ONE player who will get us to the SuperBowl is Ivory. If he is healthy, and we have him as a threat breaking long runs - this will open the field for Drew and receivers.

Without a truly reliable run threat, being one dimensional is hard to go far in playoffs.

 

[MLU]

In the playoffs last year we had 8 forced turnovers to our one turnover. It's that simple. If we hit close to those numbers again we will be playing the Pats in the SB, regardless of who we play where on the way. If we get near 50-50 it will be an early playoff exit. It's that simple.

I know that people argue that the Saints are -5 right now with an 11-4 record going into the last game in which the team is favored to win. However

Teams the Saints lost to:
Atlanta (+13)
Arizona (-3)
Cleveland (+2)
Baltimore (+4)

Team the Saints defeated:
Minnesota (-12)
San Fransisco (-3)
Carolina (-7)
Tampa Bay (+8)
Pittsburgh (+14)
Seattle (-9)
Dallas (-3)
Cincinnati (-5)
St. Louis (+5)

Now to explain the anomalies of the three teams with positive turnover ratios that the Saints defeated:

Tampa Bay was simply overwhelmed by big plays. Every defense the Saints might face from here on out will be much, much better and will try to prevent the Saints from making big plays as we have seen all year. Tampa Bay's Safeties are the worst tandem the Saints played this year (by far) and it showed.

Against Pittsburgh the Saints were +1 for the game. The Steelers recovered one of their own fumbles, but the Saints recovered the other fumble (by Heath Miller) at mid-field setting up the last TD and an interception to end the game.

Against St. Louis the Saints were +1 for the game again.

NFC Playoff Teams:
Atlanta (+13)
Philadelphia (+12)
Green Bay (+10)
St. Louis (+5)
Chicago (+4)

I don't think that the Saints have to match a +7 ratio turnover differential last season because this year's defense is very good when focused. Last year those turnovers compensated for poor defense. This year for the most part we have seen a very aggressive and sound defense that truly does rank among the league's best.

We saw what happened at Baltimore, but the games against Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, etc. (that have very good running games) the Saints defense showed that they're capable of shutting some very good runningames down. Outside of the Baltimore game, a couple plays at the end of the game in the first Atlanta game when the defense was gassed, one play against Pittsburgh and one play against Atlanta the second go around the run defense has been outstanding. I fully expect the intensity to be high each week of the playoffs and they will use the Baltimore game as a reminder to what can happen when they play sloppy and without focus.

If they do this and keep the turnover ratio no worse than even, I don't see anyone defeating the Saints.

 

[Swimmer]

Well, this season, the turnovers have been all about Drew. I think he'll be fine going forward (one of the picks this week was Abraham's making a great play), as he has been making, for the most part, more Drew Brees throws instead of the Aaron Brooks mistakes from early in the season.

This is a really interesting response. I was a little of Drew last year thinking he got too amped up in big games. In the playoffs, he went aces. I thought that would take him over the hump into the realm of Montana, Brady and Aikman. Strangely enough that amazing 1 turnover performance in the playoffs seems to have encouraged his gun slinger style more than precision surgeon style. It's money time and it will be interesting to see what style he chooses.

 

[FGE413]

This is a really interesting response. I was a little of Drew last year thinking he got too amped up in big games. In the playoffs, he went aces. I thought that would take him over the hump into the realm of Montana, Brady and Aikman. Strangely enough that amazing 1 turnover performance in the playoffs seems to have encouraged his gun slinger style more than precision surgeon style. It's money time and it will be interesting to see what style he chooses.

There's a little luck involved as well. I was just re-watching the NFCCG and Super Bowl and he had one terrible throw in the NFCCG that a Vikings linebacker (Leber, I think) flat-out dropped. Then there was the heart-stopping pass in OT where Colston bobbled it up in to the air and two Vikings knocked it out of each other's hands (sort of like what Vilma and Shanle did on the 1st Peterson fumbled). And there were one or two balls in the Super Bowl that got batted up in the air (one was a Bush screen), but fell harmlessly incomplete.

I agree Brees seems a bit more gunslinger-ish this season, but...luck has also played a part in the INT total, as this year, he's had a few tip drill INTs, some of which bounced off Saints (Betts vs. AZ and Meachem vs. CAR) and had nothing to do with defensive play. Brees' higher INT total this year is prob a mixture of over-aggressiveness and bad luck on tips and defenders actually holding on to passes.

 

[bleedit1960]

HEALTHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Last year everyone was healthy going into playoffs. We do not need any and i mean any injurys.