***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (5 Viewers)

Eta made landfall across the FL Keys overnight and has now moved west into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Eta is the 12 landfalling tropical system on the US coast this season…the previous record was 9 in 1916.


Discussion:
Eta’s large center made landfall on the middle FL Keys late yesterday evening and has continued westward across FL Bay and is now over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Eta has maintained a fairly well defined circulation, but there has been a general lack of deep convection near the center. Numerous curved bands continue to rotate into southern FL where over 13 inches of rainfall has been recorded. The wind field of Eta has also expanded with tropical storm force winds extending well away from the center and well north along the FL coast.

Track:
Eta will move west to WSW for the next 24 hours steered by high pressure along the US east coast and the upper level trough over the NW Caribbean Sea. After 24 hours, Eta will begin to slow as steering currents collapse and the storm will begin to meander over the SE/E Gulf of Mexico into the middle of the week. It is possible that Eta stalls over the warm waters of the Gulf loop current. By later this week a strong upper level trough is expected to approach the southern plains and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and this feature should begin to turn Eta north and then northeast back toward FL. The ECMWF is the most consistent with this solution, while the GFS is completely different and shows a much weaker trough and drifts Eta west into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is indicating a slow northward and then NNE motion bringing Eta, toward the west coast of FL by late this week. Given the complex steering pattern toward the end of the week confidence is low regarding the track forecast and large changes remain possible.

Intensity:
Eta is entangled in the upper level trough over the NW Caribbean Sea and this is resulting in limited convection near the center, even though the storm is passing over warm waters. Wind shear and dry air is lurking around the system and limited convective bursts are likely a function of dry air intrusion into the center. As Eta moves into the SE Gulf of Mexico, there may be a window where shear relaxes allowing slightly more intensification, especially since Eta will be over the very warm and deep loop current waters. However, there is a massive amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and this dry air will likely intrude into the center at times keeping intensification in balance. The official forecast brings Eta to a minimal hurricane over the SE Gulf of Mexico before weaken as shear increases by late week.

Tropics:
Two other areas of interest have developed in the Atlantic basin and 97L over the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of developing into a tropical system while the tropical wave approaching the Caribbean has a medium chance of developing later this week. The next tropical storm will break the previous record for the most tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
 

Looks like he's mostly driving down 6th Ave (aka Sistrunk Ave). Started near down town Ft. Lauderdale and working his way west to I-95.

It's mostly kind of 'the hood', but an area where they've been slowly re-investing to build it up a bit. The main road, Sistrunk, is prettier. Just a lot of old businesses.
 
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Eta nearly stationary over the SE Gulf of Mexico off the western tip of Cuba.

Discussion:
Eta has been drifting to the southwest over the last 24 hours and is now located just off the western tip of Cuba. Overnight extremely deep convection with cloud tops to -90C have developed on the southeast side of the center of circulation. However it appears the low level center is just to the northwest of the blow up of thunderstorms and not directly in the center. Eta has become nearly stationary with the steering currents nearly collapsing overnight.

Track:
Eta is on the western side of a developing mid level ridge over FL and within the circulation of a trough of low pressure over the NW Caribbean Sea. The mid level ridge is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours allowing Eta to turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed. It appears that much of the forecast track will depend on the intensity of Eta over the southeast and eastern Gulf of Mexico with a stronger system feeling more of a broad trough over the southern US and a weaker system being directed more west by a narrow low to mid level ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models that are showing a stronger Eta bring the storm toward the N and NNE and make landfall along the eastern US Gulf coast where the weaker models bring turn Eta west and WSW and keep the system over the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast track is down the middle of the large guidance spread and significant changes in the forecast track are likely as one solution becomes more apparent than the other.

Intensity:
Eta is maintaining a deep convective burst on its southeast flank this morning and wind shear is expected to remain generally light for the next 24-48 hours. Eta continues to be surrounded by very dry air and some of this dry air is working into the center of circulation at times. Some models continue to show a more organized and stronger Eta over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but the majority of the intensity guidance show a weakening tropical system as Eta moves northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast follows this thinking as wind shear and dry air will likely increase over Eta by the end of the week.

The forecast intensity and track are or lower than average confidence.

Sub-tropical Storm Theta:
The 29th tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. While this storm is not expected to affect land, it breaks the record of 28 tropical storms from 2005 now making 2020 the most “active” hurricane season in recorded history.

Caribbean Sea:
Another tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will move westward into the central and eastern Caribbean Sea over the next few days where conditions will become increasingly favorable for development. The general steering is toward the west and in the direction of the western Caribbean Sea and central America somewhat similar to the first portion of the track of Eta. Development chances for this wave are now at 70%.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
 
Nowthey saying it could go back East eventually. They have little confidence in current cone. They are tired too. It might be Thanksgiving day if this thing ever hits land. At least it has plenty dry air.
 
With all these Greek-alphabet storms ... has anyone else had the explicit lyrics of 2 Live Crew's "Fraternity Record" running through their mind?

"<bleep> the Betas ... <bleep><bleep> the Betas!
<bleep> the Zetas ... <bleep><bleep> the Zetas!"
 

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