***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (4 Viewers)

[Madmarsha]

i was in Miami in 05 visiting my sister and flew out a couple of hours before they closed the airport for Katrina there. When I landed I talked to my sister who had rode out the storm in a closet and I was thankful she was ok. Right after I talked to her I turned in the news and it was headed here. I’m still not certain that storm wasn’t stalking me.

I remember watching that footage. Giant trees with giant root system yanked out of the ground. Was like, Dang, Miami. At that time, I don't think we were in the CoU here. So it was you!

 

[Zack Lee]

I remember watching that footage. Giant trees with giant root system yanked out of the ground. Was like, Dang, Miami. At that time, I don't think we were in the CoU here. So it was you!

my bad

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Weather Channel says Eta just got a little "tug".

that usually slows me down for a day or two - let's see if it works

 

[DaveXA]

that usually slows me down for a day or two - let's see if it works

If anything, that gets me going for a day or two.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

If anything, that gets me going for a day or two.

i meant getting one

 

[DaveXA]

i meant getting one

Ah, lol

 

[gboudx]

Eta moving toward the west coast of FL and become a hurricane

Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and storm surge watches and warnings are issued for portions of the FL west coast

Discussion:
After nearly stalling over the SE Gulf of Mexico in the last 24 hours, Eta began to move toward the NNE yesterday afternoon and the center reformed NE under an area of deep convection. The Key West and Tampa radars at times have been showing and eye like feature located about 140 miles to the SW of Tampa Bay. The USAF mission currently just arriving into Eta indicates the tropical storm has once again attained hurricane status with 75mph winds. With that said, the overall cloud pattern of Eta is not as organized as earlier and it is likely that some dry air has worked into the center this morning.

Track:
After much uncertainty the last few days on the track forecast, Eta has begun to move northward at a faster rate of speed than expected. In the last 24 hours, the multi model consensus has come into much better agreement that the broad trough over the southern US will in fact pick up and recurve Eta into the western coast of FL. This has required a significant shift in the official forecast track to the east and at a much faster rate of speed. On this track Eta will likely make landfall north of the Tampa area Thursday afternoon and then turn increasingly toward the ENE on Friday.

Confidence has increased with the track forecast given the likely increasing interaction now between Eta and the trough over the southern US.

Intensity:
Eta looks decently defined on both Key West and Tampa radars with a mid level eye-like feature and numerous curved bands. It appears that some dry air and moderate southwesterly wind shear continue to influence Eta and this has held any sort of rapid deepening in check. Conditions looks somewhat favorable for some slight additional intensification this morning, but wind shear will begin to increase later today and tonight and Eta should weaken as it approaches the FL west coast. With that said, the HMON and HWRF hurricane models continue to show a stronger system approaching the FL coast on Thursday so there remains some degree of uncertainty on the intensity side of the forecast.

98L:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is likely to develop over the western Caribbean Sea late this week into this weekend. As the wave moves westward conditions will become increasingly favorable for development and a tropical cyclone is likely to form. At this time a slow westward motion is expected portions toward areas heavily impacted by Eta last week.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[gboudx]

Tropical storm Eta has made its 4th landfall this morning near Cedar Key, FL.

Eta is starting to rapidly weaken due to strong upper level southwesterly wind shear over the system and interaction with the land areas of FL. Eta will continue to move NE with an increase in forward speed and likely become extratropical in the next 48 hours ending the saga of this storm which formed on 10-31.

With Eta’s departure, one would hope that the 2020 hurricane season would begin to slow some, but the Caribbean Sea has been an extremely favored development region since the first part of October and this pattern looks to continue with 98L. This tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean Sea is slowly becoming better organized and it is likely that a tropical depression will form over the next 24-48 hours. 98L is expected to move westward and gradually slow in forward motion while approaching either central America of the western Caribbean Sea. Some of the global model guidance is extremely aggressive with 98L and make it another significant western Caribbean hurricane by this weekend into early next week.

The continuation of the Atlantic basin 2020 hurricane season appears to be a function of the moderate La Nina event unfolding in the eastern and central Pacific waters which tends to highly favor tropical development in the Caribbean Sea, especially late in the season. Additionally, the upper level pattern over the US is more like early October than mid November with large scale ridging over the southeastern US and SW Atlantic Ocean which favors tropical development to the south of this feature over the Caribbean Sea and is also responsible for the continued warmth over much of the nation east of the Rockies. Lastly, water temperatures have been running above average for much of this season and this continues, especially in the Caribbean Sea where very deep and warm waters remain present which helps to fuel tropical systems.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[superchuck500]

Carolinas into the mid-Atlantic getting pounded with rain.

 

[gboudx]

Nicaragua and Honduras gonna get hit again. "Iota" is the next name.

New tropical depression forms in the central Caribbean Sea…the 31st of the highly active 2020 hurricane season.

Discussion:
The overall cloud pattern with 98L has become increasingly better organized over the last 24 hours and a well defined low level circulation is present in both visible satellite data and satellite wind derived data. The convective pattern is slowly organizing with increasing banding features especially to the east and north of the low level center. Based on this the system is upgraded to the 31st tropical depression.

Track:
TD 31 is situated south of a large mid level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and this ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place and direct TD 31 on a westward track for the next 48 hours. After 48-60 hours there is some disagreement in the track reasoning as the hurricane models and the UKMET show a more WNW to NW motion into the far western Caribbean Sea and some potential threats to the Yucatan and Belize while the rest of the model track guidance takes TD 31 into or close to central America in the area devastated by hurricane Eta last week. Some of the downstream track forecast will likely depend on if the low level center of TD 31 reforms or relocates during its development stages over the next 24 hours.

Intensity:
It appears likely that TD 31 is poised to become a significant hurricane event in the western Caribbean Sea. Nearly all factors are satisfied for a period of rapid to extreme intensification and it is likely that once an inner core forms TD 31 with rapidly become and hurricane and then likely a major hurricane. Given the conditions are nearly the same as with Eta that saw an intense period of intensification, the likely outcome for TD 31 is similar. NHC brings the system to a 110mph hurricane in 72 hours and this may be on the low and slow side.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[bonnjer]

What happens when we run out of Greek alphabet? With that way this season is going, I'm only half kidding by asking it.

 

[gboudx]

What happens when we run out of Greek alphabet? With that way this season is going, I'm only half kidding by asking it.

Hurricane facts: What happens when we run out of Greek letters?

Subtropical Storm Theta made headlines as the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season this week. It’s a record never before crossed on the World Meteorological Organization&#82…

www.orlandosentinel.com

“The WMO has no policy or procedure in place should the Greek name list be exhausted, and there is no evidence to suggest that exhausting the Greek list is even remotely possible,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesperson and meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.

2020: Oh yeah? Hold my beer.

 

[faceman]

What happens when we run out of Greek alphabet? With that way this season is going, I'm only half kidding by asking it.

Greek names will never be retired. If Zeta is "retired" it will be listed a Zeta 2020 and the name will be used in following seasons.

 

[HoustonGold]

Anyone have the estimated miles ETA has traveled? It’s still going it looks like heading for Iceland or something like that.

 

[HoustonGold]

Well looks like we are done now for the season. What a crazy season it was! I’m putting up my Christmas decorations today before the game. Hopefully the next time I post on this thread it has been converted to the Snowstorm thread.