***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (4 Viewers)

[jboss]

Hearing it's not likely to move far enough west to affect LA due to pressure patterns. But it is 2020 and no one is safe from it's wrath so

 

[gboudx]

Tropical storm watches issued for southern FL

Tropical storm warnings issued for central Cuba and the NW Bahamas

Discussion:
The center of Eta has been reforming over the last 24 hours in multiple locations over the western Caribbean Sea. The most recent reformation has been to the west of the previous center and lies to the west of the large mass of deep convection currently over the western Caribbean Sea. While the overall circulation is improving to some degree, the convective organization has changed little with little banding and most of the deep thunderstorm activity sheared to the east side of the circulation. The latest USAF mission indicated that Eta has not intensified into tropical storm and remains a tropical depression status.

Track:
Eta is coming increasingly under the influence of an upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this feature will drop ESE this weekend into early next week and result in Eta’s “S” shaped track near FL and then north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Eta is moving ENE this morning and this motion will continue today bringing the tropical storm to near central Cuba tonight and Sunday. Eta will then turn north and NW over the FL straits and south FL on Sunday into Monday and then move WNW to NW into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week before turning back north, west of FL by the middle of next week. Eta is also likely to slow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models continue to struggle with the exact track of Eta as the system interacts with the upper level trough which will cut off over the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Thus far Eta has been slower the eject out of the southwest Caribbean Sea as is common with tropical systems in this area, and while models show a faster ENE motion today, this may be a function of the center relocating again closer to the deep convection.

Intensity:
Upper level southwesterly wind shear is increasing over Eta given the position of the storm on the SE flank of the upper level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This hear is likely to continue along with intrusions of dry air. While conditions are generally only modestly favorable for “true” tropical development, Eta is likely to begin to take on more sub-tropical features over the next few days with an expansion of the wind field and less organizing convection near the center. Given the factors at play Eta will level out around a mid range tropical storm, but impacts will be far reaching with a very large area of tropical storm force winds, rainfall, and high tides.

Once over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Eta will find itself within the upper level trough and this pattern is generally unfavorable for any intensification and the intensity guidance shows gradual weakening as Eta slows over the eastern Gulf.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[bclemms]

Looking at NHS models for Eta ... they seem to be predicting this thing to not exceed tropical storm strength.

Are there any under-the-table meteorologists out there doing secret predictions of Eta turning into a Cat 3, like there were for Zeta?

I would say it's not possible with the amount of Carribean and in the gulf and the limited time it has to get it's act together but the conditions for Zeta looked even worse 5 days out when the shear went away and cold water suddenly quit mattering.

 

[HoustonGold]

I would say it's not possible with the amount of Carribean and in the gulf and the limited time it has to get it's act together but the conditions for Zeta looked even worse 5 days out when the shear went away and cold water suddenly quit mattering.

Thankfully for New Orleans area Zeta was a very fast mover and had lots of dry air/wind.

 

[Doug B]

To this day, I don't know what the heck happened with Zeta. Didn't think that type of storm in New Orleans was possible that late in the season so soon after a cold front passing through.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Eta looks like it's going to put a lot of rain on me. My area gets a bit of flooding, so we'll see. I've been trying to get this drainage issue fixed for 3 years. I may have to be out there with a bucket..lol.

 

[bclemms]

Eta looks like it's going to put a lot of rain on me. My area gets a bit of flooding, so we'll see. I've been trying to get this drainage issue fixed for 3 years. I may have to be out there with a bucket..lol.

Somewhere along the East Coast probably going to have some flooding issues but it'll really depend where the outer bands setup. Latest runs are taking it over the keys.

 

[gboudx]

Eta moving toward southern FL with gusty winds and squalls

Hurricane Watches issued for south FL and the FL Keys

Discussion:
Eta is very near the south-central coast of Cuba currently with both Key West and Miami radars show a large mass of squalls and showers to the north of the center across the FL Straits into SE and EC FL. While there has been a continued mass of deep convection near the center overnight the overall organization of Eta remains similar to 12-18 hours ago and the tropical storm appears to be in a steady state between shear, dry air, and soon interacting with Cuba.

Track:
The forecast track for Eta continues to have higher than usual uncertainty as the tropical system interacts with an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta is starting to slow down and will begin to turn northward today with a sharp turn toward the west tonight into Monday. This is in response to a blocking high pressure ridge over the US east coast and the tropical system rounding the northern side of the upper level trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Once Eta moves into the Gulf of Mexico the steering currents begin to weaken and Eta is likely to slow down and meander over the eastern Gulf west of FL for much of this week. There are various track solutions in play for the middle and end of the week, but the increasing consensus overnight has been for a slower and more left (west) track through mid week before some sort of turn back toward the NE by late week.

Intensity:
Eta will be interacting with Cuba this morning and some weakening is expected, but the tropical storm has a broad wind field that extends well to the north and east of the center and to some degree this will likely limit the weakening over Cuba. Additionally, Eta is fighting some shear from the southwest and dry air that is periodically wrapping into the center. As Eta moves into the FL Straits later today and tonight, conditions aloft with weakening shear may allow the system to develop a more symmetric cloud pattern and help focus deep convection near the center. Should this happen, Eta would likely intensify and could become a hurricane near the FL Keys tonight into Monday. The current NHC forecast brings Eta to a 70mph TS or just shy of hurricane status and a hurricane watch is in effect for southern FL and the Keys.

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Eta will be over the warm loop current and if dry air and shear are not overly great, Eta may intensify more, but there is some uncertainty on what the structure of Eta will be over the southeast Gulf by mid week.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[Saint_Ward]

Somewhere along the East Coast probably going to have some flooding issues but it'll really depend where the outer bands setup. Latest runs are taking it over the keys.

Yup. Just my porch tends to get water in heavy heavy rains. So far has happened once this year.

I have sandbags out, just in case.

But yes, luckily the forecast has moved south a bit. So, wind wont be much (expecting 30mph or less). Rain is my only concern.

Are you coming down this way? Or too small to bother with?

 

[Doug B]

The current NHS model for Eta is the first one I've ever seen, I think, that has a storm in the Gulf bearing down on the Tampa area.

Tropical Storm Eta Tracker | Weather Underground

Weather Underground provides tracking maps, 5-day forecasts, computer models, satellite imagery and detailed storm statistics for tracking and forecasting Tropical Storm Eta Tracker.

www.wunderground.com

 

[bonnjer]

The current NHS model for Eta is the first one I've ever seen, I think, that has a storm in the Gulf bearing down on the Tampa area.

Tropical Storm Eta Tracker | Weather Underground

Weather Underground provides tracking maps, 5-day forecasts, computer models, satellite imagery and detailed storm statistics for tracking and forecasting Tropical Storm Eta Tracker.

www.wunderground.com

That is just a ridiculous storm track. Curving around like a snake and taking two weeks to do it.

 

[Tony1Saintfan]

I’m not even close to being a meteorologist but I love to look at the data and make mu guesses. So feel free to tell me I’m wrong or close to right. I was just looking at the jet stream and it looks like the jet stream may take this things and push it off to the east well away from south Louisiana and Mississippi. Your thoughts?

 

[Saint_Ward]

Yup. Just my porch tends to get water in heavy heavy rains. So far has happened once this year.

I have sandbags out, just in case.

But yes, luckily the forecast has moved south a bit. So, wind wont be much (expecting 30mph or less). Rain is my only concern.

Are you coming down this way? Or too small to bother with?

Porch has water in it, but very shallow so far. Rain has finally tapered off. Looks like the bands are now north and south of us... hoping we get some time to dry out.

 

[Doug B]

I’m not even close to being a meteorologist but I love to look at the data and make mu guesses. So feel free to tell me I’m wrong or close to right. I was just looking at the jet stream and it looks like the jet stream may take this things and push it off to the east well away from south Louisiana and Mississippi. Your thoughts?

Looks like the National Hurricane Center is predicting exactly that.

 

[Bill]

What is it with these insane models?
Must they put New Orleans in every cone???