Ukraine (26 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

I don't understand financials enough to make sense of that. Seems like some awfully high rates but they've been pumping cash into a war econ for a few years now.

So interest rates are at 21%
Money supply ( M2 ) is increasing every month (all money in circulation )
2 largest banks no longer underwrite "FHA" mortgages ( meaning backed by govt against default ) because that program has NO MONEY left
Bonds- one way a govt ( or corporation ) can raise money is by issuing bonds. You pay them $100, for them to get $100, and in return they pay you a SET interest ( say 4% ) each year, until bond matures. ( expires ).

In the above links, the bonds are trading/offered BELOW par ( face value ) - interest rates - but another issue is "demand" - people are NOT BUYING them even at discounted price!

The MOEX bonds are Russia attempting to raise $$$/revenue for government to meet expenditures ( because taxation, trade etc is not enough ) and in last 3 months, Russian State Duma ( AKA Congress ) has REVISED the budget 3x - THREE in the last 3 months- all HIGHER. So Russia had targeted the sales of BOND to rake in the difference between estimated revenues from tax/trade etc and budget. ( shortfall when not enough, surplus when more than enough )

So Russia settled on a goal of $$$

here is results of the offers to date :




there are only 8 more auction days left to MEET that goal - so you can see the problem. They wont meet it. Meaning? So where the !@#!@# is the $$$ to come from to keep the Russian government and economy above water? Well there is the NWF- National Wealth Fund, but that was always a "break glass in case of emergency" - you start dipping into that ( gold etc ) thats a REAL problem.

In short, Russia's economic/revenue is in a reaaaaaaally bad spot. No one wants their bonds ( corporate too- they cant raise capital either ), inflation is 9%, interest rates are 21%, Money Supply- M2 is increasing month over month ( which puts pressure on exchange rate, which puts pressure on trade because now the Ruble doesnt go as far as it did just 12 mo ago so if exports are being paid in Rubles, you getting less Ruble than before, but COGS is INCREASING because of inflation )

its a death spiral if you get too far into the spiral, its almost impossible to reverse. Self-feeding cycle starts.

 

[efil4stnias]

And if they start PRINTING MONEY, which they may have to do, that puts even more pressure on the FOREX which cascades to trade, inflation, gdp etc etc etc.

 

[SamAndreas]

I don't understand financials enough to make sense of that. Seems like some awfully high rates but they've been pumping cash into a war econ for a few years now.

I also don't understand that kind of information. What I think about it is that Russia has tried to shift to a war time economy while not admitting to their people that they are in a war. Without mobilizing the entire population to a war footing.

I think that is the secret to shifting to a war production economy, making partners of the citizens who will think about and then save to invest in their country willingly. When that is done, a war can be good for business, a country at war can have a booming war time economy.

We talk a lot about the US setting red lines to prevent escalation of this war. Russia is doing that as well, they have not mobilized their population to a war footing to avoid escalation to an all out war. But without doing that they are going to go broke as a county.

The Important part of this is to get the citizens to save, and then get them to invest that savings to the war effort.

What can help is for the government to limit folks from spending their money on luxury items, like new cars, fuel for cars, tires, sugar, coffee, ect. That frees up money, as well as manufacturing production capacity, for them to spend it as a nation on a war effort. Gets citizens to spend it on war bonds.

What I've laid out here is similar to what the US did to get on a war footing for WWII. It caused our economy to boom during the war and for years after that war.

 

[baarbogast]

This has me a little unnerved. The request for long range weaponry was in the "confidential" section of UAF War Plan given to WH.

NYT publishes, a day later, about the request was for Tomahawks. Who leaked it???

I'm 100000% convince Jake Sullivan and Mike Johnson are on Putin's payroll

 

[efil4stnias]

I'm 100000% convince Jake Sullivan and Mike Johnson are on Putin's payroll

i would certainly think the latter- due to allegiances. Sullivan, while he is certainly a "Richard" - i dont think he would stoop that low.

 

[efil4stnias]

So interest rates are at 21%
Money supply ( M2 ) is increasing every month (all money in circulation )
2 largest banks no longer underwrite "FHA" mortgages ( meaning backed by govt against default ) because that program has NO MONEY left
Bonds- one way a govt ( or corporation ) can raise money is by issuing bonds. You pay them $100, for them to get $100, and in return they pay you a SET interest ( say 4% ) each year, until bond matures. ( expires ).

In the above links, the bonds are trading/offered BELOW par ( face value ) - interest rates - but another issue is "demand" - people are NOT BUYING them even at discounted price!

The MOEX bonds are Russia attempting to raise $$$/revenue for government to meet expenditures ( because taxation, trade etc is not enough ) and in last 3 months, Russian State Duma ( AKA Congress ) has REVISED the budget 3x - THREE in the last 3 months- all HIGHER. So Russia had targeted the sales of BOND to rake in the difference between estimated revenues from tax/trade etc and budget. ( shortfall when not enough, surplus when more than enough )

So Russia settled on a goal of $$$

here is results of the offers to date :




there are only 8 more auction days left to MEET that goal - so you can see the problem. They wont meet it. Meaning? So where the !@#!@# is the $$$ to come from to keep the Russian government and economy above water? Well there is the NWF- National Wealth Fund, but that was always a "break glass in case of emergency" - you start dipping into that ( gold etc ) thats a REAL problem.

In short, Russia's economic/revenue is in a reaaaaaaally bad spot. No one wants their bonds ( corporate too- they cant raise capital either ), inflation is 9%, interest rates are 21%, Money Supply- M2 is increasing month over month ( which puts pressure on exchange rate, which puts pressure on trade because now the Ruble doesnt go as far as it did just 12 mo ago so if exports are being paid in Rubles, you getting less Ruble than before, but COGS is INCREASING because of inflation )

its a death spiral if you get too far into the spiral, its almost impossible to reverse. Self-feeding cycle starts.

Here is Prune60 with his latest video "explainer " LOL

IT WILL GET WORSE

 

[efil4stnias]

Well here is first NK testimonial

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

I do have dual citizenship, US and UK. While I’ve been in NZ for 10 years, there’s always been a few interruptions in my residency (stuck in Australia during Covid, work in Russia, etc) that have messed up my residency/citizenship pathway.

That whole commonwealth realm has its benefits I guess ...

God Save the King !

 

[SamAndreas]

 

[SamAndreas]

 

[Sailorsaint]

Sure, but what does he say?

 

[BigFrosty]

 

[efil4stnias]

ummmmm. Is the translation correct? ( i know its auto translate )

 

[efil4stnias]

 

[staphory]

This has obvious civil uses as well. It will probably be made available globally* available for $1000-$2000.

* US price will be $3 Gazillion and NOT covered by any insurance plan.