Ukraine (18 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

I think he's going to find he won't be benefiting as easily as he assumes he will and changing tack by appearing to seem more moderate or "reasonable" to negotiate because lawmakers are more wise to him this time.

dont disagree- which is why i think this time, Europe is forming a coalition. Call Trumps bluster.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

«Сытые времена прошли». Правительство начало готовиться к кризису в экономике - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Российские власти перезапустили работу спецкомиссии по устойчивости экономики, которая была создана в 2020 году - во время пандемии и экономического кризиса.

www.moscowtimes.ru

It is/was in full swing. Russia is propping up almost every industry in the country. Cant do that, double defense spending, lowered revenues from oil exporting and continue to pay pensions, run 21% inflation, mortgage rates above 40% ( and thats if you put HALF DOWN ), construction of new residences down 25-30% ( conservative estimates ) and have a 4 trillion ruble deficit.

They have been raiding the NWF ( National Welfare Fund ) for over a year now. its out of cash. All it holds currently is gold and Chinese Yuan. Thats it.



The collapse of the old Soviet Union was brought about by the same scenario- Russia tried to keep pace with US on defense spending and literally buried themselves in spending money they didnt have or couldnt pay back what they borrowed.

Its repeating itself again.

Russian debt to GDP is roughly 20%. For the US its 120%. Russia is also energy and food independent, and has plenty of raw resources.

Also I wouldn't underestimate how much pain totalitarian regimes can withstand. North Korea has persisted for 70+ years now. The Soviet Union for it all its faults at least had a committee, and no one (high up) was being thrown out of windows.

 

[Tapxe]

I am glad to see the EU moving on from US as quickly as possible

https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-warns-against-dirty-deal-ukraine-after-trump-putin-phone-call-2025-02-13/

IDK what it really happening, but he's been very and rightfully correct about NATO depending on US for defense too much.

This is definitely making that message resonate in Europe rn.

 

[efil4stnias]

Russian debt to GDP is roughly 20%. For the US its 120%. Russia is also energy and food independent, and has plenty of raw resources.

Also I wouldn't underestimate how much pain totalitarian regimes can withstand. North Korea has persisted for 70+ years now. The Soviet Union for it all its faults at least had a committee, and no one (high up) was being thrown out of windows.

Regimes - yes.

Citizens - not as much.

Russia is divided into 2 halves. West/East of Urals- East of Urals, much of it resembles that of a remote Mongolian village- no paved roads, no reliable utilities, outhouses etc. ( outside of the handful of "city centers" in each region )

The west half however, is fully integrated to the west. By that i mean, they know what having money means.

Causing economic hardship East of the Urals is futile- for they have lived in abject poverty for decades and assimilated.

Cause economic hardship West of the Urals- it will be the exact opposite. Those folks will not return to the "Soviet' ways of State dependence, rations etc.

Thats the real threat to Putins regime. ITs not guns, bullets, tanks, planes, missiles...its losing the one thing that he ( and most Russians are conditioned to ) covets- money=power. Remove the money from equation and its a totally different playing field.

NK has persisted for 70+ years because the last 5 generations have no idea what is outside the borders of NK. Not a clue.

Russians do. Thats a big difference.

 

[boutte]

The Munch Agreement AKA the betrayal of Czchecoslavakia= the Trump-Putin negotiations
The Phony War= what we've seen the past three years
Leibensraum = Canada, Panama, Greenland
Presidential immunity = The Enabling Act
Kristallnacht =Jan 6
Imprison/Deport 11mln immigrants to El Salvador - The Final Solution

Holocaust - Pending

​

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

Regimes - yes.

Citizens - not as much.

Russia is divided into 2 halves. West/East of Urals- East of Urals, much of it resembles that of a remote Mongolian village- no paved roads, no reliable utilities, outhouses etc. ( outside of the handful of "city centers" in each region )

The west half however, is fully integrated to the west. By that i mean, they know what having money means.

Causing economic hardship East of the Urals is futile- for they have lived in abject poverty for decades and assimilated.

Cause economic hardship West of the Urals- it will be the exact opposite. Those folks will not return to the "Soviet' ways of State dependence, rations etc.

Thats the real threat to Putins regime. ITs not guns, bullets, tanks, planes, missiles...its losing the one thing that he ( and most Russians are conditioned to ) covets- money=power. Remove the money from equation and its a totally different playing field.

NK has persisted for 70+ years because the last 5 generations have no idea what is outside the borders of NK. Not a clue.

Russians do. Thats a big difference.

I'm sure they're aware of all of this, at least the ones with any intelligence. However, the question is what can/will they do about it. As a Russian citizen, if you don't like how things are, your options 1) leave 2) actively oppose the Putin regime 3) just go along with things as they are. Those who want to take option 1, have pretty much already done so. 2) will likely end you in jail (if you're lucky) or dead. 3) is simply the path of least resistance.

And even if Putin is deposed somehow, would that really improve things? As the collapse of the Soviet Union demonstrated, simply making nice with the West and allowing foreign investment, etc. doesn't guarantee anything, indeed it can make things worse.

 

[efil4stnias]

I'm sure they're aware of all of this, at least the ones with any intelligence. However, the question is what can/will they do about it. As a Russian citizen, if you don't like how things are, your options 1) leave 2) actively oppose the Putin regime 3) just go along with things as they are. Those who want to take option 1, have pretty much already done so. 2) will likely end you in jail (if you're lucky) or dead. 3) is simply the path of least resistance.

And even if Putin is deposed somehow, would that really improve things? As the collapse of the Soviet Union demonstrated, simply making nice with the West and allowing foreign investment, etc. doesn't guarantee anything, indeed it can make things worse.

i dont disagree on any of that.

But believe it when its said that Russia is running head-long into an economic calamity.

this came out in Jan 2022.

What will Russians live on when they stop working?

Maxim Blant writes that the catastrophic consequences for Russia’s demographics brought on by the war leave the government no choice but to dismantle the pension system. The current pensions are set to be replaced by a social allowance for old age linked to the subsistence level.

russiapost.info

At the beginning of the year, Rosstat disclosed the last population census (experts have many questions about it, but it is the only data we have), which was carried out in 2021, before the war. According to the data, about 13% of the population – approximately 19 million people – refused to indicate the source of the income on which they live, in line with estimates of the size of the shadow economy. Another 45% (about 58 million) said they lived on their salaries. A third noted among their sources of income social payments from the state, i.e. pensions and benefits. This is more than 42 million people. Moreover, for 31 million of them, social payments were their main source of income. If you add about 30 million dependents here (including minors), the balance is no longer in favor of workers.

the current structure of the Russian economy. Workers are different: there are those who produce things and provide the budget with taxes have to support not only children and pensioners, and there are deputies, officials, the army, law enforcement and many more state employees, including spies and propagandists. According to the RANEPA Laboratory for the Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets, the share of public administration in GDP in 2000-20 more than doubled, from 7.1% to 14.6%, while the public sector as a whole surpassed 50% of the Russian economy in 2018. The war has meant not only a multifold increase in military spending and defense orders, but also an acute shortage of labor in the economy. After the start of the mobilization, a number of Russia’s regions were forced to announce “labor mobilization,” sending college and university students to operate machines and run offices.

And we are 2 years later- things havent gotten better, they have gotten worse.

Just announced the other day that "state payments for March will be less than February "

IF the war ends today, Russia is 3-5 years BEHIND in its ability to keep up with US or China. The military is in tatters, the workforce same ( they are importing North Koreans, Africans and Indians as labor ) and have been cut off by Europe when it comes to oil n gas sales.

But the war isnt ending today or next 6 months for that matter. They are holding on by a thread. The opportunity is there to cut the last thread, but doesnt look like Trump has any intent of doing so.