Ukraine (43 Viewers)

[bclemms]

We literally have Russian operatives running the government. Russia was on the verge of collapse and now they will be bigger and stronger than ever.

I don’t necessarily think the Russian operatives are acting with intent, it is entirely Possible it is just basic ignorance but the results are the same.

I really hope Europe treats the US the same as it would treat Hungary or Turkey for acting the same.

This also sends a really clear message to China on Taiwan and South China Seas. If I were Xi, I would kiss Trump’s arse on the Russia deal while moving on Taiwan at the same time.

 

[efil4stnias]

We literally have Russian operatives running the government. Russia was on the verge of collapse and now they will be bigger and stronger than ever.

I don’t necessarily think the Russian operatives are acting with intent, it is entirely Possible it is just basic ignorance but the results are the same.

I really hope Europe treats the US the same as it would treat Hungary or Turkey for acting the same.

This also sends a really clear message to China on Taiwan and South China Seas. If I were Xi, I would kiss Trump’s arse on the Russia deal while moving on Taiwan at the same time.

Europe is coalescing

 

[efil4stnias]

This also sends a really clear message to China on Taiwan and South China Seas. If I were Xi, I would kiss Trump’s arse on the Russia deal while moving on Taiwan at the same time.

I think Xi fully understands Trumps desires- he doesnt need to kiss is arse- a carrot on a stick will work just as well.

I suspect in the coming days there will be some "walk back" of comments from yesterday, but i still think the plan is the same. Trump attempted to blackmail Ukraine in 2020 to remain in power. Now in power, and pettiness, he wont hesitate. But now its minerals he wants. $500B worth.

 

[Saintman2884]

We literally have Russian operatives running the government. Russia was on the verge of collapse and now they will be bigger and stronger than ever.

I don’t necessarily think the Russian operatives are acting with intent, it is entirely Possible it is just basic ignorance but the results are the same.

I really hope Europe treats the US the same as it would treat Hungary or Turkey for acting the same.

This also sends a really clear message to China on Taiwan and South China Seas. If I were Xi, I would kiss Trump’s arse on the Russia deal while moving on Taiwan at the same time.

I'm not entirely 100% sure Trump or his admininistration has this total "warm and cozy" reciprocal "mutual admiration" society for China or even Xi considering many U.S. politicians view China as a rising geopoliitical threat and one militarily in the South China Sea, Taiwan that he'd be totally willing to look the other way and ignore Chinese aggression the same way he does with Putin/Russia. His relationship with Xi is a lot less friendly and more suspicious and currently, most U.S. policymakers, Republican and Democrat, view China as their biggest, staunchest rival or will soon be over the next decade or so.

It's a lot more "personal" with China and one of the few things GOP and Democrats do agree on these days is defending Taiwan from potential Chinese amphibious, land and air invasion. Trump is too stupid or narrow-minded to see what this precedent in trying to force a bad deal on Ukraine to end an illegal war Russia started will be perceived by Chinese leadership. He likely naively believes their two different, unrelated situations independent of one another so it'll likely give some in Chinese intellegence false sense of being over-confident and emboldened.

 

[Saintman2884]

I think Xi fully understands Trumps desires- he doesnt need to kiss is arse- a carrot on a stick will work just as well.

I suspect in the coming days there will be some "walk back" of comments from yesterday, but i still think the plan is the same. Trump attempted to blackmail Ukraine in 2020 to remain in power. Now in power, and pettiness, he wont hesitate. But now its minerals he wants. $500B worth.

Yeah, but how would Trump be able to successfully explain away not trying to defend Taiwan from being invaded potentially and annexed by China in convincing geopoliitical terms and not be slaughtered politically or most GOP senators/congressman losing their jobs come mid-terms. In the case of Ukraine, believe it or not, he's got far more "wiggle room" and political capital to try and appear as a probable peacemaker to end a near-three year long war albeit supposedly aping Russia's preconditions for peace. Ukraine and Zelensky can and more then likely will say no to any Russia keeping its conquered illegal territories, arguing to the international community that doing so sends a message that it rewards Russian aggression and emboldens them to make future threats to the Baltics, Finland, or Poland or some DMZ zone that would be useless if Putin refuses to make any real security guarantees and even if he did, why should Zelensky, E.U. or rest of international community really believe him?

Trump's snarky comments about Zelesnky's poll numbers and eventually their will have to be an election really show how disconnected he is. Does he really believe that Ukraine would actually hold Presidential elections right in the midst of being involved of fighting for its nation's sovereignty and existential being? Yeah Agent Orange, their might be elections for a new Ukrainian president but that likely isn't going to occur until after this conflict is over, not during it. There in a war for their literal survival, butt crevasse I think they have far more important priorities currently.

And why should Zelensky say yes to a bad faith, one-sided peace deal where Russia gets everything and won't commit to future security guarantees but hey, Putin told me he won't invade again, so I trust him at his word over my CIA analysts, advisers and basic geopoliitical common sense.

 

[CoolBrees]

I am glad to see the EU moving on from US as quickly as possible

https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-warns-against-dirty-deal-ukraine-after-trump-putin-phone-call-2025-02-13/

 

[efil4stnias]

Yeah, but how would Trump be able to successfully explain away not trying to defend Taiwan from being invaded potentially and annexed by China in convincing geopoliitical terms and not be slaughtered politically or most GOP senators/congressman losing their jobs come mid-terms. In the case of Ukraine, believe it or not, he's got far more "wiggle room" and political capital to try and appear as a probable peacemaker to end a near-three year long war albeit supposedly aping Russia's preconditions for peace. Ukraine and Zelensky can and more then likely will say no to any Russia keeping its conquered illegal territories, arguing to the international community that doing so sends a message that it rewards Russian aggression and emboldens them to make future threats to the Baltics, Finland, or Poland or some DMZ zone that would be useless if Putin refuses to make any real security guarantees and even if he did, why should Zelensky, E.U. or rest of international community really believe him?

Trump's snarky comments about Zelesnky's poll numbers and eventually their will have to be an election really show how disconnected he is. Does he really believe that Ukraine would actually hold Presidential elections right in the midst of being involved of fighting for its nation's sovereignty and existential being? Yeah Agent Orange, their might be elections for a new Ukrainian president but that likely isn't going to occur until after this conflict is over, not during it. There in a war for their literal survival, butt crevasse I think they have far more important priorities currently.

And why should Zelensky say yes to a bad faith, one-sided peace deal where Russia gets everything and won't commit to future security guarantees but hey, Putin told me he won't invade again, so I trust him at his word over my CIA analysts, advisers and basic geopoliitical common sense.

Your first assumption is that Trump actually cares about the MACRO.

He doesnt. He cares how it can benefit HIM ( his "brand" and name/family )

Once you start looking at all this thru that lens, things become quite clear ( Gaza development, mineral deals in Ukraine ) you think that the US will form some philanthropic arm and take on these contracts? Oh no, he has plans for this personally.

 

[efil4stnias]

I think Xi fully understands Trumps desires- he doesnt need to kiss is arse- a carrot on a stick will work just as well.

I suspect in the coming days there will be some "walk back" of comments from yesterday, but i still think the plan is the same. Trump attempted to blackmail Ukraine in 2020 to remain in power. Now in power, and pettiness, he wont hesitate. But now its minerals he wants. $500B worth.

This is how you deal with Trump

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

We literally have Russian operatives running the government. Russia was on the verge of collapse and now they will be bigger and stronger than ever.

The Russia collapse scenario I always found fanciful.

If the deal is freezing borders (more or less, certainly no more territorial concessions by Ukraine), Ukraine does not recognize Russian conquests, European peacekeepers(probably EU + UK), and eventual admission to the EU, no NATO admission, I think thats about the best Ukraine could realistically hope for in the short term.

If they join EU, EU also has mutual defense pact, so they wouldn't need NATO.

 

[Saintman2884]

Your first assumption is that Trump actually cares about the MACRO.

He doesnt. He cares how it can benefit HIM ( his "brand" and name/family )

Once you start looking at all this thru that lens, things become quite clear ( Gaza development, mineral deals in Ukraine ) you think that the US will form some philanthropic arm and take on these contracts? Oh no, he has plans for this personally.

He's also be emboldened by the fact that Republicans control currently Senate, House, and Presidency. And while its 50/50 even from an optimistic standpoint that Dems will regain control of the Senate in the 2026 mid-terms, most political analysts are arguing very preliminary and prematurely that Dems will win back control of the House and by a pretty significant margin--similar to the 2018 midterms, in a divided government, Trump doesn't have carte blanche and the freedom to do whatever he wishes like right now and there's a very good chance their might be a government shutdown about a month from now and some Dem lawmakers, like Sen. Andy Kim have gone on record that if need be, to slow his arse down and maybe teach him and Musk a lesson, they'll shut down the government until Trump and House Republicans start making some promises that they'll make sure they won't easily break.

In a federal shutdown, Trump and co. can't do sheet besides scream, shout and give long, tangential rants on his Truth Social account and despite his arrogant, bloated bravado, Mike Johnson needs Democratic support to even have a chance at passing a new yearly budget, meanwhile his would-be loudmouth boss makes that task even more impossible daily with his executive orders and delusional rants about owning Gaza, Greenland, Panama Canal or that Canada should become our 51st state. As painful as it might be in the short-run, it might be a regrettable but necessary option for Dems for once to be butt crevasses and refuse to act responsibly and shut down the federal government for a while to get his attention. If it pisses him off, good, that's the point but make it very apparent to MSM and American people as a whole that its Trump's rash, erratic behavior that led to this in the first place that a majority realize he's to blame.

You get that maternal fornicator's attention by saying, "No" repeatedly especially when you have the leverage to do so and if pushed, treat him with as much contempt and behave like an butt crevasse as much as he does to you with no apologies.

 

[Saintman2884]

Your first assumption is that Trump actually cares about the MACRO.

He doesnt. He cares how it can benefit HIM ( his "brand" and name/family )

Once you start looking at all this thru that lens, things become quite clear ( Gaza development, mineral deals in Ukraine ) you think that the US will form some philanthropic arm and take on these contracts? Oh no, he has plans for this personally.

I agree with you at least on the broad general statements you made but even as a NYC billionaire real-estate developer, when his own personal wishes or aspirations become seriously threatened or there's a distinct possibility that their could be numerous threats to his "brand" or his political/financial well-being, Trump never fails to suddenly become interested in analyzing and being worried about solving MACRO issues or dilemmas. He's just never really been significantly pushed or prodded by his enemies in D.C. or the unfair, gritty painful realities of geopoliitics to feel that intense pressure where it becomes so acute he starts to act out in histrionics, wild mood swings and venomous temper tantrums.

 

[efil4stnias]

The Russia collapse scenario I always found fanciful.

«Сытые времена прошли». Правительство начало готовиться к кризису в экономике - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Российские власти перезапустили работу спецкомиссии по устойчивости экономики, которая была создана в 2020 году - во время пандемии и экономического кризиса.

www.moscowtimes.ru

It is/was in full swing. Russia is propping up almost every industry in the country. Cant do that, double defense spending, lowered revenues from oil exporting and continue to pay pensions, run 21% inflation, mortgage rates above 40% ( and thats if you put HALF DOWN ), construction of new residences down 25-30% ( conservative estimates ) and have a 4 trillion ruble deficit.

They have been raiding the NWF ( National Welfare Fund ) for over a year now. its out of cash. All it holds currently is gold and Chinese Yuan. Thats it.



The collapse of the old Soviet Union was brought about by the same scenario- Russia tried to keep pace with US on defense spending and literally buried themselves in spending money they didnt have or couldnt pay back what they borrowed.

Its repeating itself again.

 

[efil4stnias]

I agree with you at least on the broad general statements you made but even as a NYC billionaire real-estate developer, when his own personal wishes or aspirations become seriously threatened or there's a distinct possibility that their could be numerous threats to his "brand" or his political/financial well-being, Trump never fails to suddenly become interested in analyzing and being worried about solving MACRO issues or dilemmas. He's just never really been significantly pushed or prodded by his enemies in D.C. or the unfair, gritty painful realities of geopoliitics to feel that intense pressure where it becomes so acute he starts to act out in histrionics, wild mood swings and venomous temper tantrums.

aka how it benefits him.

If it doesnt, he will change tack. or simply walk away so as not to appear weak/lost.

 

[Saintman2884]

«Сытые времена прошли». Правительство начало готовиться к кризису в экономике - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Российские власти перезапустили работу спецкомиссии по устойчивости экономики, которая была создана в 2020 году - во время пандемии и экономического кризиса.

www.moscowtimes.ru

It is/was in full swing. Russia is propping up almost every industry in the country. Cant do that, double defense spending, lowered revenues from oil exporting and continue to pay pensions, run 21% inflation, mortgage rates above 40% ( and thats if you put HALF DOWN ), construction of new residences down 25-30% ( conservative estimates ) and have a 4 trillion ruble deficit.

They have been raiding the NWF ( National Welfare Fund ) for over a year now. its out of cash. All it holds currently is gold and Chinese Yuan. Thats it.



The collapse of the old Soviet Union was brought about by the same scenario- Russia tried to keep pace with US on defense spending and literally buried themselves in spending money they didnt have or couldnt pay back what they borrowed.

Its repeating itself again.

If the Russian economy is truly on life support, it's going to take years to recover and rebuild all the cumulative destruction, decay and countless trillions lost from oil/natural gas revenues, massive foreign debt owed to China and India, a very shaky, unstable currency deficit and most major sectors of your overall economy drowning or near-collapse, and that also means even if there's a negotiated cease-fire, it will still years and long past when Trump is a memory where the Russian economy and military will begin to remotely recover from being mangled over the last 3 years.

This wasnt/isn't a short war where RU's economic and military losses as well as losing close to one million men can be sufficiently replaced, compensated and re-armed where they even close to.same threat they were pre-2022 invasion and that dire predicament strongly precludes invading other countries. I want to reiterate that again just to underscore that grim, difficult ardous scenario we're discussing here. Some economic, geopoliitical, or military experts have predicted it might take a decade or two for Russia to fully recover from the immense, enormous losses its suffered to only obtain 20% of Ukrainian territory. After the 1973 Paris Peace Accords and our withdrawal from South Vietnam which lead to ARVN's military/civilian regime's collapse by April 1975, it wasn't for another 20 years almost that we were fully involved in a foreign, overseas conflict and it really wasnt until Reagan administration in the early 80's that we fully and completely transitioned to a more stable, peacetime economy overrun by stagflation, cost of living and goods increases across the board and OPEC oil shocks which put the final nails in the old New Deal coalition infrastructure which had been a powerful, influential fiscal force since the 1930's. It also led to the worst economic recession in most western countries seen since the Great Depression in the late 70's.

As difficult as it was here, in U.K. it got really bad by 1975/76 with labor unrest/militancy, a 3-day work week, mass power shortages, IRA paramilitaries began a new bombing campaign in northern Ireland, interest rates sky-rocketing and Callaghan's Labour regime was forced to set up arbitrary price and wage controls, which didnt endear them to their powerful TUC allies who are and remain the backbone of the Labour Party, but even moreso back then. Then it all finally hit a proverbial brick wall when Callaghan advised Ford Dagenban London plant managers to only offer a 5% wage increase and union leaders rejected it and eventually got IIRC, a 25% pay increase which lead to other major industrial strikes with lorry drivers in Hull, gravediggers union in Liverpool, union hospital workers, nurses and doctors went on strike in many British cities. It's called the "Winter of Discontent" from a famous silloquoy line in Shakespeare's Richard III by British analysts, political commentators and historians. It was a major factor into why Labour didn't return back to power for nearly 20 years and its idealogical, social framework and platform was by then, considerably different.

 

[Saintman2884]

aka how it benefits him.

If it doesnt, he will change tack. or simply walk away so as not to appear weak/lost.

I think he's going to find he won't be benefiting as easily as he assumes he will and changing tack by appearing to seem more moderate or "reasonable" to negotiate because lawmakers are more wise to him this time.