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The cap info is public, his agent can do the math and hold out for a better deal. Because of that, this might be a deal that gets signed at the eleventh hour. I definitely think Carr has all the leverage, particularly if he would consider taking his guaranteed $10m and running as an option.
And yes, if Carr wasn’t willing to work with the Raiders, I think it is unlikely he will want to work with us.
Carr no doubt has the vast majority of the leverage. The only thing the Saints have is the threat that they will cut him and he won't get a free agent deal at close to what he would make even with a pay cut here. And I suspect it's true that he wouldn't get $20 to $30 million per year as a free agent this year.
But, the Saints clearly don't want to cut him due to the cap implications so that lessens what little leverage they have. And, he could decide to call their bluff. I'm not sure what Loomis would do if he did call their bluff, but I suspect he would just do the simple restructure this year and cut him next year with a June 1 designation. It's not what I would do, but at the same point it's probably not fair to hire Moore and tell him you are just going to have to roll out the same team, minus Carr, with whatever we can find in the draft for your first year.